Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Feb 22 2009

US’S Afghanistan strategy review on agenda of Turkish- US relations

Since US President Barack Obama was elected in November, analysts have
cautioned, in reference to Ankara’s expectations of the Obama
administration, that the new White House team would also have certain
expectations from its transatlantic ally.

On Monday a White House statement announced that Obama had spoken to
both President Abdullah Gül and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
ErdoÄ?an. The statement particularly noted that in both calls
the leaders discussed "the US review on Afghanistan and Pakistan
policy," as well as "US support for the growing Turkish-Iraqi
relationship" and "the importance of cooperation in Middle East peace
efforts."

In Ankara, during a press conference on Wednesday, ErdoÄ?an told
reporters that he and Obama also discussed Armenian genocide
allegations. While neither ErdoÄ?an nor Gül mentioned the
Afghanistan issue in their statements regarding their talks with
Obama, the US side didn’t mention the Armenian genocide issue in its
own statement concerning the talks. The wording of both sides’
statements has been read as declarations of priority for each side in
their bilateral relations.

Some observers in Ankara claim that the probability of a change in
Turkey’s strong determination not to send combat troops to Afghanistan
could come on the agenda, given the fact that April 24, the day the
White House traditionally issues a statement marking `Armenian
Remembrance Day,’ is approaching and the Armenian diaspora has already
started pressuring American politicians to bring a `genocide
resolution’ to the floor of the US Congress.

This week Obama authorized 17,000 more US troops for Afghanistan,
taking the US contingent to around 55,000, in addition to the 30,000
from 40 other mostly NATO countries already operating in Afghanistan.

Also this week, during a NATO defense ministers’ meeting in Krakow,
the US called on its NATO allies to provide more forces to provide
security for Afghanistan’s presidential election in August, but
received only a limited response. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates
said he would not seek a specific number of additional NATO troops
from the Krakow meeting but that Washington would like to see a
short-term deployment of troops to Afghanistan from the alliance’s
rapid response force, the NRF, which has never been utilized.

`The message is that it is a new administration and [it] is prepared
to make additional commitments to Afghanistan. But there clearly will
be expectations that the allies must do more, as well,’ Gates told
reporters.

Gates also said Washington hoped NATO countries where the Afghan
mission is politically unpopular could make significant new
contributions to civilian development. He said the Obama
administration would seek allies’ input for its Afghan strategy
review, which is expected to stress the need for better police
training, governance and development — aims on which the allies have
been flagging for years.

Contacts on Kabul Regional Command

As of Friday afternoon, there was no fresh official statement
concerning the US demand voiced at the NATO meeting from Turkish
leaders in Ankara or Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül, who
participated in the Krakow meeting, which was scheduled to close later
on Friday.

When asked about the issue, Turkish diplomatic sources referred
Sunday’s Zaman to earlier statements by Foreign Minister Ali Babacan,
who stressed that focusing on the use of military means to resolve the
Afghanistan problem has been a mistake.

The same diplomatic sources stressed that Turkey has so far provided
millions of dollars in funding for schools and clinics in Afghanistan
and that it is continuing these efforts. `Ankara has always stated
that it is ready for cooperation in the civilian field,’ they said
when reminded of Gates’ recent remarks on civilian development in
Afghanistan.

Turkey is currently continuing its support of the NATO-led
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) with more than 800
non-combat troops in Afghanistan. The Turkish troops were in charge of
the rotating leadership of the Kabul Regional Command between April
and December of 2007. The Kabul Regional Command was created in the
summer of 2006 under the joint leadership of Turkey, France and Italy
as part of ISAF in Afghanistan.

`If an agreement is reached, our country may assume the leadership of
the Kabul Regional Command once again. This mission doesn’t impose any
different authority or responsibility than the missions assumed by
Turkey in Afghanistan in the past. Contacts on this issue are under
way,’ a senior Turkish diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity,
told Sunday’s Zaman.

Mathematics and diplomacy

ErdoÄ?an has already said that he will meet with Obama at the
next G-20 meeting, which will take place in London on April 2. A NATO
summit of heads of state and government will be held in Germany and
France right after the G-20 meeting, on April 3-4, and is likely to
offer an opportunity for a bilateral meeting between Obama and Turkish
leaders.

A US policy review of the region is to be completed in late March —
thus, before the NATO summit — with feedback from Obama’s special
envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, who visited
Afghanistan, Pakistan and India in his first trip to the region this
month.

Both the Armenian genocide resolution and the US’s new strategy on
Afghanistan are highly likely to top the agenda of these talks between
Turkish and US leaders.

`Attributing such a mathematical relationship to any issue is, first
of all, against the nature of foreign policy,’ another senior Turkish
diplomat told Sunday’s Zaman when reminded of certain comments
associating the resolution and the issue of Afghanistan troops.

`There is no correlation between those two issues. Plus, there is
quite a considerable amount of time for the formation of a new
approach toward Afghanistan within NATO,’ the same diplomat said. `We
have constantly told the United States that there is a difference for
us between the use of the word genocide by Obama during his address on
April 24 and the approval of a resolution for official recognition of
the 1915 incidents as genocide. On the other hand, we have certain
responsibilities as a member of NATO, and we will not shy away from
fulfilling these responsibilities. One should also note that sending
combat troops to Afghanistan is not the only way of helping the Afghan
people. Our non-combat troops there have carried out very successful
projects, and these cannot be underestimated,’ he said.

`And even if Turkey eventually decides to send more troops to
Afghanistan or intensify its current strong support for Afghanistan
via various non-military means, if there is a certain decision that is
made or will be made by the Obama administration, then Turkey’s move
will not change this decision. And in the other scenario — if Turkey
eventually decides to continue with its current support to Afghanistan
without sending more troops — this will also not change what is on
the Obama administration’s mind,’ he added

The diplomat concluded, `I believe that Obama will make his final
decision by taking the strategic alliance between the two countries
into consideration.’

Although he rejected attempts to draw `mathematical connections’
between these issues, there seems to be an equation with more than one
unknown on the place of Afghanistan in the future of relations between
the US and Turkey.

22 February 2009, Sunday
EMÄ°NE KART ANKARA