TURKEY NEEDS CONSOLIDATION OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC TIES WITH HER NORTHERN NEIGHBOUR
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
12.02.2009 GMT+04:00
Energy carriers purchase accounts for the considerable part of
commodity circulation of Turkey and Russia: 2/3 of natural gas and
1/3 of oil Turkey imports from Russia.
Turkish President’s latest visit to Moscow was in June 2006 by
then president Ahmet Necdet Sezer. It should be noted that Turkish
presidents do not usually travel around the world; this advantage is
often taken by country’s prime-ministers. On the whole, the president’s
post has more representative functions in Turkey, but the situation
changed with the Islamists coming to power.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ As usual, international visits are paid by the
Prime-Minister, but President Abdullah Gul carries out rather an active
international policy too. Possibly, the reason is that current Turkish
President long occupied the position of the country’s foreign minister.
In the light of changing geopolitical situation the visit of Abdullah
Gul to Moscow is of great significance. Turkey needs consolidation
of political and economic ties with her northern neighbour, which
is also on allied terms with Armenia. Ankara realizes it best that
neither regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict nor normalization
of Armenian-Turkish relations is possible without Russia. Though
hardly anything can Moscow do in relation to the Armenian-Turkish
relations, it is only for the time being. In his interview to the
Russian program "Vesti" the President of Turkey underlined Russia’s key
role in peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "Turkey
hails the trilateral meeting of Moscow between the Russian, Armenian
and Azerbaijani Presidents in December 2008, at the end of which a
declaration was signed on peaceful resolution of the conflict. We
consider that Russia, as the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chair on Nagorno
Karabakh, has a key role in this matter," Gul said.
In the words of the Turkish President, Ankara has long been seeking
ways to normalize relations with neighboring Armenia and has seized
every opportunity of a dialogue. "The World Cup qualifier between our
teams offered us a wonderful opportunity. I paid a visit to Yerevan
then and watched the match with my Armenian counterpart. After
the match we had an excellent and effective meeting with President
Sargsyan. I am happy that the dialogue we opened in Yerevan is going
on," Gul noted.
In this connection it should be noted that any step by Ankara towards
normalization of relations with Armenia is perceived rather nervously
by Azerbaijan, and the visit to Moscow was not an exception. Baku
won’t understand that brotherhood is good but personal interests
are more important. And if today Ankara needs intimacy with Armenia,
she can easily leave Azerbaijan aside. This is what we are gradually
coming to, and various statements of Azeri political scientists on
the conduct of Turkish officials, as well as the Turkish diplomats’
promises that Ankara will never leave Baku face to face with the
Karabakh issue pursue one goal – to mentally prepare the Azeri people
that Turkey Â"swindledÂ" them not only in the Karabakh issue but also
in transportation of energy carriers. And for Baku it is much more
serious than simply politics.
Another issue to be discussed in Moscow is the Caucasus Platform
of Stability and Cooperation posed by Turkish Prime-Minister
Erdogan. However, its implementation looks rather vague because of
Iran’s non-participation in it. Moreover, there are rumours that Iran
might put forth a similar proposal too.
The economic, or to be more precise, the energy constituent is
most significant in Moscow meetings. As Gul states, energy carriers
purchase accounts for the considerable part of commodity circulation of
Turkey and Russia: 2/3 of natural gas and 1/3 of oil Turkey imports
from Russia. Most likely, Moscow meetings will also dwell on the
project "Blue stream-2" that would allow southerly delivery of the
Russian gas through Turkey. First and foremost this means Turkey may
decline from the project Nabucco if the transit from Russia is more
profitable than, say from Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan. Remember that
the pipeline "Blue stream" was built in the shortest possible time
and functions successfully, contrary to the expectations of some
skeptics who believed it was impossible to transport gas through
the seabed of the Black Sea. It was especially thanks to the "Blue
stream" that Turkey suffered slightest losses during the "gas war"
between Russia and Ukraine. As for the delivery of gas from Russia to
Turkey, in 2009 it will probably amount to 25.5 billion cubic meters,
i.e. 1.7 billion cubic meters more than in 2008. Most likely RF will
also take part in the construction of Turkish atomic power plants,
which has been under discussion still since last year.
Turkish President’s visit to RF is somewhat directed against the
USA and Israel, especially after Erdogan’s ‘trick’ in Davos. The
new administration of the White House is too busy with the economic
crisis to listen to Turkey’s Â"threatsÂ" about cooling US-Turkish
relations. Roughly speaking, Barak Obama has neither time nor
the nerves to deal with it. He is trying to save the USA from
the crisis, withdraw part of his troops from Iraq and come to an
agreement with Moscow. Against this background Turkish statements
on the Â"undesirability and inadmissibilityÂ" of recognition of the
Armenian Genocide by the US Congress simply look naïve. It’s worth
mentioning that the RF State Duma recognized the Armenian Genocide
still in 1995 but Russian-Turkish relations did not suffer a bit,
similar to the French-Turkish relations. The only difference is that
Bush Administration was rather vulnerable and the Turkish Government
seized the opportunity.