Economist
March 12 2009

Turkish foreign policy
Repairing the bridge

Mar 12th 2009 | ANKARA AND TEHRAN
The Economist print edition

The diplomatic benefits of an undiplomatic outburst

WHEN Recep Tayyip Erdogan stormed out of a panel discussion with
Israel’s President Shimon Peres in Davos last January, denouncing
Israel’s offensive in Gaza and quoting the sixth commandment `Thou
shalt not kill’, many wondered whether he had just demolished Turkey’s
position as the bridge between the Jews and the Arabs, and between the
West and the Islamic world.

He certainly won plaudits among many Muslims, not least Iran’s
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Yet his outburst’and the rancour
against America and Europe that many Turks now express’seem not to
have done him any harm with the administration of Barack Obama. On the
contrary, at a time when America wants to reach out to the Muslim
world, Mr Erdogan’s popularity may be useful.

After visiting London, Brussels and Prague next month, Mr Obama will
travel to Turkey, keeping a pledge to visit a Muslim country in his
first 100 days. Delighted Turkish officials see favourable omens: they
say it will be the first time an American president has visited Turkey
without also making an obligatory visit to its rival, Greece. They
interpret Mr Obama’s decision to visit as part of a European tour,
rather than a Middle Eastern one, as confirmation of Turkey’s
importance in NATO and a message of American support for Turkey’s wish
to join the European Union.

One senior official spoke of a new `golden era’ in Turkish-American
relations, with co-operation on a host of issues: the Arab-Israeli
dispute; opening a dialogue between America and Iran to curb Tehran’s
nuclear programme; stabilising Iraq as American forces leave; and
opening energy pipelines through the Caucasus.

Perhaps the most important of these issues is Iran. This week Turkey’s
President Abdullah Gul, in Tehran for a regional economic summit, met
the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It was the first
time the leader of a NATO member state had been given such an
audience, said Mr Gul’s entourage. Iranian leaders listened as Mr Gul,
who recently met the American secretary of state, Hillary Clinton,
urged Iran to take up an American olive branch. Mrs Clinton said Iran
would be invited to a meeting in The Hague later this month of
Afghanistan’s neighbours and countries contributing troops to the
NATO-led stabilisation mission there.

Still, Turkish officials are holding back their hopes of an early
breakthrough between America and Iran. It is hard for `an iceberg to
melt overnight’, says one. America will probably not want to move
until after Iran’s presidential elections in June. It fears that a
quick thaw would strengthen the hardline Mr Ahmadinejad, who could
claim that his policy of nuclear defiance had succeeded in forcing
America to deal with Iran on its own terms. Until then, Turkey hopes
America will restrain the incoming Israeli government from turning up
hostile rhetoric against Iran, or from trying to attack its nuclear
facilities.

Iran, for its part, told Turkey it wants more confidence-building
steps from Washington. In public, it shows little sign of
softening. Mr Ahmadinejad dismissed Turkey’s mediation. Mr Khamenei
said America had made `big mistakes’ in Iraq, Afghanistan and
Gaza. `The American government is continuing the same previous path
and there is no sign of efforts to make up for the mistakes,’ he said.

Turkey wants to highlight Mr Erdogan’s other moves: helping repair
Syria’s relations with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and pushing for
reconciliation between the two Palestinian factions, Hamas and
Fatah. Turkey also claims to have played a part in bringing together
the leaders of Afghanistan and Pakistan. `Obama knows that,’ says Mr
Gul.

As Europe frets about the reliability of oil and gas supplies from
Russia’a dispute with Ukraine in January left much of eastern and
central Europe freezing’Turkey’s position as the alternative route for
energy supplies through Georgia should enhance its standing. This
fragile corridor would be strengthened if Turkey were to succeed in
another ambition: a grand bargain to resolve border disputes involving
Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan.