SPHERES OF INFLUENCE HAUNT ENERGY SECTOR

United Press International
Feb 11 2009

ANKARA, Turkey, Feb. 12 (UPI) — Energy cooperation with Turkey is
a priority for Moscow, but those ties depend largely on the dynamics
of the regional sphere of influence, analysts say.

Turkey is expected to be a host to a major leg of the planned
2,051-mile Nabucco pipeline that Western nations hope will ease
European dependency on Russian natural gas.

Nabucco would bring natural gas from Central Asia and the Middle East
to European markets. Russia had hoped expansions to the Blue Stream
pipeline through the Black Sea to Turkey, however, would strengthen
its energy position in the region.

Kamer Kasim, an analyst at Turkey’s Abant Izzet Baysal University,
said Moscow would back Turkish objectives in the region in exchange for
cooperation in the energy sector, Trend Capital News reported Thursday.

"Russia can support Turkey in terms of issues regarding the Caucasus
in a bid to persuade Ankara to implement the Blue Stream project,"
he said.

At stake are outstanding issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan
regarding disputes over the Nagorno-Karabakh region and historical
acrimony between Armenia and Turkey from the Armenian massacres under
the Ottoman Empire in World War I.

"If Russia chooses policy to compete with regional powers and exercise
control over the Caucasus region with help of military bases, it
means that Russia does not want Turkey-Armenia ties to normalize,"
said Kasim. "However, if Russia pursues cooperation policy in the
region, it means Russia backs normalizing Ankara-Yerevan ties."