WTO FORECASTS 9% WORLD TRADE FALL

PanARMENIAN.Net
24.03.2009 18:47 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The collapse in global demand brought on by the
biggest economic downturn in decades will drive exports down by
roughly 9% in volume terms in 2009, the biggest such contraction
since the Second World War, WTO economists forecast today. The
contraction in developed countries will be particularly severe with
exports falling by 10% this year. In developing countries, which are
far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some
2%-3% in 2009, WTO economists say.

Economic contraction in most of the industrial world and steep export
declines already posted in the early months of this year by most major
economies — particularly those in Asia — makes for an unusually
bleak 2009 trade assessment, said the WTO in its annual assessment
of global trade.

Signs of the sharp deterioration in trade were evident in the latter
part of 2008 as demand sagged and production slowed. Although world
trade grew by 2% in volume terms for the whole of 2008 it tapered off
in the last six months and was well down on the 6% volume increase
posted in 2007.

"For the last 30 years trade has been an ever increasing part
of economic activity, with trade growth often outpacing gains in
output. Production for many products is sourced around the world so
there is a multiplier effect — as demand falls sharply overall, trade
will fall even further. The depleted pool of funds available for trade
finance has contributed to the significant decline in trade flows, in
particular in developing countries," said Director-General Pascal Lamy.

"As a consequence, many thousands of trade related jobs are being
lost. Governments must avoid making this bad situation worse
by reverting to protectionist measures which in reality protect no
nation and threaten the loss of more jobs. We are carefully monitoring
trade policy developments. The use of protectionist measures is on
the rise. The risk is increasing of such measures choking off trade
as an engine of recovery. We must be vigilant because we know that
restricting imports only leads your trade partner to follow suit and
hit your exports. Trade can be a potent tool in lifting the world
from these economic doldrums. In London G20 leaders will have a unique
opportunity to unite in moving from pledges to action and refrain from
any further protectionist measure which will render global recovery
efforts less effective," WTO official website cited Mr. Lamy as saying.