NKR OFFICIAL ON AZERI REFERENDUM, ITS IMPACT ON KARABAKH

Politkom.ru
March 23 2009
Russia

[Interview with Ruben Zargaryan, adviser to the foreign minister of
the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic, by Georgiy Kovalev; date and place
not given: "Azerbaijan Marches Boldly in the Direction of North Korea"
– first paragraph is Politkom.ru introduction]

A referendum was held in Azerbaijan on 18 March on amendments to
the Constitution; the main amendment envisages the deletion from
the constitution of an article limiting the possibility of the same
person’s being elected president more than twice. The results of
the referendum, the reasons for its "hasty" holding, and the way in
which the changes that have taken place in Azerbaijan will affect
the process of the settlement of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict
are discussed in an interview with Ruben Zargaryan, adviser to the
foreign minister of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

[Kovalev] How do you assess the results of the referendum in
Azerbaijan?

[Zargaryan] The referendum removed the last formal obstacles to
remaining in the post of president for more than two terms, which
makes President Ilham Aliyev the undisputed lifetime leader of
Azerbaijan. Furthermore it is envisaged that the powers of the
president and parliament can be extended by a decision of the
Constitutional Court in the absence of the possibility of holding
elections in conditions of war. Characteristically, in Azerbaijan
the campaigning in favour of lifting the restriction on being
re-elected more than twice was justified, among other things,
by the need to create additional opportunities for Azerbaijan to
unleash a new war against the Nagornyy-Karabakh republic. Azerbaijan
refuses to recognize the concept of peaceful coexistence between the
Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan as two sovereign states,
and that is delaying a settlement in the most serious way. To this
day Azerbaijan has not renounced the possibility of further violence,
and above all armed intervention and other forms of interference or the
threat of interference aimed at destroying or limiting the sovereignty
and changing the political, economic, and cultural foundations of
Nagornyy-Karabakh and its people’s right freely to choose their form
of national existence.

The political process and the foreign policy decisionmaking
mechanism in democratic countries are characterized by structural and
institutional limitations such as the separation of powers, a system
of constitutional checks and balances, and the need to obtain support
for political decisions from a responsible civil society in the course
of public discussion. All of this substantially limits the adoption of
radical decisions, particularly on the question of war. The absence of
all of the above in Azerbaijan intensifies the threat of aggression
and of a surprise attack on the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic. A regime
that has no structural or institutional limitations on tyranny and
no developed political culture and which does not accept reasonable
compromises is capable of adopting voluntarist decisions on the
unleashing of a new war. The de-escalation of the conflict requires,
at the first stage, the signing of a legally binding treaty on the
nonuse of military force against the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic,
including international guarantees.

There is also another interesting point. Deputy of the Azerbaijani
parliament Rabiyyat Aslanova has stressed that "the holding
of the referendum is Azerbaijan’s internal affair in which,
under international law, interference from outside is not
permissible." This is a case of double standards, because Azerbaijan
itself is trying to usurp the right to determine the status of the
Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic and the question of holding a referendum in
the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic, which is the internal affair of the
Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic. Obviously the independent state status
of the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic is not subject to discussion
by anyone except the people of Nagornyy-Karabakh themselves, and
according to the norms of international law that status should be
immediately recognized.

[Kovalev] What is the reason for the haste in holding the referendum
in Azerbaijan, when presidential elections were held only recently?

[Zargaryan] The haste in holding the referendum was obviously prompted
by the world crisis, the fall in oil prices, and the growth of social
tension in Azerbaijan. It has long been obvious to many people that
Azerbaijan’s oil and gas potential, on the basis of which horse-trading
is being carried out with the West and with Russia, is a myth. It must
be stressed that the oil reserves in Azerbaijan are minimal. In the
past 25 years the extraction of oil in Azerbaijan has fallen by almost
two-thirds, while Azerbaijan’s share of world oil extraction amounts to
only 0.3 per cent. The oil reserves that are extracted in Azerbaijan
amount to 1 billion tonnes, which is only an insignificant share of
the 142 billion tonnes of reserves extracted worldwide. Azerbaijan’s
lack of gas for the Nabucco [pipeline] project has also become obvious
to everyone. Azerbaijan extracts just over 17 billion cubic meters of
gas. That is hardly enough to cover its own needs and to supply Georgia
and Turkey, whereas Nabucco needs 30 billion cubic meters of gas. The
other day the construction of Nabucco was deleted from the list of
projects subject to funding as a separate line in the EU budget.

[Kovalev] How might the changes in Azerbaijan affect the process of
settlement of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict?

[Zargaryan] The differences in the political system and political
culture of the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic and the Republic of
Azerbaijan are becoming increasingly obvious to the world. Azerbaijan
is marching boldly in the direction of North Korea. Azerbaijan
has a classical cult of the leader, a clan power structure, a
developed repressive apparatus, and control over the dissemination
of information. But in contrast to North Korea, in Azerbaijan the
ideology of racism and genocide still flourishes.

Freedom House, the international organization in defence of freedom,
issued a report on the status of freedoms in the world in 2009,
according to which the status of freedoms in Nagornyy-Karabakh is
judged better than in Azerbaijan, while the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic
is called a "partially free" country. Azerbaijan, as before, is
included on the list of non-free countries. The report emphasizes that
the situation in Azerbaijan has deteriorated over the past year. The
report mentions among the most negative aspects for non-free countries:
infringements of freedom of choice and freedom of expression and the
press, corruption, lack of transparency in the work of the government
and state organs, and tyranny by the law enforcement agencies.

Azerbaijan has ignored all the Council of Europe’s protests. On 16
March the Council of Europe’s Venetian Commission issued a negative
finding on the amendment on deleting from the Constitution the
point on the limit of two presidential terms. The lifting of the
limitation to a double presidential term is described as the most
"significant and dubious" amendment. The report emphasizes that the
"regular replacement of the regime through elections is a necessary
method of preventing an excessively great concentration of power in
the hands of the president." Deputy of the Azerbaijani parliament
Siyavus Novruzov gave the United States a kind of lesson in "democracy
Azerbaijani-style" by stating: "The limit on presidential terms is a
US legislative practice that subsequently began to be applied in other
countries. This limit is the biggest manifestation of anti-democracy."

The Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict must be analysed from the
standpoint of values. Attempts to subjugate the democratic
Nagornyy-Karabakh to the totalitarian Azerbaijan are nonsensical in
the 21st century. Nagornyy-Karabakh has managed to build a stable
democratic society and state. In the Nagornyy-Karabakh republic,
stable political institutions have been created and legitimate organs
of power and an influential central government operate. There have
repeatedly been elections to parliament, in 1991, 1995, 2000, and
2005. The president of the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic was elected
through direct general elections in 1996, early elections in 1997,
and in 2002 and 2007. Elections of the organs of local government
in the Nagornyy-Karabakh republic took place in 1998, 2001, 2004,
and 2007. The Constitution of the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic was
adopted in a referendum in 2006. A social consensus has become
established in Karabakh with regard to the fundamental values of the
Karabakh society. The legal basis and the judicial system are being
brought into line with European standards. A multiparty political
field is being actively developed in the Nagornyy-Karabakh Republic,
and nongovernmental organizations operate. The successes of Karabakh
democracy have received wide recognition in the world.

The key to the settlement of the Azerbaijani-Karabakh conflict is
the final recognition of the independence of the Nagornyy-Karabakh
republic and direct dialogue between the Nagornyy-Karabakh republic
and Azerbaijan. The success of the talks requires mutual recognition
by the participants in the conflict and full participation by
the Nagornyy-Karabakh republic in the talks process at a high
level. Nagornyy-Karabakh and Azerbaijan should possess equal
international rights and bear international legal responsibility for
their actions, and should also fulfil the UN Charter and the norms
and principles of international law. When Azerbaijan realizes that
the resolution of the problems is possible only through cooperation
with the Nagornyy-Karabakh republic and consequently through mutual
recognition, then the conflict will end.