A CLUB OF FIVE GENTLEMEN

Azat Artsakh Daily
13 Feb 09
Republic of Nagorno Karabakh [NKR]

Or What Platform is the Platform of Stability Preparing? Half a year
has already passed since August 12, 2008, when Prime Minister of Turkey
Ragep Tayip Erdogan proposed in Moscow creating an alliance called
"A Platform of Stability and Collaboration in the Caucasus". Besides
Turkey, their readiness to enter the alliance expressed Russia,
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. To sum up the intermediate results
of this regional project of Ankara, the following questions should
be asked: What has changed in the South Caucasus for this period,
thanks to the Turkish initiative, and how has it impacted the current
processes here? It should be frankly admitted that the Caucasian
Platform has changed nothing and has become, to a certain sense, a
platform (sorry for tautology) for further aggravation of relations
between some of its participants. Immediately after Turkey’s
declaration of its idea, Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia expressed
their mistrust towards the possibility of its realization. And not
only because no corresponding mechanisms of realization of Ankara’s
initiatives were defined that time. By the way, they have not got
their practical drawing up yet, but this is not the reason. The reasons
are quite deeper, and they are in the serious contradictions between
the majority of the member-states of this Platform of Stability,
which doesn’t allow them to come to an agreement and enable their
peacemaking potential. First, in the existing conditions that no
diplomatic relations are available between Armenia and Azerbaijan (with
Turkey), or between Russia and Georgia, one can hardly speak of full
collaboration for discussing and realizing any ideas, though generous.
Second, the process of division of the sphere of influence in the
South Caucasus between the major geopolitical actors, which was
intensified after the August events in Georgia and the recognition
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia, has not been completed yet,
which makes the dividing lines in the region still more intensified.

So, not long before the completion of the term of office of the
Administration of President George Bush, the USA singed a Security
Charter with Georgia, in response to which Russia is going to deploy
a naval base in Abkhazia, as well as air- and military bases in South
Ossetia. Russia stated that the possibility of deploying the bases
was provided by a special intergovernmental agreement between Russia
and Abkhazia. Surely, Moscow has long-term deployment plans for this
region, which is testified by the advice of Speaker of the Russian
State Duma Boris Grizlov for the European Parliamentary Assemblies’
Deputies to proceed from the fact that "it is useless to speak of a
ny way back; Russia has recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and
this is forever and ever", while discussing the Georgia-Ossetia and
Georgia-Abkhazia relations. In response, Georgia is going to deploy
USA military bases in Potty and Marneuly. Third, the quite cruel
struggle over the realization of energy projects, which comprises
both regional and off-regional forces, aggravates still more the tense
relations between the countries of the region. The recent gas crisis
between Russia and the Ukraine has disclosed serious geopolitical
problems, including the notorious project of NABUCCO gas pipeline,
which is flatly opposed by Russia taking it as a threat to its
strategic interests. To prevent the realization of the project,
the Russian "Gasprom" has already suggested Azerbaijan to buy its
total natural gas at a maximum price. Baku has not responded to this
suggestion yet, but President Aliyev’s statement in this regard was
quite notable. Noting the readiness of Azerbaijan for participating
in the project, however, he specified this by the necessity of taking
corresponding political decisions by Europe. Azerbaijan has rather
started both economic and political bargains. At last, another factor
impeding the realization of the Turkish idea is ethnic conflicts,
in particular, the Nagorno Karabakh one. The irony is that Ankara
suggested the Caucasian Platform of Stability and Cooperation also
f or promoting conflicts settlement. However, in fact, Azerbaijan
and Georgia make their participation in this initiative dependent on
these conflicts’ settlement, and they have actually refused the Turkish
mediation. "Official Baku considers the realization of the platform,
which opens ways to the cooperation with Armenia, impossible without
the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement", Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign
Minister Araz Asimov stated in Istanbul at the January 28 meeting of
representatives of the member-states of the Platform of Stability.

Taking into account the above mentioned factors, different and often
quite opposite stances on the way to solving the existing problems,
the failure of discussing the Caucasian Platform in Istanbul was
not a sensation. The five of the member-states could not come to an
agreement. But, will Ankara manage to revive the process and remove
the disagreements between its participants, or is the alliance doomed
to becoming an ordinary club of five gentlemen whiling away the time
at non-binding conversations?