IT IS MOST IMPORTANT FOR ARMENIA TO REMAIN ON THE OCCUPIED LANDS OF AZERBAIJAN AS LONG AS POSSIBLE: RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST

Today.Az
ics/51116.html
March 17 2009
Azerbaijan

It is most important for Armenia to remain on the occupied lands
of Azerbaijan as long as possible, said Russian political scientist
Alexander Karavayev, chief of the service of political forecast of
the Center of studying post-Soviet area.

According to him, it is difficult to say anything clearly whether
there is still a perspective or danger of resumption of hostilities
in Nagorno Karabakh for the interests of any party-either Azerbaijan,
Armenia, Russia or West.

"On the one hand, we hear every day about the fire on the line on
armed confrontation and tensions is constantly felt. Therefore, we
can not reject anything or even speak of any terms. Another matter is
that if we agan compare the situation around Nagorno Karabakh with
Georgian conflicts, the probability of resumption of hostilities
between Azerbaijan and Armenia is extremely low.

Here I mean hostilities that would not go beyond the framework
of small incidents when there is information about the passage of
one or even a group of soldiers over the contact line. Of courses,
such cases are not a cause to resume war, though on the other hand,
the cause can be insignificant. But on the whole we see that each
side finds it difficult to start war, considering that superpowers
will not render a direct aid either to Armenia or Azerbaijan for the
armed completion of this conflict", noted the political scientist.

He said we can not state that Russia will provide Armenia with any
sources for it to fix in the region.

"On the whole, when I hear some statements that Armenia is planning
hostilities to expand the occupation area, I ask a question to
myself-why does it need it for? As in the sense of Armenian military
planning this is an absolute nonsense", noted Kaaravayev

It is most important for Armenia to remain on the occupied lands of
Azerbaijan as long as possible, said he.

"But another matter is that when Azerbaijan pays attention to different
possible variants of the development of such a script. They usually
try to substantiate the division of geopolitical spheres of influence,
which would mean deployment of peacekeeping contingent there in the
framework of NATO, or other framework but without Russia, or vise
versa, deployment of peacekeeping contingent by CSTO and Russia",
he said and concluded that such measures can cardinally change
the regional system of security balances and influence the wider
redistribution of powers in the Near East region.

Such scripts, he said deserve instant attention but on the whole it
is just clear that today the South Caucasus region is not so important.