WILL THE MANIAC STRIKE AGAIN?

The Messenger
Feb 20 2009
Georgia

The results of the Geneva talks are encouraging at first glance. If
international law and order are observed the agreement reached in
Switzerland will provide the foundation for security guarantees around
the Russian occupied zones.

However the question arises: Will the maniac strike again? Certain
Russian analysts predict that Russia will launch a repeat attack
on Georgia as soon as the snow melts in the Caucasus roads and
passes – that means sometimes around May. Among these pessimists is
Pavel Felgengauer, who was the first to predict the previous Moscow
aggression and did so long before August, giving almost the exact
dates of the attack.

Why does Russia need to do this? The first reason is: to satisfy its
maniacal desire to control the South Caucasus. It is also obvious that
Russia wants to detract its population’s attention from Russia’s own
internal problems: everything will be alright if Georgia has caused
all the trouble and can thus be neutralized. But this therefore
brings us to the ultimate reason: Russia wants to destroy Georgia’s
statehood. Snatching two pieces of its territory did not do much to
satisfy Moscow’s imperialistic sentiments and appetite. Only swallowing
a whole country, a recognized sovereign state such as Georgia, will
be able to do that in the short term.

Felgengauer highlights Russia’s presence in Armenia in particular
to support his argument. During the August ceasefire Russia’s
strategically important bases in Armenia were detached from
Russia, as the land connection between the two countries is no
longer viable. Spare parts and arms cannot be supplied to the
bases through either Azerbaijan, Georgia or Turkey. The only
remaining land connection is through Iran, but this is via a very
long road. Air transport would be very costly and some items just
cannot be transported by air, therefore in two-three years the
equipment in these Russian bases will be obsolete and there will be
no opportunity to reequip them as the road connection is too long and
hazardous to negotiate. Therefore the bases will obviously lose their
function. "Russia will thus have defaulted on its obligation to take
care of its strategic ally and its ambition to control the entire
South Caucasus will be frustrated," thinks the Russian expert. As
is known, all the equipment from the old Georgian-located Russian
military bases had been transported to Armenia’s Russian bases by 2007.

The situation around the zones occupied by Russian is very tense
and at any moment could be aggravated. Serious confrontation could
flare up instantly. Russia is capable to provoking this at any moment
and then putting all the blame on Georgia, as it does concerning the
August war: it did everything to provoke Georgia into taking serious
military steps and then sprang its trap. Furthermore the compromised
attitude of the EU towards Russia most probably gives the impression
to Moscow that Europe silently acknowledges Russia’s claims that it
has the right to use force in the Caucasus. Of course it has taken the
only position it can in practical terms, but Russia’s unpredictable
and irresponsible moves mean that Europe cannot make the rules and
expect Russia to obey them.

How can Georgia prevent these developments? First of all it
should modernize and train its military forces so they can protect
their own country. US military commanders have already admitted
that Georgian soldiers were trained for international peacekeeping
missions, not domestic tasks, and now they will be trained to protect
their country. The Pentagon is already devising relevant training
programmes. The second step should be to make diplomatic efforts
outside the country to attract the EU’s attention to what is going
on in the Russian-occupied territories.

There is one more possible scenario however: this time Moscow might
direct its aggression not against Georgia but Ukraine. The situation in
Crimea is becoming hot, as the Kremlin is taking similar measures there
to the ones it took in Georgia. It is distributing Russian passports
and granting Russian citizenships to the local population. Furthermore
the international community, which has seen all this before, remains
silent as it did in Georgia, only believing there is a problem when
people start to die.

Conflict in Ukraine will not be much relief for Georgia, considering
the good relationship between Georgia and Ukraine. However it will
split Russia’s attention, thus making it a potentially softer aggressor
for a while. Georgia should not have to wait for Russia to attack
another country to obtain relief from its own troubles however.