ANALYST WARNS OF RUSSIA’S INCURSION IN GARABAGH
AzerNews Weekly
Feb 25 2009
Azerbaijan
A Russian analyst has warned that a Moscow-dominated military bloc`s
forces would become involved in the Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict
if Azerbaijan moves to free its territories that have been under
Armenian occupation since the early 1990s.
"If Azerbaijan launches military action in Upper Garabagh, the
prompt-response forces of the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) [the military arm of the CIS] will be engaged in this conflict.
The point is that quite a few citizens of Armenia, Russia`s ally,
live there and if it [Armenia] asks us for assistance, we will simply
have to render it under the CSTO`s bylaws," Mikhail Aleksandrov, head
of the department on the Caucasus at the Institute of CIS Countries,
told Azerbaijan`s news website 1news.az.
Asked what Moscow`s reaction would be if Japan, just like Armenia,
asked for NATO assistance to take the Kuril Islands back from Russia,
Aleksandrov said the two problems could not be compared as "the
Japanese and the Russians are not facing inter-ethnic hostility",
as opposed to the Azeris and Armenians.
"Our president visits Tokyo, while their premier comes to Moscow. We
have no hostility between our states, and we do not threaten each
other with war the way Azerbaijan and Armenia do.
"Russia wishes for peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and
is calling on Yerevan to return the seven occupied districts to
you [Azerbaijan], while Baku, in exchange, should put forth the
political will and recognize the right of Upper Garabagh residents to
self-determination. Let`s look at everything realistically, without
emotions: Upper Garabagh Armenians don`t want to live alongside you,
but you are seeking to annex them forcefully.
Don`t you feel sorry for those people, is this humane? After all,
we live in the 21st century, and solving all problems with the use
of force is unacceptable. Here, one of the Caucasus statesmen –
Mikheil Saakashvili [Georgian President] had decided to annex South
Ossetia and Abkhazia [Georgia`s rebel regions] by force, and what
did he achieve by doing this? He has lost these territories and only
caused the hate of these nations toward himself. I doubt that Baku
will want to step on this path."
Asked what the results would be if Azerbaijan seeks NATO involvement
in settling the Garabagh conflict due to Moscow`s unwillingness to
support its cause, the analyst said "in that case, Azerbaijan would
not even see the return of those seven occupied districts."
"Why should we help you return those regions if you are trying to
become a member of an organization that is hostile to us? In this case,
Russia will send its troops into Upper Garabagh and place it under its
protection. But if Baku observes the rules of the game and refrains
from `shaking the boat` in the Caucasus, Moscow could even offer it
the Marneuli district of Georgia in exchange for Upper Garabagh in
the future."
In reply to the statement that Azerbaijan does not covet others`
land and merely demands the return of its own, Aleksandrov said:
"Baku should come to terms with reality. Unfortunately, Upper Garabagh
has drifted away from you too far. It is necessary to think based on
realities instead of approaching the processes emotionally."
It is astonishing that the statement comes from a representative of
a country that was exterminating the Chechens, who never wanted and
still do not want to live alongside the Russians.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress