US THINK-TANK REPORT CONTAINS ODD SUGGESTIONS ON TURKEY

Today’s Zaman
April 1 2009
Turkey

Releasing an updated report on Turkey days before US President
Barack Obama’s official visit to the Turkish capital, an influential
Washington-based think tank has also examined the impacts of a
prospective change of power in Turkey on the future of bilateral
relations between the two NATO allies.

The report, titled "Turkey’s Shifting Dynamics," an update of
a previous report, was released by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), which also hosted a press briefing with
several of its scholars: Bulent Alirıza, director of the CSIS Turkey
Project; Reginald Dale, director of the Transatlantic Media Network;
Stephen Flanagan, the Henry A. Kissinger Chair; and Steven Schrage,
Scholl Chair in International Business.

"If a more nationalist civilian or military leadership were to emerge
in Ankara, this need not necessarily threaten the alliance. Although
such governments would be more likely to be isolationist and to focus
on perceived internal and external enemies, the relationship would
be sustained by enduring common interests. Nevertheless, continuous
high-level engagement by US and Turkish officials would be required
to prevent disagreements from derailing the relationship. An avowedly
Islamist Turkey would severely reduce the extent of cooperation,
however, and might even challenge US policies, particularly in the
Middle East," says the report.

It also notes in its foreword that "civil-military relations in Turkey
are far from the Western model, and the military studiously insulates
itself from civil society."

"A major economic downturn would likely stoke nationalist sentiments
and could erode democracy. The TGS [the Turkish General Staff] would
not seek a role of policy leadership under these circumstances, but
it could become even more influential. This would not mean the end of
the US-Turkish alliance as more limited cooperation on common interests
could probably be sustained," it says. "A new national consensus on how
greater religiosity and the secular state can coexist comfortably is
not on the horizon, and in the meanwhile, Kemalist ideology will remain
the official dogma of the state enshrined in its constitutional order,
motivating the TGS and restricting the power of elected governments
to act without the necessary and belated redefinition of what exactly
it means for the country in the twenty-first century."

CSIS scholars were asked to elaborate whether they believed that there
is a risk of the emergence of an Islamist state in Turkey, because
the report says that certain "strictures, often called Kemalism,
maintained by the Constitutional Court and the TGS, effectively
prevent the emergence of an Islamist state in Turkey."

Flanagan said that they were trying to describe the balance of
political power within Turkey without taking sides in that debate. "We
didn’t think that the AK Party’s [the ruling Justice and Development
Party] agenda was hidden at all," he added.

"I don’t think we are going to have an Islamist state in Turkey. I
don’t think too many people want an Islamist state even if it
could be done. I also think the secular system needs to be revised,
restructured," Alirıza said.

Obama and a new strategic framework

The report, meanwhile, highlights that "opportunities for enhanced
cooperation and restoration of the basic structure of Turkey’s
Euro-Atlantic relationship exist," and more importantly "these can be
found in Turkey’s diplomacy with Iran, Iraq, and Syria; moves toward
normalization of relations with Armenia; and a continued positive
role in the democratization, economic development, and stabilization
of the Caucasus and beyond."

CSIS scholars mainly shared their assessments which, they said,
they hope "will further dialogue on the renewal of this strategic
and increasingly complex relationship" between Turkey and the United
States.

According to the scholars, the administration of US President Barack
Obama has an opportunity to forge a more strategic relationship with
Turkey, one in which both governments find ways to manage lesser
differences in order to maintain effective cooperation in the
advancement of critical, long-term interests.

"The US-Turkey relationship is increasingly complex and sometimes
messy. Fundamental changes and uncertainty in Turkey’s domestic
situation and neighborhood have altered how Turks perceive and pursue
their interests. US global and regional priorities have also shifted
since 2001. These differing political and geo-strategic situations
will continue to lead the two countries to pursue distinct and
sometimes divergent policies, and relations may remain somewhat
volatile. Ankara’s ‘zero problems’ approach to dealing with its
neighbors and commitment to dialogue with them will sometimes be
problematic for Washington. The question will linger whether Turkey
can be counted on to take a tough stance with the United States
when more palatable options are exhausted. There will also be times,
however, when Turkey’s ability to engage independently with some of
its nettlesome neighbors can be used to advance mutual interests,
as has been the case with Ankara’s facilitation of the Syria-Israel
indirect talks.

"A new strategic framework for bilateral relations that reflects these
evolving geopolitical dynamics and articulates a concrete positive
common agenda could help keep relations on course. Such a framework
could allow each country to forge common or complementary policies
where there is consensus and manage areas where policy preferences
or interests diverge. A sustained, high-level dialogue and a more
structured process to orchestrate diplomatic, economic, and military
cooperation would be a useful mechanism to manage this complexity."

Warning over ‘genocide’ resolution

The report, meanwhile, urges that "rather than seeking [to legislate]
history, the United States and the international community provide
maximum encouragement and support to the diplomatic rapprochement
being pursued by the governments of Turkey and Armenia, as well as to
emerging regional cooperation." It warns the US of a harsh reaction
from Turkey toward the US over a "presidential proclamation" for
recognizing killings of Anatolian Armenians during World War I as
genocide as well as over adoption of a congressional resolution for
such recognition.

"A near-term uncertainty in the relationship is the ‘Armenian
genocide resolution.’ If President Obama takes no action to prevent
congressional enactment of the resolution, endorses the measure, or
uses the word genocide himself, the Turkish response will be harsh
and trigger a bitter breach in relations," the report states.

"Creation of a joint Turkish-Armenian commission to explore this
painful chapter in history and its continued legacy could also
be helpful to that process," it suggests, in apparent reference
to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 2005 letter to
then-Armenian President Robert Kocharian, inviting him to establish
a joint commission of historians and experts from both Turkey and
Armenia to study the events of 1915 using documents from the archives
of Turkey, Armenia and any other country believed to have played a
part in the issue.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress