TURKEY, ARMENIA ON THE ROAD TO NORMALIZING STRAINED RELATIONS
318563.asp?gid=244
March 31, 2009 07:51
ANKARA – Turkey and Armenia agree on the roadmap to establish
diplomatic ties and open the shared border. The timing of the
declaration of the agreement remains key for Ankara. The key question
is whether to announce the agreement before, during or after President
Obama’s visit.
Ankara and Yerevan have agreed on the major parameters of a historic
reconciliation in secret talks to start diplomatic relations and
re-open their shared border, which Turkey closed in 1993 after Armenia
occupied the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Turkey and Armenia are readying to sign a protocol that marks
commitment by both sides to establish diplomatic relations and set up
committees on issues ranging from border management, customs, history
and more. Having achieved a satisfying deal which includes setting
up a history committee to discuss 1915 events, on which Yerevan
dragged its feet for a long time, the remaining dilemma for Ankara
is the proper timing of the announcement, the Hurriyet Daily News &
Economic Review has learned.
"The hard work is done. Everybody has faith that the deal will be
made public soon," a diplomat told the Daily News, speaking on the
condition of anonymity.
The draft protocol will set the framework for transition to full
diplomatic relations possibly starting with low-key representations
in Ankara and Yerevan or accreditation of ambassadors from other
neighboring capitals.
Simultaneously Turkey will come up with a road map for a solution
in Nagorno-Karabakh. The modalities of the new border regime will be
determined upon the work by the border committee while as part of a
show of good will immediate measures would be taken for a gradual
opening. Diplomatic recognition will be supported by social and
economic projects with coordination of the Turkish Armenian Business
Development Council, or TABDC.
Reconciliation efforts between the two neighbors intensified in
secret talks after moderate Serge Sarkisian was elected president of
Armenia in February 2008 and Turkish President Abdullah Gul paid a
landmark visit to Yerevan to attended Turkey-Armenia football match
in September.
Turkey’s difficult choice on the ‘date’
Although U.S President Barack Obama will be in Turkey on April 6 and 7
with a wider agenda, long-awaited normalization of ties between Ankara
and Yerevan will be on the shortlist of important topics. Friends of
Turkey in Washington favor an announcement by Ankara this week prior to
Obama’s arrival. Obama had pledged to recognize the Armenian killings
in 1915 during his election campaign last year. This would both
maintain a vigorous effect on Obama himself and also strengthen his
hand to counter arguments of Armenian lobbies in the United States that
invested hopes in his presidency, according to American policymakers.
It is not clear, however, if Obama’s expected April 24 statement on
Armenian deaths will include qualifying the killings as genocide or if
he will support the latest U.S. House of Representatives resolution
introduced two weeks ago. Thus Ankara is keen to wait until strong
assurances are secured from the U.S administration during Obama’s
visit before publicly announcing the deal with Armenia. "The ball is
actually in the U.S.’s court," an expert said pointing to Obama as
the key player in April’s moves.
If Turkey insists not to proceed with the announcement before Obama’s
meetings in Ankara, then there are two other symbolic dates on the
horizon that would serve as meaningful opportunities for announcing
the historic deal. The UN-sponsored Alliance of Civilizations summit
in Istanbul, which coincides with Obama’s visit, is the first
opportunity because Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian
will also attend. The next option is Turkish Foreign Minister Ali
Babacan’s trip to Yerevan on April 16 to attend a meeting of the Black
Sea Economic Cooperation Organization. Although the Turkish Foreign
ministry has not publicized the decision yet, Yerevan was informed
of confirmation of Babacan’s attendance, the Daily News learned.
Meanwhile Armenian lobbies in the United States has put pressure on
the Yerevan administration to stall the announcement of the deal with
Turkey until after the April 24 commemoration in order not to loose
their leverage, according to observers in Washington.
Cabinet or Parliament decision?
According to Turkish law, the decision to recognize a state could
be given by the Cabinet. It’s not clear yet, however, if the ruling
Justice and Development Party, or AKP, would stick to a Cabinet
decision only to start to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia
or bring the issue to Parliament. Another option is to pen an agreement
to restore diplomatic ties with Armenia which would have to be ratified
by Parliament. The reasons behind consideration for parliamentary
approval are to minimize repercussions that may be triggered by
opposition parties and to share the burden of this critical move.