Center for Research on Globalization, Canada
April 22 2006
Strike Iran, Watch Pakistan and Turkey Fall
What are the consequences of such an action?
by John Stanton
April 22, 2006
GlobalResearch.ca
`Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think
we’re being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I’m liable
to be put away as insane for expressing that. That’s what’s insane
about it.’ John Lennon
Just when it seemed unlikely that domestic and international events
would unfold to test an already incompetent US government, along
comes the acceleration of the movement to destroy Iran. That effort
has been well documented over the past few years in scores of
articles and position papers from the usual suspects in the media,
think-tanks, and the Net. What’s missing in that coverage, though, is
an understanding of the consequences of such an action, or
consequence management in Pentagon parlance. More’s the pity in this
discussion, comes the knowledge that the majority of Americans who
are calling for military action – from all strata of society–do so as
if they were casually ordering a pizza from Dominoes. Just pick-up
the cellphone and, while salivating, order the Iranian War Special.
Sit back and enjoy the pizza while watching the war coverage on
television and gruesome videos on the Net. *****..Ahhh, look at that
Specter Gunship at work! Whoa! Look at those body parts flying
around. Pass me another piece of pizza!
That attitude is indicative of an intellectually bankrupt society.
Does anyone in the USA think anymore? An attack on Iran would result
in thousands of casualties for both US and Iranian military
personnel, most of whom are youngsters. Civilian casualties would be
in the many thousands. The ripple effect from such an action would
cause a chain reaction of events that would spiral out of control.
With no country, or group of countries, capable of de-escalating such
a conflict–save for Russia and China–a world war could ensue.
Certainly, the US government is no position to cope with the fallout,
particularly if it deploys and uses tactical nuclear weapons. For
some sane commentary on the matter, one has to rely on the lucid
commentary of Martin Van Crevald over in Israel. His piece in Forward
titled, Knowing Why Not to Bomb Iran is Half the Battle (forward.com)
should be force-fed to supporters of an Iranian invasion.
Hello United Free Kurdistan
According to a Reuters bulletin dated April 20th, Turkey has
increased its troop presence in Kurdish dominated Southeastern Turkey
by 40,000 – bringing the total to 290,000. The Turkish government made
that move because the American-backed Kurdish government in Northern
Iraq/Kurdistan is likely to supply the Kurdistan Workers Party (PPK)
with arms and intelligence on Turkish military movements in Hakkari,
Van, Sirnak and other major cities in the country. It is likely that
insurgents in Iraq have been training the PPK in the tactics that
have been wildly successful against US forces in Iraq. Turkey has
been ruthless in its oppression of the Kurds, as Saddam Hussein was,
and that practice, according to the Kurdish National Congress
(kncna.org), continues to this day with the Turkish Army’s secret
police, Jitem, terrorizing the Kurdish population. Reliefweb.net,
reports that the Kurdish language was not legalized until 1991 and
the Turkish government had engaged in forced displacements as late as
2002 to break-up concentrations of the 20 million Kurds who reside in
Turkey. Separatist statements by Kurds or talk of recognizing the
Armenian Genocide results in doing some hard time in a Turkish jail.
The Turkish government has frequently complained about the duplicity
of the US government as it plays its Kurdish cards. The US has
largely stayed away from Turkey’s battle with its Kurds while
actively supporting Kurdish groups in Iran and Syria with funds and
arms. The creation of Kurdistan in Northern Iraq has infuriated
Turkish leaders. When Condolezza Rice visits with Turkish officials
in late April, these matters are sure to be topics of discussion.
Meanwhile in Iran, there are approximately four million Kurds who
have suffered a similar fate as their Turkish compatriots. The Kurds
in Iran are split on the type of revolt they want to run. One group
formed in January 2006, the Kurdish United Front, wants to work
within the Iranian system to gain equal rights. They likely receive
funds from the US government via the KNC and other outlets. A Kurdish
insurgent group known as Pejak–supported by the US government and
working with US Special Forces and intelligence agencies on the
ground–advocates the violent overthrow of the Islamic government in
Iran.
Back in Turkey, the Kurds are not the only problem. There are
accusations by opponents of Turkish President Recep Ergodan that
Turkey is becoming a theocracy. Facing an election in 2007, the last
thing Ergodan needs is to be perceived as an Islamic radical and
incur the wrath of opponents supported by the Turkish military, which
is to say the US military. The World Peace Herald, wpherald.com,
carried a story titled, Turkish PM Tied to Islamic Forces. `In
increasingly bitter verbal exchanges with President Ahmet Necdet
Sezer, Mr. Erdogan rejected charges that he is leading Turkey away
from its secular system toward Islamic fundamentalism. Mr. Sezer’s
latest broadside was a statement to the War Academy that ‘religious
fundamentalism has reached dramatic proportions. Islamic
fundamentalism is trying to infiltrate politics, education and the
state, it is systematically eroding values…”
So, as the bombs fly over Iran, the Kurds would be likely to seize
the day and fight for the recognition of a Kurdish state that deletes
portions of present-day Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq
() from the map. This is no idle
dream. The American based KNC openly advocates a United Free
Kurdistan. One day, there will be a Kurdish state. That could be done
in a non-violent fashion rather than as a consequence of a misguided
military adventure against Iran. Finally, an invasion of that country
would likely involve Turkish assets of some kind. As a member of
NATO, Turkey houses tactical nuclear weapons and, as reported by
Ramin Jahanbegloo in the Daily Star, `Participation by Turkey in a
US/Israeli military operation is also a factor [concerning Iran],
following an agreement reached between the Turks and Israelis.’
Central Asia and the Middle East would become a bloodbath one minute
after an attack on Iran.
Bye Bye Pakistan
In Pakistan, the US is having its cake and eating too. US weapons and
technology are being used by the Pakistani dictatorship of President
Musharraf to suppress a revolt for independence by the people of
Balochistan (), also home to Pakistan nuclear
tests in 1998 and a energy- rich province. The USA is also funding
anti-Pakistani insurgent groups in Bolochistan in order to infiltrate
drug operations, the black market for nuclear weaponry, Taliban
remnants, and assorted Islamic resistance groups like Al Qa’da that
have taken up residence in the hinterlands of Balochistan. The US
State Department’s 2004 country report on Pakistan was effusive in
its praise for Pakistan indicating that it was the key ally in the
Long War on Terror and that Pakistan has its internal affairs under
control. Yet the situation on the ground is quite different.
A February 2006 piece carried by sindhtoday.net/bs.htm has the
following headline: Chemical Gas, Gunship Copters Used Against Baloch
People. `Balochistan, the area’s largest and resource-rich province
of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, has recently taken another blood
bath where many innocent people have been killed in an [Pakistani]
army action. [Pakistani] Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao has claimed
that no children or woman have been killed in the recent operation
but photographs released show that many innocent children were
brutally killed in bombardment, as they can not be termed as
terrorists.’
Pakistan is suppressing news on the seriousness of its fight against
the Baloch. The number of killed-in action (KIA) its Army has
incurred combating the Boloch revolt is well over 100 with thousands
wounded. These troopers are portrayed by Musharraf as casualties in
the fight against foreign terror when, in fact, its akin to a civil
war: the Baloch are fighting for independence.
India Monitor reported in January 2006 that `Senator Sanaullah
Baloch, a vocal and influential member of the Balochistan National
Party…said that if conditions continued to be as oppressive for the
people of his home province, we will have no option but to exercise
our national right for self-determination for a separate
state…Today every Baloch knows that Pakistan is a viable state only
because of Balochistan…Pointing to the natural resources and the
strategic importance of the province in the region, he said that the
information revolution had made the world very small and today the
Baloch people could not be fooled, and wanted their rights.’ (The
dynamics of Kashmir, which threaten Pakistan’s stability, are beyond
the scope of this piece).
As Iran is pummeled by US air strikes, and the Kurds make their move,
What will the Baloch do? How will rebel groups like Al Qa’da respond?
Will they rally to their Iranian comrades? Would the Pakistani
military use a tactical nuke to wipe out all its problems in
Balochistan? What about India’s reaction? What will Turkmenistan and
the rest of the Stans do? Would Armenia side with the Turkish Kurds?
How will the US troops in Iraq handle the fallout?
In another stellar example of incompetence, the USA-Indo nuclear deal
struck by President Bush with Prime Minister Singh this past March
was suppose to be a signal to Russia and China that the US is
almighty. The USA seemingly gave no thought to what the deal with a
country that refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
might create. Pakistan has vowed to increase its nuclear weapons
capability. China has offered to build reactors for Pakistan and can
tinker with America’s prosperity via currency manipulation. Russian
nuclear forces are being upgraded. Saudi Arabia is alleged to have
purchased tactical nukes and is starting its own commercial and
military nuclear capability. In South America, Brazil has ramped up
production of its nuclear capabilities and will not allow inspectors
into certain nuke facilities. And there can be no question that
Venezuela will develop a nuke program or, like Saudi Arabia, just buy
the weapons outright on the black market.
You Say You Want a Revolution
Domestic factors in the USA have to be added to this already volatile
brew. The Red, White and Blue Revolt of retired US military generals
such as Gregory Newbold and Anthony Zinni carried out in the US
mainstream media is fascinating. Their call for Secretary of Defense
Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation is unprecedented in American wartime
history and indicates that the only credible opposition to a civilian
leadership gone mad is the military and big corporations. That other
party called the Democrats are part of the problem and not the
solution. As for President Bush; he dutifully does what he’s told by
Cheney and Rumsfeld.
Take note that the generals are key players in investment companies
like Globesecnine (Newbold is co-founder of globesecnine.com) and
Anthony Zinni is a board member of Veritas Capital (along with a
who’s who of former US military leaders). Wall Street helps fund
these groups and they may have figured, finally, that Rumsfeld is bad
for the military and business (read Jeffrey St. Clair of
counterpunch.org for more on that relationship). US intelligence
agencies like the CIA are always involved overtly or covertly in the
investment/stock trading business, and likely have involvement in
these investment firms. They are saying something too: revenge is
sweet.
With rebellion in the military and corporate ranks, and the potential
for more indictments of Bush Administration’s insiders (Karl Rove?)
in the Valerie Plame/Joe Wilson CIA case, one has to wonder how this
group of people could possibly manage the day-after realities of an
Iranian assault.
The USA is operating as if it really is an unchallenged superpower.
What kind of superpower has increasing poverty, homelessness,
unemployment and can’t even rebuild one of its premier cities – New
Orleans – after a hurricane? What kind of superpower refuses to make
concessions, to negotiate and treats other nations like China and
Russia as inferior entities? What nation is the Paper Tiger now? It
never had to be this way.
So what about Iran? The simple answer, in two parts, to all this
madness is to turn the Iranian matter over the the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), a NATO-like security coalition led by
China and Russia. Iran is soon to become a member of that group
anyway. Let the SCO monitor Iran as it builds its nuclear commercial
and military capability. Iran wants to be a key energy player in a
region it knows is dominated by Russia and China. The USA wants that
black gold to come West and have geopolitical control over Central
Asia. It’s never going to happen. It is inevitable that the Kurds and
Baloch will have their independent states, the Iranians and
Brazilians will have their nuclear power/weapons, the Chinese will
have their ascendancy, the Russians will return to the world stage,
and the Palestinians will get a fair shake one day.
Secondly, negotiate. More than ever, the USA needs to get back to the
negotiating table. Maybe some grand brain out there should read
NSC-68, Sec IX, authored in 1950 and designed to deal with the former
Soviet Union. `The free countries must always, therefore, be prepared
to negotiate and must be ready to take the initiative at times in
seeking negotiation. They must develop a negotiating position which
defines the issues and the terms on which they would be prepared–and
at what stages–to accept agreements… The terms must be fair in the
view of popular opinion… This means that they must be consistent
with a positive program for peace–in harmony with the United
Nations’ Charter and providing, at a minimum, for the effective
control of all armaments by the United Nations or a successor
organization.’
Talking? Negotiating? Why not the SCO?
What an insane thought.
John Stanton is a Virginia based writer specializing in national
security and political matters. He is the author of A Power But Not
Super and co-author of America’s Nightmare. Reach him at
[email protected]
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