EASTERN PARTNERSHIP WILL HELP MEMBER-STATES MAKING REFORMS AND INTEGRATING INTO EUROPEAN COMMUNITY
By Aram Araratyan

ArmInfo
2009-04-01 10:07:00

An Interview with research fellow at the European Council on Foreign
Relations ( ECFR) Nicu Popescu

The European Union has approved the Eastern Partnership project. What
will this initiative bring to the countries involved?

Eastern Partnership project will help the countries involved in it make
reforms to improve statehood. The eastern neighbors of the European
Union are subject to crises and instability as they suffer from wars,
territorial conflicts, political crises for poor democracy and problems
with supply of power resources. Eastern Partnership will help them
overcome some of those crises. For instance, integration into European
gas market will make it possible for Ukraine to increase energy safety
and settle many problems that arouse also Russia’s concern. When EU
is involved into conflict settlement this may also help stabilizing
conflict situations.

Some analysts say the Eastern Partnership project becomes an obstacle
on the quick way to European Union for the countries involved. Do
you share this opinion?

is not a "quick way" to European integration. It is not an easy
process. For instance, such countries as Hungary and Czech Republic
need about 20 years to fully integrate in European Union. They launched
this process in 1991.

Later they established a free trade zone and customs unions with
the EU.

They joined the European Union in 2004 and then Schengen zone in
2007. They will probably join eurozone in 2011-2013. This is a very
long process with many stages. The progress of any state chiefly
depends on local reforms but not on promises of European Union. The
Eastern Partnership even theoretically cannot delay the process of
European integration. This project may just accelerate the process
helping the countries involved fulfill reforms and gradually integrate
into European community. The integration level depends on how serious
the neighbors of the European Union are ready to reform.

Do you agree with the opinion that Eastern Partnership is anti-Russian
and affects Russia’s interests and the spheres of its influence?

Eastern Partnership project does not have an anti-Russian dimension
since it does not much differ from the European Neighborhood Policy
adopted in 2003.

Eastern Partnership is just trying to repeat and accelerate the
process, which in any case would pass within the frames of the
European Neighborhood Policy. Thus, Russian complaints regarding
Eastern Partnership are rhetorical statements and are not based on
aspiration to understand the core of the project. European Union
wants to see stable, democratic and prosperous neighbors, and there
is nothing anti-Russian in theseaspirations since Russia successfully
cooperates with the EU as well. Look at the foreign trade data: over 50
percent of Russian commodity turnover is with EU states. All the post-
Soviet states except Moldova trade with the EU less than Russia. They
have still much to do to reach the level of Russia’s cooperation with
the EU.

Will the global financial crisis affect the implementation of Eastern
partnership project?

Global financial crisis may create some problems for implementation
of Eastern Partnership project. The procedures of establishing a
free trade zone and facilitating visa regime may slacken. In many
EU member-states and their neighbors protectionism is gathering
pace. Ukraine has recently raised import tariffs by 13% in average,
which hinders EU-Ukraine negotiations for establishment of a deep
free trade zone.

Nevertheless, it should not affect Eastern Partnership. Anyway,
establishment of free trade zone between the EU and neighbors is a
mid-term project. It is hardly possible within the coming 3-4 years
for many of the EU neighbor-states since the negotiations take several
years. The EU has launched negotiations with Ukraine so far. The
crisis will slow down the negotiations to some-extent. Anyway,
irrespective of the crisis, they will not be over soon.

The economic crisis may also increase the EU’s role in the post-Soviet
area. Over the last years the EU financial aid to its neighbors
was not so essential for them. These states had rather impressive
economic growth (often 10%), high inflow of money transfers from
migrants and possible support by Russia in case of necessity. EU
neighbor-states often did not need the support by such institutions
as the International Monetary Fund. Those times have passed. Since
the EU neighbors are experiencing hard time, the financial aid they
receive from the EU is becoming more and more important. The budget
of the European Neighborhood Policy is sustainable and will increase
due to the Eastern Partnership project. In addition, the EU’s vote
at the IMF is becoming significant. The EU has already supported
the IMF credits to Ukraine and Belarus. The current crisis makes the
cooperation of the EU and its neighbors important as never before.

Do you think it possible for Eastern Partnership member-states to
sign an agreement for EU associated membership for the nearest future?

It is possible but it may take several years since negotiations will
take rather long time.

May involvement of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Eastern Partnership
project influence settlement of the Karabakh conflict?

If we compare the EU’s involvement in settlement of the Nagorny
Karabakh conflict and the Transdniestrian conflict in Moldova, we will
see that the EU is more involved in the last one. It mostly depends
on Moldova’s desire to involve the EU in the settlement of the given
conflict. In the meanwhile both Armenia and Azerbaijan have not trie
d to seriously involve the EU in the settlement of Karabakh conflict.

Eastern Partnership will change something in this process only if
Armenia and Azerbaijan are ready to increase the EU’s role in the
process. EU has never forced up its services to partners.

Thank you for interview