Date: Fri, 13 Feb 2009 14:34:20 -0800 (PST)
Subject: Azerbaijan: Going Sour On Moscow?

AZERBAIJAN: GOING SOUR ON MOSCOW?
Shahin Abbasov

EurasiaNet
Feb 13 2009
NY

Azerbaijani trust in Russia as an unbiased mediator for the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is melting away amid lingering outrage
over a suspected arms transfer to Armenia, and growing interest in
the Western-backed Nabucco gas pipeline project. But with an eye
to Russia’s regional weight, Baku is avoiding outright challenges
to Moscow.

The scandal surrounding an alleged Russian transfer of tanks, armored
combat vehicles, artillery and other materiel to Armenia drives
Baku’s concerns about Moscow’s reliability as a co-chair of the Minsk
Group, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Minsk group is the
body that oversees the Karabakh peace process. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive].

"Russia would seriously undermine its image as an unbiased mediator" if
allegations about the arms transfer are accurate, said Novruz Mammadov,
head of the administration’s international affairs department, Turan
news agency reported. "[S[uch actions do not correspond with Russia’s
Minsk Group co-chair status."

Debate about the arms scandal is expected during the current session
of Azerbaijan’s parliament. In petitioning for such a discussion,
15 pro-government members of parliament also noted that the alleged
transfer raises "doubts about Russia’s sincerity and its impartiality
as a Minsk Group co-chair."

A spokesperson for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stressed to
EurasiaNet that the government plans to "keep the issue in its
focus." Nonetheless, the government has refrained from publicly
questioning Russia’s role in the Minsk Group. "It would be impossible
while everyone understands how important Russia’s role in the Karabakh
peace process is," commented political analyst Hikmet Hajizade.

Azerbaijani officials likewise avoided creating any public scandals
at the January Minsk Group meetings, which took place weeks after
the arms scandal story broke. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan instructed their foreign ministers
to continue negotiations, in cooperation with Minsk Group co-chairs
Russia, France and the United States.

But memories die hard inside Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry. "The fact
that there was a gratuitous, $1 billion arms transfer by Russia to
Armenia in 1996 is forcing us to do it," spokesperson Khazar Ibrahim
commented in reference to the ministry’s ongoing attention to the
arms transfer allegations. (The Russian government denied making the
1996 transfer, just as it has rejected the recent allegations).

Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev reportedly discussed the
alleged transfer with his Russian counterpart, Anatoly Serdukov,
during a visit to Moscow in late January, but the Defense Ministry
has not released any details.

The criticism of Moscow contrasts sharply with Baku’s behavior
following Russia’s August 2008 war with Georgia, when Azerbaijan
pointedly avoided offending the Kremlin. After the November signing
of the Moscow Declaration, a document that binds Azerbaijan to the
non-use of force in resolving the Karabakh conflict, an "atmosphere
of trust" in Russia was said to prevail within the government. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The current changes in position take place against the backdrop
of increased Azerbaijani support for a project that poses another
challenge to Moscow — Nabucco, a heavily Western-promoted pipeline
that would offer an alternative delivery route to Europe for Caspian
Sea gas supplies. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The
project is believed to have been addressed during a February 13 visit
to Baku by the Czech Republic’s prime minister, Mirek TopolÃ~C¡nek,
to discuss energy cooperation. TopolÃ~C¡nek is currently serving as
the president of the European Union Council.

While the head of the Russian parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee
has stated that Moscow does not oppose the Nabucco project, one
January 30 comment published in Kommersant-Vlast predicted that
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin might consider war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh as a way "to prevent
strong competitors from emerging in the European market" for gas.

Russian nationalist Alexander Dugin, thought to be close to the
Kremlin, has asserted that "Nabucco has to be wrecked at any cost
because we are talking about gas geopolitics."

"If we need to initiate new military conflict for this purpose,
we should do it without hesitation," he told Russian journalists on
January 31, RIA-Novosti news agency reported.

The Kremlin has not commented on these allegations, although
Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin in a January 28 interview with
the television channel Euronews stated that Russia does not believe
Nabucco is viable.

Nothing, however, indicates that the Azerbaijani government
is concerned about a Russian military tactic to scuttle
Nabucco. Meanwhile, it continues to play its energy cards
carefully. Even as President Aliyev actively promotes Nabucco, the
State Oil Company of the Azerbaijani Republic (SOCAR) is continuing
to talk with Gazprom about the possible sale of all gas from the
Shah Deniz field to the Russian energy giant. SOCAR and BP-Azerbaijan
recently inspected a pipeline near the Russian border "to define the
prospects of exporting gas from Shah Deniz through the pipeline,"
the Ekspress newspaper reported on February 10.

Baku-based energy expert Ilham Shaban, however, noted that while
SOCAR has small amounts of its own gas to sell Russia for use in
neighboring Dagestan, the government wants to sell the big-ticket item
— Shah Deniz gas — "to Europe via Nabucco and the Interconnector
(Turkey-Greece-Italy) pipelines."

The ongoing talks with Russia about gas sales are just part of Baku’s
constant balancing act, agreed Elhan Shahinoglu, an expert at the
Atlas research center. "Baku has limited capacity to be anti-Russian
because this country [Russia] still, in fact, controls the Karabakh
peace process, while the European energy plans remains quite unclear,"
Shahinoglu said. "Therefore, the government has to keep playing
with Russia."

Editor’s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent
based in Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society
Institute-Azerbaijan.