RESULTS OF REFERENDUM IN AZERBAIJAN ARE MODEST, FAIRLY DEMOCRATIC
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
19.03.2009 GMT+04:00

Long stay in power dulls the ability to adequately perceive the
reality and react to the changes in outward things.

Results of referendum in Azerbaijan are modest, fairly democratic:
92.17% of voters balloted against exclusion from the Constitution
Clause 5 of Article 101, saying "No one can be elected a president
of the Republic of Azerbaijan more than two consecutive presidential
terms". Out of 4.9 million voters of Azerbaijan 3.478.571 people took
part in the elections, or 71.08%.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The amendment will allow the current President of
Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev to preserve his seat as leader of the country
for an indefinite period. Aliyev was elected to his first term in
2003 and was reelected last October with 88.73% votes.

As a matter of principle, the overall results, or rather the figures
could be different; instead of 92%, they could, for example, be 100%
or even 105%, as it was at the time of the elections of Georgian
President Mikhail Saakashvili. Of course, Ilham Aliyev is more
democratic than Saakashvili for the mere reason that unlike Georgia,
he has gas and oil. It isn’t important that the oil reserves are too
modest; the essential thing is that they can be gambled on. Baku is
always forgetting that the world has changed after Barack Obama was
elected a president. It has changed so much that even "brotherly"
Turkey is reconsidering her policy towards Azerbaijan. As noticed,
long stay in power dulls the ability to adequately perceive the reality
and react to the changes in outward things. This was the main reasons
that after 4 consecutive presidential terms of in fact great President
Franklin Delano Roosevelt the USA, anyway, put restrictions on the
term of office of US presidents. The amendment to the US Constitution
was adopted in 1951. Eight years is nearly an optimal period, but
not for the Aliyev clan, which, to all appearances, will be governing
Azerbaijan for good, or, at least, until the carbohydrates are up.

And before it in sultanate – Azerbaijan cannot be called otherwise –
there will be held another referendum, which will ensure lifelong
power for Aliyev and his offspring. One could say Heydar Aliyev’s
dream has come true or, at least, it is on its way…

The amendments include another interesting detail: the presidential
term can be prolonged if conduct of military operations during wartime
makes it impossible to hold regular presidential elections. In this
case, the term is prolonged till the end of the operations. That is,
only for the sake of permanent governing Ilham Aliyev can simply
declare war against Nagorno Karabakh, which, in its turn, may result
in the collapse of both Azerbaijan and the Aliyev dynasty.

It is not difficult to predict the further steps and statements of the
Azerbaijani leadership: first, for decency, the new sultan will "thank
the people who love him", then he will do away with the opposition,
and… afterwards will meet the President of Armenia. But there is
still enough time till May 7, the assumed meeting in Prague, for
Azerbaijan to manage a couple of statements, like "The Azerbaijanis’
patience is coming to an end", "Territorial integrity of Azerbaijan
is firm", etc.

In all this story of the referendum there is one more fact that
casts doubt on "Azerbaijan’s democratic state and correspondence
to international standards", as well as "full approval" of the
observers. To all appearances, it’s all the same to the observers
from various international organizations what outcome elections in
post-Soviet states will have, since they are defined as falsified
from the very beginning. They cannot be democratic or open; simply,
they can sometimes not live up to the expectations of the West and the
USA. Only in this case, there begin accusations and threats, followed
by sanctions. And it’s rather interesting: this play to the audience
sometimes works. It was the case with the presidential elections
in Armenia. Politicians had allegedly scrupulously calculated what
dreadful results Armenia would face after separation from PACE, the
Program "Millennium Challenges". But, in reality, it is just twisting
of arms of the authorities so that they would not be independent –
no matter of whom. Among all the examples the case with Azerbaijan is
the worst: people swallowed the results of the referendum; opposition
did not stir a finger, and Mehriban Aliyeva gained a reputation of a
"kind" first lady by submitting the draft Law on Amnesty. Naturally,
Ilham Aliyev could not turn her down.

It is almost impossible to imagine a lifelong president in
Armenia. After all, it is pointless too: Baku has her policy, we
have ours.