The National, UAE
March 9 2009

Will Obama risk Turkey’s wrath?

Thomas Seibert, Foreign Correspondent
Last Updated: March 10. 2009 12:15AM UAE / March 9. 2009 8:15PM GMT

ISTANBUL // Although there are many issues that Turkey would like to
discuss with the new administration in Washington, Ankara’s
politicians and diplomats will be concentrating on one task in the
coming weeks: to prevent Barack Obama from using the word `genocide’
to describe the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Armenians almost
100 years ago.

Attention is focused on the traditional message of the US president on
April 24, the day commemorating the massacres against Armenians in
what was then the Ottoman Empire.

In recent years, presidents have avoided the term `genocide’ to not
offend Turkey, a strategic US ally. But Ankara has been concerned that
Mr Obama may change this, as the new president used the term during
his election campaign and promised to recognise the genocide.

In a statement in January last year when he was a US senator, Mr Obama
talked about his `firmly held conviction that the Armenian genocide is
not an allegation, a personal opinion, or a point of view, but rather
a widely documented fact supported by an overwhelming body of
historical evidence. The facts are undeniable.’

He added: `As president I will recognise the Armenian genocide.’

Turkey’s concerns formed part of the talks between high-ranking
Turkish officials and the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, in
Ankara last weekend.

Mrs Clinton’s visit was seen as an effort to put US-Turkish relations
on a new footing after a period marked by tensions over the US
invasion in Iraq. Judging by Turkish reactions, Mrs Clinton succeeded.

Turkey’s foreign minister, Ali Babacan, said relations between the two
countries had `entered a new era’.

But despite that positive assessment and a cautious rapprochement
between Turkey and Armenia that started last year, the prospect that
the United States may officially label the events that took place
during the First World War a genocide is still so explosive in Turkey
that Ankara warned of irreparable damage to Turkish-US relations,
should the term be used.

`I see a risk here,’ Mr Babacan told the NTV news channel last
weekend. `Just one word may seem easy for them. But ¦ they have to
understand the consequences, the reaction of our people,’ the minister
said. `We conveyed that message to Clinton as well.’

Armenians and much of the international community say that as many as
1.5 million Armenians were killed in a genocide orchestrated by
Ottoman authorities that started in 1915.

Turkey rejects that term, puts the number of victims much lower and
argues the death of the Armenians was the result of a resettlement
under wartime conditions. Several countries around the world have
passed resolutions recognising the genocide, but the United States has
not done so yet.

Turkish media speculated in recent weeks that the possibility of Mr
Obama’s recognising the genocide had risen after the latest spat
between Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Israeli
president, Shimon Peres, over Israel’s attacks in the Gaza Strip.

Other observers think that an announcement, made during Mrs Clinton’s
visit, that Mr Obama plans to travel to Turkey in early April has
taken much of the pressure off Ankara.

`To think of a visit to Turkey would not make sense for an American
president who is going to use the word `genocide’,’ Kadri Gursel wrote
in a column in Milliyet, a daily newspaper.

According to news reports, Mr Obama’s visit is expected around April
7, about two weeks before he is to make his first official statement
on the Armenian question as president.

Mr Obama may also be hesitant to fulfill his campaign pledge on the
Armenian issue because such a step could endanger efforts to make a
new start in relations between Turkey and Armenia.

A joint statement after talks between Mrs Clinton and Mr Babacan in
Ankara underlined `US support for the efforts of Turkey and Armenia to
normalize relations’.

Omer Taspinar, a Washington-based columnist for Sabah, a daily
newspaper, wrote on Monday that Mr Obama would tell Turkey and Armenia
to open a new chapter in their relations. `The time has come to sign
an historic agreement with Armenia.’

Turkey broke new ground in its relations with its neighbour when the
president, Abdullah Gul, visited Yerevan in September. There have been
several high-level contacts since then, and Armenia’s president, Serzh
Sarkisian, is expected in Turkey this year.

Some Turkish observers have predicted an opening of the border between
the two countries, which has been closed for more than 10 years, and
the establishment of diplomatic relations.

Wrapping up a visit to Washington a few days ago, a group of Turkish
lawmakers also expressed their expectation that Mr Obama would not use
the term and that Congress would not pass a resolution recognising the
genocide.

`I do not think that President Obama will use that despicable term,’
said Sukru Elekdag, a deputy and former Turkish diplomat, according to
press reports.

`Congress will look at what the president says.’

But another Turkish lawmaker, Nursuna Memecan, said Armenian groups
were lobbying for recognition of the genocide by Washington. `We
cannot rest peacefully,’ she said.

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