VIGEN HAKOBYAN: PAT IN THE UKRAINE- CIVIL WAR OF INSTITUTIONS AHEAD

Regnum

F eb 23 2009
Russia

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko revoked from Verkhovna
Rada the proposal on appointment Valentin Nalivaychenko as a
chairman of Security Service of Ukraine. Ostensible purpose was the
"redundant politicization" of this issue. Meantime, it is obvious,
that the personality of Security Service leader can not be deprived
of political components. Especially in the Ukraine and especially
during the pre-election time.

The main intrigue of current situation is the extension of influence
on Ukrainian government institutes. "Politicum" is maneuvering as
it is very much aware the outcome of the presidential elections will
depend on who will be able to build the most influential units of the
"control system". That is the very SBU, the Office of the Prosecutor,
the Central Executive Committee, the Judicial system, the Interior
Ministry and at last the Army. Electoral landscape itself ceased
to be of fundamental importance for presidential candidates. People
suffered disappointments many times and do not believe anybody.

Triangle Yushchenko-Timoshenko-Yanukovych weakened all three sides
of the triangle due to cut-throat competition of recent five years
and could not manage to come to the crunch. Strengthening of one of
the poles immediately led to consolidation efforts of two others. The
activity of one side leads to counteraction of two others. This axiom
allowed this trinity to remain atop of the triangle, but exhausted
them to the limit. Any integration or association of sides would
result the head -on crash with the third participant. The value of
the matter was too high that is why sides preferred to be included
in ad hoc collusions, causing damage to their electoral reputation,
ideological priorities and political image. As a result, today there
is not an "orange" pro-western camp in Ukraine, as well as there is
not "white-blue" pro-Russian front. In fact it is a political pat.

Lack of possibilities to exercise the political activity causes
an extra nervosity to the sides. Relations between Yushchenko and
Timoshenko are already far away from political and they look like
a kitchen broil.On the other hand, Yanukovych, who had destroyed
its political basis to keep the balance into a triangle, is unable
today to present "peoples" ultimatum, although he is permanently
threatening. Yanukovych is verging towards destruction of its
political camp -the Regions Party. It would seem, there is wonderful
opportunity for fourth party to appear, in other words for new
political figure. However, this possibility is excluded in nowadays
Ukraine due to objective reasons. A new independent pole will be
extirpated by consolidated actions of the indicated trinity. Only
clones are acceptable for this triangle, which were developed for
its feeding, such as Lutsenko, Yatsenyuk, Konovalyuk, Volga, Baloga’s
"United center" and others.

Pat at the highest level resulted complete disorganization of
masses. The electoral base of potential participants of presidency is
washed out. Yushchenko is deprived of such electoral base at all. By
the start of presidential campaign Tomoshenko will face the lack of
10% of her rating due to socio-economic collapse. Today Yanukovych’s
perspectives are more depending not on the level of populations’
credibility, but on the outcome of influence redistribution in the
Regions Party.

An impact on state administration bodies and institutes becomes a key
determinant. The outcome of confrontation between institutions will
depend not so much on how successful political parties would overmaster
them, but on the fact how effective these politicians would be able
to run their decisions and actions in critical moment. Even more,
this outcome will depend on how independent would act numerous state
institutions, remaining without political control under the conditions
of pat.

Central Executive Committee will be a spearhead. Here the position is
held by the president Yushchenko, at the level of committee’s head
Vladimir Shapovala. However the committee’s decisions on the whole
will depend on operative contractual possibilities of sides. Julia
Timoshenko, who had extended her influence over Interior Ministry
(Yuri Lutsenko) and judicial system (Vasiliy Onopenko, the chairman
of the Ukrainian Supreme Court, is considered as one of devoted the
prime minister), can get an affront from SBU and the Office of the
Prosecutor. The last two structures are divided between the president
and representatives of the Regions Party. Constitutional Court Chairman
Andrey Strizhak is from Trascarpathia and, according to observers he
is close to Victor Baloga, the Head of the Secretary of the President
of Ukraine. However his influence could be neutralized by efforts of
lobbyists of Timoshenko, close to Medvedchuk’s command.

The described competition between the tops of political triangle
caused the discredit of parties of the second echelon, in particular,
left-wing parties such as Communist and Socialist parties of
Ukraine. Communists and socialists picked up from one another the
initiative in lobbying the interests of one or another clan, being not
unable to compete with powerful oligarchic pyramids, ranged behind each
participant of triangle. Communists have managed to draw dividends by
maneuvering between Timoshenko and Yanukovych. Today they are deprived
of this possibility, because the weaker these two poles became, the
more open support they demanded from the satellites. This days Petr
Simonenko’s party is closely bound to the camp of Timoshenko. Elections
of 2010 will become the last fight for communists, after which
they will face complete exposure and deactualisation. Socialists
fell victim to clear choice in behalf of money and today are not a
real political force. The pole of Mayor of Kiev Leonid Chernovecky
is rising against the populist front, but however as it was said
earlier his nomination to the presidential post, only would lead to
consolidated rejection of main competitors. He will have to support
one of them. From this point of view, Cherepovecky’s support could
be an important contribution to every participant of presidency.

To conclude, Ukrainian elections of 2010 years will become civil
war of governmental institutions. It will be the main test for the
Ukrainian statehood in the course of increasing economic crisis. The
resignation of Valery Khoroshkovsky, the head of State Customs Service,
has clearly revealed a deep political interference into personnel
management affairs in the Ukraine. Timoshenko’s government sacked
Chief Customs Officer straight upon his refusal to release gas from
UGS (underground gas storages), formerly owned by RosUkrEnergo, but
recently assigned to Naftogaz. The final distribution of institutions
on political priorities did not take place yet. Main fight is ahead,
where all possible methods will be used, up to forcible takeover of
important posts, which we have already observed on the example of some
financial departments as National Property Fund, National Bank and etc.

How will Ukrainian statehood overcome this war of institutions and
whether it will remain sovereign statehood is rather theoretical
question. Irresponsibility of Ukrainian politicians has already
almost destroyed their neutral state sense and finally took away all
restrictions towards transformation of institutions and government
authorities into anarchistic-feudal duplications of Zaporozhian Sich
(camp of Cossacks). Maybe, this is the main tradition of the Ukrainian
statehood.