AZERBAIJAN OPENING SUPPLY ROUTE TO AFGHANISTAN
Roger McDermott
Jamestown Foundation
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March 17 2009
As the United States prepares to increase its military deployment in
Afghanistan, attention is being devoted to the question of supply
routes for these and other coalition forces. The U.S. European
Command (EUCOM) held a conference in Baku on March 9 and 10 aimed
at exploring ways to diversify the supply routes to include the
South Caucasus. Government officials from Azerbaijan, Georgia, and
Turkey attended, along with U.S military representatives from the
Surface Deployment and Distribution Command, Transportation Command,
Defense Logistics Agency, Department of Defense (DoD), and EUCOM,
as well as private transport companies. With Taliban pressure on the
supply route though Pakistan coupled with the Kyrgyz decision to close
the U.S. airbase at Manas, EUCOM has tried to find solutions to the
problem by involving private local companies in the South Caucasus
and Turkey to assist in the transit of non-lethal cargo to Afghanistan.
According to the Caspian navigation bureau, the new route through
the South Caucasus has already been successfully tested, with some
containers going though Azerbaijan and shipped to Afghanistan. Should
the route prove successful, it is planned to ship upward of 30,000
containers each month. More than 90 containers have already passed
through the port of Aktau, Kazakhstan, en route to Afghanistan. Ilham
Mammadov, the head of the foreign economic relations department of
the Caspian navigation bureau, explained how this solution would
make the use of military personnel in the transit of such goods
unnecessary: "This is related to delivering food to troops serving
in Afghanistan. The foodstuffs will be brought to Azerbaijan in
containers and will then be shipped either to Kazakhstan’s port of
Aktau or to Turkmenistan’s Turkmenbashy and will then be delivered
to the U.S. military in Afghanistan" (ANS TV, March 10).
U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan Anne Derse emphasized that
Washington considered Azerbaijan a key security partner and that
the transportation conference was another example of growing
practical bilateral security cooperation. Baku has been keen to
explore additional ways of participating in the war on terror since
withdrawing its peacekeeping troops from Iraq in late 2008. Derse
commented, "Cooperating with our partners, we see opportunities for
investigating the potential to purchase commercial goods produced in
those countries and keep cargoes in storage. Thus, both directions
will benefit the local economy and will support Azerbaijan’s efforts
to develop as a regional transport center" (APA News Agency, March 10).
Terry Davidson, head of the public relations department of the
U.S. embassy in Baku, pointed to the emerging role of Azerbaijan in
Washington’s search for alternatives to Manas and for diversifying
supply routes for the coalition forces in Afghanistan:
We are searching for convenient ways. As a result, some agreements are
already in place on purchasing and delivering some goods. Non-military
issues–foodstuffs and everyday goods–were discussed in Baku. It
is not just about turning Azerbaijan into a depot but also about
the transport and storage of goods from all countries in the supply
chain. This is cooperation. On the other hand, the U.S. military will
be receiving services from various organizations and private companies
(ANS TV, March 10).
Some Azeri analysts argue that such transit agreements could also
pave the way for U.S. military basing within the country, should this
become necessary, making use of the warehouses for humanitarian aid as
arms depots. While such options remain plausible, it seems unlikely
that Washington will press the military dimension too far within the
South Caucasus, concentrating instead on using commercial companies
to resolve the logistical needs of the coalition forces in Afghanistan
(Azadliq, March 10).
On March 5 Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan reportedly told
Zalmay Aziz, Afghanistan’s ambassador in Yerevan, that Armenia was
ready to assist coalition forces in Afghanistan by opening its airspace
for the transport of personnel. "Since the coalition forces launched an
operation in Afghanistan, Armenia has been expressing its readiness to
assist in transiting military cargo and to make its air space available
for transporting personnel," Ohanyan said (Interfax, March 6).
Georgia has also confirmed its readiness to facilitate the formation
of a new transit route. Moreover, it does not rule out hosting a
U.S. airbase, should Washington pursue this possibility. "If the
United States thinks it wants to establish a base, we would seriously
consider it," Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze told Japan’s
Nikkei newspaper on March 12 (AFP, March 12). Such military basing
plans would undoubtedly prove highly controversial, given the tense
relationship that persists between Moscow and Tbilisi following the
war last August. The more urgent priority for U.S. and NATO military
planners is to diversify the existing supply lines for the mission
in Afghanistan
Through EUCOM’s close cooperation with the U.S. Central Command,
a new supply route is likely to emerge with the South Caucasus
connecting to the overland route passing though Central Asia. Air
transportation routes transiting the South Caucasus could either go
from Turkey through Armenia or Georgia, Azerbaijan across the Caspian,
and use Kazakh and Uzbek airspace; or a more direct route could go
through Turkmen airspace. The South Caucasus overland supply routes
could begin in Turkey or alternatively could use local purchases
of goods in Azerbaijan before being shipped across the Caspian to
Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan. A cheaper option would be to fly goods
from Azerbaijan though Turkmen airspace into Afghanistan. Azerbaijan
looks set to benefit from the closure of Manas, while Western planners
refocus on expanding supply routes in a way that does not involve a
scramble for alternative bases.