ARMENIAN OPPOSITION BACKS AWAY FROM FURTHER CONFRONTATION WITH GOVERNMENT
Emil Danielyan

Jamestown Foundation
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March 4 2009

Armenian protesters in Yerevan following the controversial 2008
presidential election (Photo: NYTimes) Armenia has marked the first
anniversary of its worst political violence ever amid signs of easing
tension between its leadership and the main opposition forces. The
top opposition leader, former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, has
made it clear that he will no longer seek to topple the government
with the kind of street protests that nearly catapulted him back to
power following the disputed presidential election of February 2008.

The protests ended on March 1, 2008, in vicious clashes between
security forces and opposition protesters who barricaded themselves in
central Yerevan. Ten people were killed and more than 200 injured in
what the Armenian authorities call an attempt to "usurp state power
by force" but what the opposition regards as a bloody suppression of
a popular revolt against the alleged falsification of election results.

Thousands of opposition supporters rallied in the Armenian capital
on the first anniversary of the unrest. It was the first opposition
demonstration since a moratorium on antigovernment protests declared by
Ter-Petrosian last October. At the time, Ter-Petrosian cited the need
not to weaken President Serzh Sarkisian in the ongoing peace talks
with Azerbaijan, which he said would soon result in the resolution
of the Karabakh conflict.

The charismatic opposition leader made no mention of Karabakh as he
addressed more than 10,000 people who gathered in downtown Yerevan
on March 1. Many of them hoped that the rally would mark the start
of renewed "decisive actions" promised by Ter-Petrosian’s Armenian
National Congress (HAK) alliance in the summer and early fall of
2008. Ter-Petrosian stated, however, that he would not seek to stage an
antigovernment "revolution" but made a case for a "prolonged struggle"
against the ruling regime "through solely constitutional means." "The
old-fashioned ideas of revolution or uprising must finally be driven
out of our country’s political agenda," he said. "As long as that
hasn’t happened, Armenia can have no chance of becoming a rule-of-law
and democratic state. History knows virtually no revolutions that
have engendered democracy and welfare" (witnessed by Jamestown).

Ter-Petrosian went on to denounce unnamed opposition elements
advocating radical actions, saying that some of them "usually flee
the scene at decisive moments" while others might be government
"provocateurs." He also claimed that the Armenian authorities "will
destroy themselves" in a matter of months because of the growing
fallout from the global economic recession, which he said would thrust
Armenia into a "humanitarian crisis." "I am deeply convinced that the
country is simply descending into an abyss," he stated, predicting
a plethora of catastrophic economic consequences. "The calmer we
stay, the more we save our nerves, the quicker [the authorities]
will collapse," added Ter-Petrosian.

The 45-minute speech clearly failed to live up to the expectations
of many diehard opposition supporters. Some of the ensuing opposition
press commentaries reflected their disappointment. The pro-opposition
daily Hraparak openly blasted Ter-Petrosian in a March 3 editorial,
saying that he gave the impression of a "weak, unconfident, and tired
person." "Rejecting a revolt or a revolution is a sign of weakness and
indecision, rather than a commitment to civilized methods of struggle,"
it said.

"In any case, the authorities have no reason to worry about the
opposition at the moment," wrote a commentator for another, more
neutral newspaper, 168 Zham. Indeed, a spokesman for Sarkisian’s
Republican Party of Armenia (HHK), Eduard Sharmazanov, reacted to
Ter-Petrosian’s speech saying that the opposition movement was now
"in decline." "I appreciate that the first president has at last
accepted the view, repeatedly expressed by the authorities, that a
revolt or a revolution is not the way to go for Armenia," Sharmazanov
said (Iravunk, March 3).

For his part, Razmik Zohrabian, an HHK deputy chairman, said that
Ter-Petrosian had increased the chances for the release of more than
50 oppositionists who were arrested in the wake of the 2008 election
and remain in prison. Zohrabian said that Sarkisian could grant them
amnesty "in the near future" (RFE/RL Armenia Report, March 2). The
release of all "political prisoners" remains the Armenian opposition’s
main precondition for engaging in a dialogue with the authorities. The
latter implicitly pledged to free at least some of these prisoners as
they managed to avoid embarrassing sanctions by the Council of Europe
Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) in January. The Strasbourg-based body
is due to reexamine the issue at its next session in late April.

Incidentally, the Ter-Petrosian-led opposition scheduled
its next rally for May 1. The announced change in its tactic
should give the authorities a further incentive to comply with
PACE resolutions demanding the liberation of all members of the
opposition arrested on "seemingly artificial or politically motivated
charges." Ter-Petrosian’s March 1 speech was also an indication that
his HAK alliance is gearing up for the May 31 first-ever elections
of a municipal assembly, which will choose a new mayor of Yerevan
(Yerevan mayors until now have been appointed by the president of
the republic). A strong showing in the polls would give the HAK some
stake in the country’s existing political order and push it further
away from street politics. Conversely, blatant vote rigging could
reignite the year-long standoff between the authorities and the
opposition that seems to be subsiding now.