Point-Blank Denial

WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
March 13, 2009 Friday

POINT-BLANK DENIAL

by Nikolai Filchenko

SERGEI LAVROV WENT TO BAKU, AZERBAIJAN, TO DENY ANTI-RUSSIAN RUMORS;
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is visiting Azerbaijan to deny a
Russian-Armenian arms deal worth $800 million.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with Azerbaijani
leaders in Baku later today. Lavrov will discuss Nagorno-Karabakh
settlement with his opposite number Elmar Mamedjarov and President
Ilham Aliyev. Along with everything else, Lavrov is expected to allay
official Baku’s fears concerning the future Strategic Response
Collective Forces of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization
and deny alleged transfer of $800 million worth of military hardware
to Armenia.

Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders Serj Sargsjan and Aliyev met in
Castle Meyendorf, residence of President Dmitry Medvedev near Moscow,
in November. Arranged on Medvedev’s initiative, the meeting culminated
in a joint declaration concerning peaceful settlement of the conflict
over Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia hailed its signing as a major diplomatic
victory. Indeed, the declaration became the first document the warring
sides signed in the last 18 years.

After the meeting, however, Yerevan and Baku never missed an
opportunity to accuse each other of escalation of tension in the
conflict area. Also importantly, each warring side did its best to
secure international support.

Knowing all too well that any serious progress is out of the question
at this point, official Moscow is determined to try and persuade
Armenia and Azerbaijan to abstain from forcing the issue. Lavrov will
acquaint Aliyev with Russia’s latest initiative. To be more exact, he
will offer assistance in organization of another meeting between the
presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The OSCE Minsk Group has been considering organization of
Azerbaijani-Armenian talks at the highest level within the framework
of the EU summit in the Czech Republic on May 7, one dedicated to the
Eastern Partnership initiative. Moscow will offer to organize the
meeting on the premises of the Embassy of Russia in Prague. If
Azerbaijan and Armenia accept the offer, Moscow will be given another
opportunity and reason to declare its constructive contribution to
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.

Before going down to peacekeeping initiatives, however, Russia will
have to address the problems that cropped up in the relations with
Azerbaijan. A scandal marred the bilateral relations between Baku and
Moscow in the middle of February. It was sparked by reports in the
Azerbaijani media on the $800 million worth of Russian military aid to
Armenia. The news provoked a brief information war between Azerbaijan
and Russia. It even included an interview with runaway Russian
oligarch Boris Berezovsky featured by where he said that
Russian Premier Vladimir Putin was a multimillionaire.

Lavrov will certainly try and dispel Baku’s suspicions concerning
transfer of weapons and military hardware to Armenia.

The decision of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization to
establish the Strategic Response Collective Forces made this February
is another issue bound to be on the agenda of the talks in Baku. When
documents on establishment of the Strategic Response Collective Forces
were signed in Moscow, Azerbaijan decided that this structure might be
used to promote the interests of Armenia, its adversary in the
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Some hotheads even suggested a
counter-move i.e. establishment of an analogous structure within GUAM
(Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova).

Lavrov announced on the eve of his departure for Baku that Azerbaijan
had no reasons to fear the Strategic Response Collective Forces. "All
these fears are absolutely groundless," he said. "Unlike NATO’s fast
response forces, the Strategic Response Collective Forces will only
operate on the territories of member states. Even the decision to
deploy them is to be made by presidents unanimously."

Source: Kommersant, March 12, 2009, p. 8

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