EurasiaNet, NY
March 12 2009

AZERBAIJAN, RUSSIA AGREE TO DISAGREE ON ARMS TRANSFER AND MORE
Shahin Abbasov 3/12/09

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s two-day official visit to
Baku ended on March 12 with all the traditional tributes to bilateral
partnership. But the visit provided little indication of how far
Russia has actually succeeded in assuaging Azerbaijani outrage at an
alleged Russian arms transfer to Armenia.

Lavrov’s trip came after more than a month of warm-up diplomacy by
Moscow following the eruption of the Armenian arms scandal in late
January. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russian
President Dmitri Medvedyev called Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
twice over the last several weeks, while Sergei Narishkin, chief of
staff of the Russian presidential administration, visited Baku on
February 26-27.

During a March 12 press conference with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov, Lavrov adhered to the Kremlin line, repeating
earlier assertions that the Azerbaijani media had "published
completely false information" about the transfer. Russia, he
continued, is carrying out military-technical cooperation in the South
Caucasus without violating its international obligations, and tries to
avoid further instability in the region.

But whatever overtures were made did not appear to cut through
official Azerbaijani reserve. Mammadyarov responded that Azerbaijan
will nevertheless continue its investigation into the issue — an
investigation that Lavrov termed unnecessary in a March 10 interview
with the Azerbaijani news agency Trend.

Some hint of a difference also was apparent in comments concerning
Azerbaijan’s unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with
Armenia. Mammadyarov told reporters that the Kremlin was in favor of a
speedy resolution, while Baku remains firm in its position that a
settlement can only come about if Karabakh remains territorially part
of Azerbaijan, while enjoying broad autonomy.

Lavrov did not directly react to Mammadyarov’s comment, stating that
Moscow is talking with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s closest foreign ally,
about the Karabakh dispute. "Many countries are interested in the
quickest resolution of the conflict and Turkey is one of them," he
said, adding that "[t]here are no parallel talks which would
contradict the existing format" overseen by the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe Minsk Group.

One Baku political columnist argues that Lavrov was treading
carefully. In his interview with Trend, Lavrov noted that "The
resolution [of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] should not turn the
region into a field of international political and military rivalry."

Opined Zerkalo’s Rauf Mirkadirov: "It means that Moscow wants to keep
Armenia as its major ally in the South Caucasus, but to keep
Azerbaijan at least neutral towards Russia and its policy."

The future of the Gabala radar station makes that neutrality even more
desirable. Lavrov noted that Moscow is interested in prolonging its
rental of the Gabala radar station after it expires in 2012. The
Russian foreign minister also noted that an earlier proposal for joint
use of the station with the US remains on the table. "When and if our
American and European partners will show interest in it, we are open
for discussion," Lavrov said. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight
archive].

Mammadyarov, in turn, indicated that Gabala was not under
discussion. He denied media reports about the upcoming arrival of a
Pentagon delegation to discuss the potential transfer of Gabala to the
US after 2012. "The issue of the station’s transfer to a third party
or the prolongation of an existing agreement is not on the agenda," he
said.

On the energy front — increasingly, a sensitive issue as Azerbaijan
strengthens its ties to non-Russian pipelines — the ministers said
that both sides are preparing for a potential summit in Baku on
finalizing the Caspian Sea’s legal status. Additional details about
energy ties were not provided.

In his Trend interview, Lavrov emphasized that "it is Azerbaijan’s
sovereign right to participate in international energy projects and we
respect this right." At the same time, in apparent reference to the
jockeying surrounding the US and European Union-supported Nabucco gas
pipeline, he underlined that Russia opposes the "excessive
politicization of this process."

In line with that theme, Elhan Shahinoglu, head of Baku’s Atlas
political research center, believes that Lavrov actively promoted the
outstanding Russian offer to purchase all of Azerbaijan’s export
gas. "It is difficult to say what Baku’s reaction to it was, however,
Ilham Aliyev will likely continue balancing between the West and
Russia on this issue," Shahinoglu said.

Prior to his arrival, Lavrov had identified the expansion of economic
ties with Azerbaijan as a priority for discussion, but no comments on
this topic were forthcoming during the March 12 news
conference. According to Lavrov, trade volume between the two
countries reached $2.4 billion in 2008, almost a 40 percent increase
from 2007. Russia remains the top exporter to Azerbaijan, and accounts
for nearly 19 percent of its imports.

Cultural ties proved smoother sailing. Lavrov and Mammadyarov attended
the inauguration of a Russian information and cultural center in Baku
that will run exhibitions, promote Russian businesses and run various
bilateral educational projects.

Earlier, on February 27, President Aliyev and Russian presidential
chief-of-staff Narishkin opened a Baku branch of Moscow State
University. Aliyev’s sister-in-law, Nargiz Pashayeva, the sister of
First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva, will run the school, which has faculties
in language and literature, chemistry and mathematics. "We appreciate
the attention which the Azerbaijani leadership pays to the Russian
language and Russian culture," declared Lavrov.

That attention, however, did not extend to language use during the
press conference. In a departure from usual Foreign Ministry practice
for press conferences with visiting Russian officials, Mammadyarov who
is fluent in Russian, made his statements in Azeri.

The choice served as a subtle reminder that Azerbaijan’s government
remains keen on pursuing its own interests and friendships in the
region without kowtowing to Moscow’s traditional influence.

Iran is increasingly emerging as a potential foil to both Russian and
US interests in Azerbaijan. Lavrov’s visit to Baku followed on the
heels of President Aliyev’s March 10 visit to Tehran for talks with
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. No important statements were
made after the visit, although seven various cooperation agreements
were signed.

Editor’s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent based in
Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society
Institute-Azerbaijan.