Belarus tests EU’s unity of purpose
By Tony Barber in Minsk
FT
February 22 2009 18:38
The European Union faces a critical test of its common foreign policy
in coming weeks when it must decide whether to continue its cautious
efforts at converting Belarus, the tightly controlled former Soviet
state bordering Russia, from pariah state to good neighbour.
By mid-April, the 27-nation bloc must either prolong or let lapse a
six-month suspension of a travel ban on Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s
president, and other officials that was agreed last October in response
to the government’s release of its last three political prisoners.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Opinion: The EU must help its new states – Feb-19Banks inject $2bn into
Kiev offshoots – Feb-19Roma bear brunt of Hungary’s downturn –
Feb-19Editorial: Protect European unity – Feb-18Scare warns of
potential quake ahead – Feb-18Lex: Eastern Europe – Jan-28The EU must
also decide whether to include Belarus as a full member of its `eastern
partnership’ initiative, a project, due for formal launch in May, that
is aimed at building closer relations with six former Soviet republics
wedged between the EU and Russia.
At a meeting of EU foreign ministers on Monday in Brussels, the main
questions will be how to interpret Mr Lukashenko’s recent gestures in
the direction of political liberalisation, and what to do if he bows to
Russian20pressure and offends the EU by recognising the independence of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two pro-Russian breakaway provinces of
Georgia.
All EU countries realise that if Belarus is left in the cold, it is at
risk of falling under even stronger Russian influence than now,
compromising its independence. But several countries, especially the
Netherlands, are not convinced Belarus’s reforms have gone far enough.
Belarus’s precarious condition came through clearly last week to three
members of the European parliament who visited Minsk for talks with
government officials and a clutch of activists from the small and
much-harassed political opposition.
The MEPs ` Lithuania’s Laima Andrikiene, Poland’s Jacek Protasiewicz
and the UK’s Christopher Beazley ` said one point appeared
indisputable: the financial crisis was straining Belarus’s economy to
the limit.
Without support from the International Monetary Fund, the EU and
Russia, from which Belarus receives almost all its energy supplies at
subsidised prices, the nation would drown in unrepayable debt.
The financial crisis, the MEPs concluded, is driving the modest
relaxation of political controls in Belarus, which in 2005 was dubbed
`Europe’s last dictatorship’ by Condoleezza Rice, then US secretary of
state.
Among recent steps are a decision to let two opposition newspapers be
sold through the state-run distribution network, and the establishment
of public `consultative councils’ for the discussion of human rights
and media freedom.
Government officials told the MEPs that the authorities were committed
to permitting a freer public life but would pursue the new course at
their own pace. Any EU attempt to set conditions for warmer EU-Belarus
relations would be rejected, they warned.
`Belarus is not a dictatorship or an autocracy. It has had a period of
strong government, needed to consolidate independence,’ one official
said, referring to Mr Lukashenko’s uninterrupted rule since 1994.
He stressed that Belarus did not regard itself as politically balanced
midway between the EU and Russia but viewed Moscow as an ally. That was
highlighted this month when Mr Lukashenko signed an accord on an
integrated air defence system with Russia.
Opposition leaders told the MEPs that political controls had eased
since October but had tightened again in recent weeks. Several young
activists have been punished by being drafted into the armed forces,
and police violently dispersed a peaceful opposition rally in Minsk on
St Valentine’s day.
One opposition leader said the new consultative councils were mere
konfetka ` empty of substance.
`The democratic community here saw some recent government steps as
positive, but the problem is they are all reversible in five minutes,’
he said. `We know Lukashenko is playing a difficult and complex game,
but his essence hasn’t changed.’
EU to launch Eastern Partnership
European Union leaders are planning to meet in Prague on May 7 to
launch the `Eastern Partnership’. This is an initiative designed to
draw six post-Soviet states ` Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia,
Moldova and Ukraine ` closer to the EU, without holding out an explicit
promise of membership.
All six states covered by the Eastern Partnership exist in the shadow
of Russia, some more comfortably than others. The EU’s offer of free
trade deals, visa facilitation arrangements and seminars to improve
understanding of EU laws does not match the military, political and
economic influence that Russia can wield in the region.