MOSCOW TRYING TO CHANGE ANKARA’S PRIORITIES
by Igor Artemyev

RusData Dialine – Russian Press Digest
February 17, 2009 Tuesday

Turkish President Abdullah Gul arrived in Moscow on a four-day
visit. Although his agenda sounds optimistic, problems plague the two
countries’ relations. One of them is Turkey’s participation in the
EU-backed Nabucco pipeline project, which Russia strongly opposes;
another is Turkey’s attempts to become a key player in the Caucasus.

Turkey is one of the key links of the Nabucco project, a gas route
bypassing Russia lobbied by the West, which Russia expects to "kill"
Gazprom’s South Stream, a route to connect Russia and southern Europe
under the Black Sea by 2015.

Because of Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, Europe might eventually
prefer the longer route via Turkey’s offshore areas to the shorter
one (South Stream, along the coast of Russia, Ukraine, Romania and
Bulgaria). The fact that Gul was invited to Moscow shortly after
Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov (Serbia was talked into joining
South Stream earlier) could mean the Kremlin is trying to win Ankara
over.

But Russia is unlikely to succeed, because Turkey expects to obtain
the desired EU membership in exchange for Nabucco accession. And,
even without that, Ankara would benefit more from Nabucco than from
South Stream.

"South Stream will only cut Turkey’s profits, whereas Nabucco will pay
it high transit fees. Gul wouldn’t want to lose the profit, and South
Stream can be seen as a rival to Nabucco," said Mikhail Korchemkin,
director of the East European Gas Analysis consultancy.

Russia and Turkey also have unresolved political issues. Although
Gul, before traveling to Moscow, dubbed Russia somewhat clumsily an
important player in its region, Turkey is obviously playing its own
game in the Caucasus. While Russia is backing Armenia in the Nagorny
Karabakh conflict, Turkey prefers to side with Azerbaijan.

Alexei Malashenko from Moscow’s Carnegie Center suggested that
Gul’s visit is a sign of the two countries’ willingness to settle
the Caucasus issue. "The talks will be interesting. They will
tackle the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent
states, the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, and gas," Malashenko told
Gazeta.ru. However, the analyst said he expects no important results.