CASPIAN PROSPECTS: LAVROV TESTED IN BAKU THE SOIL FOR THE FORMATION OF A NEW REGIONAL ALLIANCE
by Sokhbet Mamedov

Nezavisimaya Gazeta website
March 13 2009
Moscow

Russia is hoping to use the Qabala radar even after 2012

Baku – Caspian topics and also the first results of implementation
of the Declaration of Friendship and Strategic Partnership Between
Russia and Azerbaijan of 3 July 2008 underlay the negotiations that
were held on Thursday [12 March] in Baku by Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov. The negotiations were held as part of a two-day visit
to Azerbaijan.

Lavrov spoke about the purposes of his visit to Baku in a lengthy
interview for several Azerbaijani press agencies on the eve of
his arrival in Baku. "I hope during the scheduled meeting with the
president of the Republic of Azerbaijan to hear the opinions of the
Azerbaijani head of state on the present state and prospects of the
development of relations between our countries," Lavrov said. He
observed here that "I am geared up for a comprehensive discussion
with Foreign Minister [Elmar] Mammadyarov on the entire range of key
issues of the bilateral agenda, including political cooperation and
interaction in the economic and humanitarian fields."

Specifying what he had said, the minister announced that "the foreign
policy component of the talks will be very full, naturally. Russia
and Azerbaijan, as allied states and active regional players, have
many subjects for discussion. Among them, of course, are Caspian
affairs, including determination of the legal status of the Caspian,
the formation of a multilateral mechanism in support of security in
the Caspian, and the organization of Caspian economic cooperation".

We should note that the local press has for several days now been
giving extensive coverage to the visit to Azerbaijan of the leader
of Russia’s foreign policy department. Since not all nuances of the
negotiations will be made public, the senior political pundits are
pointing in their commentaries to the presence of two main topics,
at a minimum. Mubariz Ahmadoglu, director of the Centre for Political
Innovation and Political Technology, says there may be no doubt that
the main topic was a settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

"Russia is unwilling as yet to hand over to anyone the initiative
in a settlement of this problem. The United States and France are
not involving themselves in our conflict in full strength, you could
say. And I believe that Russia will take advantage of this situation,"
the political pundit told NG [Nezavisimaya Gazeta].

Eldar Valiyev, columnist of the Zerkalo newspaper, believes that it is
most likely that Lavrov will in Baku test the soil for the formation
in the region of an anti-American alliance. "Russia is the sponsor
of the formation of a multilateral mechanism in support of security
in the Caspian and a new regional structure – the Caspian Economic
Cooperation Organization (OKES). Moscow believes that the formation
of a new regional organization in the Caspian would strongly boost
a convergence of the positions of the countries of the region and
permit them to more confidently defend their foreign policy interests
internationally. For Russia this means the start of an active offensive
against the policy of the United States in the South Caucasus and
Central Asia," the columnist observes.

Few people are noticing against this background the presence of
such topics of considerable importance as Iran and the Nabucco gas
project. Lavrov’s visit to Baku in the immediate aftermath of the
Tehran session of the Economic Cooperation Organization should hardly
in this sense be considered a mere coincidence. Consequently, this
subject could not have been avoided at the meeting with the president
of Azerbaijan.

First, Iran is exhibiting unprecedented assertiveness for
participation in implementation of the Nabucco project, contemplating
the transportation of gas by its territory from Turkmenistan
included. Second, Tehran, like Moscow, is not a supporter of the
increased presence of the United States and Western countries in the
Caspian. Both these topics are, one way or another, the focus of the
attention of Russian foreign policy, which would like to win over
Azerbaijan, which makes no secret of its endeavour to integrate in
Euro-Atlantic structures, also. In a word, Russia’s foreign minister
had more than enough topics for discussion in Baku. But it will be
some time, to all appearances, before the specifics of results of
the negotiations here are known.

Sergey Lavrov also discussed the prospects of Russia’s use of the
Qabala radar in Azerbaijan even after 2012, when the agreement on its
lease expires. "The Russian Federation is interested in cooperation
with the Azerbaijanis in the use of the Qabala radar and will
materialize this interest through arrangements with our Azerbaijani
colleagues," Lavrov said about the results of the negotiations with
Elmar Mammadyarov.