Turkey
The enduring popularity of Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Mar 5th 2009 | ANKARA AND VAN
>From The Economist print edition
But will popularity blunt the reforming zeal of Turkeys prime minister?
Illustration by Peter Schrank
AT A recent rally in the predominantly Kurdish city of Van, in
south-east Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in his element. Turkeys
prime minister rattled off his governments achievements, bellowing out
to a jubilant crowd, 22 primary schools, five health clinics, 82
kilometres of paved roads.
With only three weeks to go before countrywide municipal elections on
March 29th, Mr Erdogan has hit the campaign trail in a confident
mood. Most opinion polls suggest that his mildly Islamist Justice and
Development Party (AKP) will clobber its opponents yet again. The
secular opposition Republican Peoples Party (CHP) is so desperate that
it no longer talks much of the risk of sharia law or the dangers of
Kurdish separatism. Instead it has resorted to recruiting female
candidates who wear the Islamic headscarf and calling for the Kurdish
new year to be declared a national holiday.
None of this is likely to make much impression on voters, most of whom
will stick with the AKP. Nor will it affect Mr Erdogans policies. Ever
since he was handsomely re-elected in the 2007 general election, his
critics say that the prime minister has become increasingly
autocratic, drifting away from the reformist agenda that first brought
the AKP to single-party rule in 2002. It does not help that the
European Union is continuing to prevaricate in the long-drawn-out
talks about Turkeys membership application, sapping enthusiasm for
reform in Ankara.
As further evidence of autocratic tendencies, the critics point to Mr
Erdogans continuing quarrel with Aydin Dogan, the countrys biggest
media mogul, whose outlets have exposed corruption scandals in which
individuals close to the government have been implicated. Mr Dogan
believes this explains why he faces a $500m claim for allegedly unpaid
taxes, a charge he passionately denies. Turkey has become a republic
of fear, complains Sedat Ergin, managing editor of Milliyet, a leading
Dogan newspaper.
On the international front Mr Erdogan is raising eyebrows for more
than his (understandable) loss of enthusiasm for the EU. He has also
attracted unfavourable attention for his virulent attacks on Israel,
especially during its war in Gaza, and for his budding friendships
with Iran and Sudan.
Among ordinary Turks, however, Mr Erdogan remains the most popular and
charismatic leader since a visionary former prime minister and
president, Turgut Ozal. One old Kurdish woman in Van sums up the mood:
Tayyip is one of us, he treats us as equals. Mr Erdogans popularity
has even forced his enemies, notably the countrys hawkish generals,
who have often tried to topple his government, to back off.
Mr Erdogans touch was in evidence in Van as he and his vivacious wife,
Emine, handed out toys to ragged children. Elsewhere in Turkey, the
government has been giving away coal, school textbooks and, as the
elections draw near, even fridges and washing-machines to the
poor. Such profligacy has angered the IMF. A long-delayed standby
facility with the fund has yet to be signed because of differences
over public spending. But a defiant Mr Erdogan insists, in an
interview, that Turkeys economy is robust enough to get through its
current troubles without IMF help.
Like most countries, Turkey has been hit by the world financial
crisis. The Turkish lira is slipping against the dollar, GDP is
expected to shrink this year and unemployment is rising. Yet, partly
thanks to tough regulation, not a single Turkish bank has gone
under. The economy is wobbling but remains on its feet.
No wonder Mr Erdogan is so confident. Many worry that another big
electoral win may swell his head further. Yet for all his
pre-electoral posturing, there are signs that his pragmatic self may
come back. He seems to have grasped that he has an image problem. He
has hired a new, affable spokesman and is courting foreign journalists
for the first time. In an interview with this correspondent, he freely
bestowed smiles (and dried fruit) as he insisted he was no autocrat. I
can be impatient at times, was all he would admit.
The launch of Turkeys first official Kurdish-language television
channel in January and the governments calls for the establishment of
Kurdish literature departments at state universities have raised hopes
of more reforms. After years of mutual hostility, Turkey and the Iraqi
Kurds are at last talking. A deal with separatist guerrillas from the
Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), who have been fighting the Turkish army
since 1984 from bases in northern Iraq, is said to be on the
table. Turkeys generals are tentatively compliant.
All of this will make Mr Erdogans meeting this weekend with Hillary
Clinton, Americas secretary of state, especially significant. Mr
Erdogan will brief her on talks with another former Turkish foe,
Armenia. Once the local elections in Turkey and the April 24th
anniversary of the mass killings of Ottoman Armenians in 1915 are
past, it is expected that formal ties will be re-established between
the two countries and their long-closed border will be reopened. This
may also stave off attempts by Americas Congress to pass a resolution
calling the massacres a genocide.
An IMF deal is widely expected after the local elections as well,
though Mehmet Simsek, the economy minister, insists that the IMF must
drop some of its more orthodox demands. On progress towards joining
the EU, the next big test for Mr Erdogan will be whether he can budge
a bit more on the opening of Turkish ports and airports to Cyprus,
shaming Turkeys detractors within the EU (notably the French) into
stopping their efforts to undermine the membership talks.
The appointment of Egemen Bagis, a sharp young English-speaker, as
Turkeys first cabinet-rank EU negotiator suggests that Mr Erdogan may
make a fresh effort to put the EU talks back on track. But if he is
genuinely serious, he will have to take a second shot at rewriting
Turkeys constitution, crafted by the generals after a military coup in
1980. His previous attempt at this almost led the Constitutional Court
to ban the AKP on the ground that it was trying to impose sharia
law. That is because he started off in piecemeal fashion by trying to
ease bans on the Islamic headscarf in government offices and
universities. Mr Erdogan would do better this time if he worked with
the opposition to produce a constitution that met the wishes of all
Turks, not just pious ones.
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