TALK TO THE HAND
Strategy Page
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Feb 17 2009
February 17, 2009: Despite the ceasefire in Gaza, since January 18th,
Palestinians have fired, on average, two rockets or mortar shells
into Israel each day. The response has usually been bombing attacks
on weapons smuggling tunnels on the Egyptian border, as well as
halting goods entering or leaving Gaza. The tunnel attacks include
storage areas for weapons moved into Gaza. Hitting these usually
results in spectacular secondary explosions, as the smuggled weapons
detonate. Despite Hamas denials, Israel has identified many of the
fired rockets as those previously manufactured and used by Hamas.
Hamas was forced to return ten truckloads of UN food aid that it
had seized at gun point. The UN cut off all aid shipments until
Hamas returned the stolen food, which Hamas did after a few days,
explaining that they had simply stolen the wrong aid shipments and
were very sorry.
Fighting inside Gaza continues, as Hamas gunmen continue to kill, wound
and terrorize real or suspected opponents. Over a third of the Gaza
population is hostile to Hamas for one reason or another. Hamas, in
turn, considers these people responsible for the targeting information
the Israelis continue to get. The Hamas leadership is particularly
concerned about this, because Israeli missiles and smart bombs are
regularly used to kill Hamas leaders and key technical people. Hamas is
believed to have killed over a hundred suspected opponents inside Gaza
since late December. Many more have been injured or imprisoned. This
violence continues because Israel continues to find and kill (usually
with a guided missile) key Hamas personnel, especially those still
involved with firing rockets into Israel. Thus Hamas believes there
are still many Palestinians in Gaza who are providing targeting data.
The Israel-Hamas peace talks in Egypt are stalemated over
several issues. First, the Israelis want Sergeant Gilad Schalit
released. Schalit was kidnapped by Hamas gunmen on June, 2006. Now
Hamas is hinting that Schalit may be dead. This may just be a
negotiating tactic, as Hamas is still haggling with Israel over how
many jailed Hamas members would be released in return for Schalit
(Hamas wants a thousand, Israel offers much less). Israel also wants
the freed Palestinian terrorists to be exiled, which Hamas opposes. The
jailed Palestinian terrorists are experienced operators, and Hamas
wants them to replace the terrorists Israel has been killing with
missiles strikes. Israel also wants a halt to the rocket and mortar
attacks. Hamas says it cannot halt all of them, because there are
some splinter terrorist groups that it cannot control. Israel also
wants a halt to the use of smuggling tunnels to move more weapons
into Gaza. Hamas insists that it has the right to arm and defend
itself. Israel believes that Hamas is not serious about the peace
talks, and is only using them to prolong the temporary ceasefire. This
allows Hamas to continue smuggling weapons in and firing rockets
into Israel.
Israel held national elections, and more conservative and
anti-Palestinian candidates were elected. As usual, no party won enough
seats in the parliament (Knesset) to form a government, So there will
be a week or more of bargaining, as the two largest factions (centrist
Kadima and conservative Likud) try to make enough deals with smaller
parties to form a majority block that can form a new government. If
Kadima manages to remain in power, it won’t treat the Palestinians any
more gently than Likud proposes to do. Most Israelis have lost all
patience with the Palestinians. Hamas remains determined to destroy
Israel, and appears to have no intention of changing that doctrine.
Relations with Turkey continue to get worse. It began last month when
the Turkish prime minister accused the Israeli prime minister of war
crimes against the Palestinians. The Israeli prime minister refuted
the accusation and the Turkish prime minister stalked off the stage
(at the Davos economic summit). Then the head of the Israeli armed
forces pointed out that the Turks had treated Greeks in Cyprus, as well
as Kurds and Armenians in eastern Turkey badly, and continues to kill
Kurds. This further enraged the Turks, who are currently ruled by a
pro-Islamic government (which feels it has to join the "hate Israel"
crowd or lose street cred in Islamic conservative circles.)
February 7, 2009: After six weeks in hiding, senior Hamas officials
are appearing in public again, primarily as part of negotiating teams
that go to Egypt to meet with their Israeli counterparts.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
