ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE USA AND CHINA
Gagik Ter-Harutyunyan
"Noravank" Foundation
23 February 2009
The relations between the US and China are one of the main problems
in multi-polar world. Their orientation and content, obviously,
will essentially influence global policy, military and political and
economic developments. Meanwhile, there are quite contrary analytical
approaches connected with the character of those relations.
Confrontation of civilizations. Some analysts (mainly economists)
tend to the opinion that the US and the PRC coalesced to such an
extent in the sphere of economy and finances (today 10% of the import
in the US belongs to China) that in the future they will integrate
economically and make a whole.
The celebrated American economist Niall Ferguson appropriately called
it "Chimerica" (from China-America word combination). The analysts
with the geopolitical way of thinking are of the other opinion. They
are convinced that the competition between the US and the PRC will
turn into utmost rivalry even with military clash.
Let us mention in this connection that in globalizing world
coincidence of the economic interests of the big geopolitical actors,
the community of those interests to one extent or another, are almost
inevitable. This is particularly evidenced by the joint efforts of
the leading countries to recover from the current crisis. At the same
time without down-grading20the material part there are also even more
important and foreground factors.
In western deep investigations of China the singularity of value system
and ideological flexibility are especially underlined and this, in the
accordance with the analysts, is the main recipe for their national
security. There is an impression that the competition between the US
and the PRC in spiritual (ideological) and intellectual spheres is
most important.
It is remarkable that the analysts of some research centers are more
concerned about the fact that in 2040 the exponents of the scientific
and technological development of the US and China will level, than
with the expansion of its economy. In accordance with the approaches
of Samuel Huntington, who has passed away recently, the contradictions
between these two superstates are the classical example of civilization
confrontation. But it is known that the ideological competition is
one of the most important preconditions for military clash.
Military clash scenarios. In the aforementioned context it is
interesting to refer to one of the scenarios named "China acts",
which is included in the research projects "Asia – 2025" and "Joint
vision – 2020" worked out by "RAND Corporation" and other American
"think tanks". In accordance with this scenario in 2015 in South
Korea and Japan the growth of nationalism can be seen, the process of
the reunification of two Koreas will start. Following a protest of
the population and some terrorist acts against Americans, the US is
forced to dismantle its military bases from this country. China, in
its turn, activates its naval forces and this causes a local military
clash between Chinese and American warships. The US, weakened from
political point of view, retreats. In the circumstances concerned
India and Japan rethink their political conceptions. They "move away"
from the United States even more and from strategic point of view
they orientate in the direction of China. Thus China and its "junior"
partners, India and Japan, set their political and military supremacy
over huge South Asian and Asian and Pacific regions, forcing out the US
from there. It is characteristic that the same trends were expressed
by the results of the scenario game, which was held in Singapore
(with the participation of the Japanese analysts).
According to those results in case of the retreat of the US the so
called "Asian NATO" will form, and China, Japan and Unified Korea
will constitute its backbone.
>From the point of view of possible military actions the situation
round Taiwan is also topical (may be even foremost). In this
context the computer war game "Khan Quang" which was arranged by
the military department of that country ("the Republic of China")
in 2006, during whic h the attack of the PRC against the island was
modeled. According to that war game the armed forces of China managed
to disrupt the communications support of the Taiwanese army and to
land troops unexpectedly in the North of the island. On the forth day
of military actions the attacking side swiftly occupies the capital
Taipei and declares its victory.
We can notice the following on account of this scenario: there
is, of course, no doubt that the PRC can occupy Taiwan in several
days. But this has not happened till now mainly because of the American
guarantees given to the island and, which is most important, because
of the US warships patrolling the Taiwan gulf. Meanwhile during their
war game Taiwanese militaries made up their minds to the thought
that the US is not ready to make any serious military steps for
Taiwan and psychologically it has already ceded the island to the
continental China.
"Cold war". The work-out of military and political scenarios and war
games necessarily supposes the most radical variants. This allows to
introduce the whole spectrum of all the possible developments and to
form integral idea of the problem under study. Of course, one cannot
exclude the military developments in the relations between China
and the US. But the direct military clash between two superstates in
the nuclear age can in fact bring to the "end of the history". Both
parties are aw are of that factor and that is why the possibility of
"hot" war between them is almost excluded.
The cold war is another matter. Here all means are used but for
nuclear ones. It is remarkable that back in 1992 Deng Xiaoping made
a public statement that the "cold war" between China and the US had
already broken out. We think that "wise Deng" not so much stated
the reality because at that time China was far from being one of the
power poles in the world as emphasized the fact that after the fall of
"the Soviets", his country would become the main competitor of the US.
Today China has really obtained the status of the second center
of power and adhere its traditional strategy combining available
resources, political realities and objectives, trying to achieve
all these with the help of "soft power". E.g. the issue of Taiwan is
not far from being solved by political settlement. The oppositional
candidate Ma Ying-jeou got the landslide victory on the presidential
elections in 2008. He is an adherent of the peaceful integration
of two countries, ancestry of continental China and in accordance
with the special services experts he is "a man of Beijing". It is
important that during that presidential election some elements of
"colour revolution" could be observed. That means that China has
acquired that western "technology" and applies it against its rivals.