TURKISH-ARMENIAN ISSUE: NOT THIS TIME

Today’s Zaman
March 6 2009
Turkey

With the month of April approaching, Armenian pressure on the US
Congress is increasing. Last year, the Armenian lobby was able to
pass a resolution (from the House Committee on Foreign Affairs)
labeling the Armenian deaths in 1915 as genocide. However, contrary
to her previous statements House Speaker Nancy Pelosi did not bring
the resolution to a full vote in the House.

Mostly it was interpreted as Turkey’s important role in the Middle
East, especially in the Iraq war, having stopped Speaker Pelosi
from bringing the resolution to the floor. In 2007, she received a
joint letter signed by all of the eight living former secretaries of
state, warning her that the resolution would endanger the US security
interests in the region.

However, this year the Armenian lobby is more hopeful than ever of
passing the resolution. There are several reasons for this hope:

a) Democrats hold the majority both in the House and the Senate,
as well as the presidency.

b) The Iraq war is ending, and therefore Turkey is losing its
importance.

c) The Jewish lobby is no longer supportive of Turkey.

The following section of the article analyzes these issues from both
the Armenian and Turkish perspectives.

Democrats in power (Armenian): Democrats both in the House and
the Senate have been supporters of the resolution. Speaker Pelosi,
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama supported
the resolution in the past and co-sponsored it in 2007. And now,
Democrats hold the House, the Senate and the presidency; all together,
it becomes more likely that the resolution will be passed.

Turkey is losing its importance (Armenian): Both in his candidacy and
presidency, President Obama has stated that he would give priority
to Afghanistan. Last week, he announced his withdrawal plans, ending
the US combat operations in Iraq in 18 months, in 2010. Therefore,
Turkey won’t be as important as it used to be.

Jewish lobby (Armenian): Tension at the Davos World Economic
Forum between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Israeli President Shimon Peres over Palestine created a negative
climate between Turkey and Israel (and also the Jewish lobby in the
US). After the incident, the American Jewish Congress and four other
American Jewish organizations sent a letter to Prime Minister Erdogan
expressing their concerns over Turkish policies. David A. Harris,
the executive director of the American Jewish Committee, criticized
and warned Erdogan.

The following week, Israeli Maj. Gen. Avi Mizrahi, commander of the
Israeli army headquarters, criticized Prime Minister Erdogan’s comments
at the Davos meeting and stated that Erdogan should "look at himself"
before criticizing others — referring to the Armenian issue. He also
said that Turkey should be removed from the UN. The Turkish Foreign
Ministry delivered a diplomatic note to Israel regarding Gen. Mizrahi’s
comments, asking for an explanation. In addition to that, the Turkish
chief of general staff warned Israel that such statements could harm
their relations. Even though Gen. Mizrahi’s comment was disowned by
the Israeli government and the military, it fueled existing tension
between two countries.

Due to the recent tensions between Israel and Turkey, it seems the
Jewish lobby will not be as supportive of Turkey as it used to be.

In light of these aforementioned issues, this year the Armenian lobby
is more hopeful than ever of passing a resolution that recognizes
the Armenian genocide in the US House of Representatives.

On the other hand, Turkey still has some important cards to play and
the issues have other sides, too.

Democrats in power (Turkish): This is not the first time that the
Democratic Party has held the power in US politics; at the beginning
of the Clinton administration, Democrats had the majority both in
the House and the Senate. The Armenian lobby endorsed President Bill
Clinton and was hopeful that the resolution would be passed. However,
it did not happen. Even the leading Armenian lobby organization in
the US, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), accused
President Clinton of betraying Armenia. In 2000, Speaker of the House
Dennis Hastert stopped the resolution from reaching the floor in the
House of Representatives. Hastert later explained that he was doing
so at the request of President Clinton.

Speaker of the House Pelosi also co-sponsored the resolution in 2007;
however, she did not bring it to the floor.

The current situation is not that much different than it was in the
Clinton administration, especially during the early days. Expecting
support from the Democrats is not groundless, but it may not be enough
to pass the resolution.

Turkey is losing its importance (Turkish): The other claim is that the
war in Iraq is ending and therefore Turkey is losing its importance
to the US. Even though Turkey is an important country for the war in
Iraq, its importance to the US goes well beyond the war. The Turkish
and American alliance started before the Iraq war and will continue
after it. As mentioned above, even during the Clinton administration
(when the Iraq war did not exist), President Clinton stopped the
resolution from going to the floor.

In 2003, at the beginning of the Iraq war, the Turkish Parliament
did not allow US troops to use its soil to launch a second, northern
front against Iraq. Still, the resolution did not pass during the
Bush administration.

Turkey is also an important country with regards to Afghanistan. Last
month, the Kyrgyz government closed the Pentagon’s Manas Air Base,
which was a vital link in the supply chain to NATO forces in nearby
Afghanistan, and now the US is looking for alternatives. Russia has
better relations than the US with the Central Asian countries. But,
Turkey stands as an important ally in relations to these Central Asian
countries. Turkey has strong cultural and economic relations with
the former Soviet Union countries, which are also called Turkic states.

Turkey has led NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
Command twice and the ISAF Regional Command in Kabul once. It has
the eighth-largest reinforcement with its 1,300 troops, and it also
commands 90 Azerbaijani troops. With its rising positive image,
"Muslim identity," and historical and cultural ties to region, Turkey
continues to hold a major importance to the US’s interests.

Jewish lobby (Turkish): It is true that Israeli and Turkish relations
have been shaken by recent incidents. However, Turkey still continues
to be the only Muslim country that has a friendly relationship with
the State of Israel. After the Davos incident both the Prime Minister
Erdogan and President Peres gave statements to ease the tension. The
Israeli army disassociated itself from the statement of its general
(for the first time in its history) in order not to damage the
relations.

If the Armenian resolution passes, it is most likely that Turkey will
blame the Jewish lobby and Israel more than the Armenian lobby. The
Jewish lobby may claim that it is neither against nor for the
resolution; the interpretation won’t be same by the Turkish public
and government.

Due to the fact that Rep. Adam B. Schiff, who is the leading sponsor of
the resolution, Rep. Howard Berman, chairman of the US House Committee
on Foreign Affairs, and Speaker Pelosi are Jewish descendents, it
will be difficult to convince Turks that the Jewish lobby and Israel
stayed neutral to the resolution. If it passes, it will be perceived
as a punishment for Turkey from the Jewish lobby and Israel. It will
damage the already shaky relations.

Contrary to Armenian expectations, Israel and the Jewish lobby will
act more carefully than ever not to further damage the relationship
with Turkey.

*Dogan Koc is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University
of Texas, Dallas. He teaches courses on Middle East politics and
Islam and can be reached at dkocemail@gmail.com