APA
April 7 2009
Azerbaijan
RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST: AZERBAIJAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE MAXIMALLY STRICT POSITION ON THE REOPENING OF TURKEY-ARMENIA BORDERS – EXCLUSIVE
Moscow. Roman Agayev – APA. Director of Post-Soviet Research Center,
editor-in-chief of Vesti Kafkaza information portal, political
scientist Aleksei Vlasov’s interview to APA
-How much is the probability of the reopening of borders against the
background of broad discussions, despite the statements of Turkish
President and Prime Minister "The borders with Armenia will not be
reopened, unless Nagorno Karabakh conflict is solved"?
– I would assess this probability as fifty-fifty. The probability of
the reopening of borders is equal to not reopening of borders because
of some reasons. Some media outlets have launched strong propaganda,
it shows that there is no smoke without fire. It means that the issue
on the reopening of borders is being seriously considered as one of
the variants.
-How do you ground 50 percent probability of the reopening of borders?
-Such a variant of agreement is possible. It means that borders are
reopened and Armenia releases occupied Azerbaijani regions.
-Can it be attributed to Armenian Foreign Minister’s statements that
Nagorno Karabakh issue is not on the agenda of Turkey-Armenia dialogue?
-Frankly speaking, I would not view the situation in the South Caucasus
in the context of such senior officials. Very serious diplomatic game
may be played here. The history shows beginning from the 19th century
that diplomats fulfill their diplomatic duties by not telling the
truth. Therefore, I am not going to say that the statement of the
above-mentioned instance is true, nor accuse him of telling a lie.
-There are reports that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev refused
to attend the conference "The Alliance of Civilizations" in Turkey
protesting against the issue on the reopening of Turkey-Armenia
borders. How can this fact and all this information campaign launched
on the reopening of borders influence Azerbaijan-Turkey relations?
-I think that if Turkey-Armenia borders are opened in exchange
for Armenia’s releasing the occupied territories to Azerbaijan,
it will surely play the role of a strong PR for Azerbaijani
authorities. Because from practical point of view it will be the first
serious step for the solution to Nagorno Karabakh conflict. The
other issues will recede into the background. But in order to
achieve this, Azerbaijan should continue to take maximally strict
position. Azerbaijan should demonstrate that any deal, agreement
on this issue can be realized only if Azerbaijan’s interests are
defended in the South Caucasus, as well as Nagorno Karabakh as much
as the interests of the participants of the situation.
-How do you think, should the situation around Nagorno Karabakh play
role of basis for Armenian-Turkish dialogue, or Turkey and Armenia are
able to stand aside of this issue during discussion of their relations?
– I consider that the second 50-percent probability has in view such
variant. According to this variant, Ankara opens the borders and
instead of this doesn’t get any guarantee from Armenia toward its
partner and ally Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is not only the Turkey’s
strategic partner, but its ally also and it was stated for many
times in highest political level in Turkey. It is not difficult to
understand that this variant will worsen the Turkish-Azerbaijani
relations enough. It is out of interest of Turkey, which intends to
play role of moderator in the South Caucasus. Therefore I am skeptical
of such variant. Turkey must take the interests of Azerbaijan and
all parts in the South Caucasus into consideration.
-What of variant is close to Turkey in current phase?
– Turkey has any plan and it is possible that this plan was already
agreed with the Barack Obama’s administration. It seems, according
to this plan, the opening of the borders is reviewing as first step
toward forming of new realities for the security in the South Caucasus,
including solution to Nagorno Karabakh conflict. What is the guarantee
of this plan? Have Ankara, Washington, even Moscow a guarantee for
this plan? The question is about the guarantee for realization of
promises given to the parts.
-If Armenia doesn’t fulfill its duties taken according to this plan,
it will be never late to close the borders.
– Principally, it is so. But it will be short diplomatic views to
violate the agreement or to fulfill it not fully. No one wants to
risk in this situation and all contradictory signals from Ankara,
Yerevan, from the parts of negotiations are arisen from that. It is
some test for Barack Obama.
-US President Barack Obama noted in his address to Turkish parliament
that the actions should be made toward opening of borders and solution
to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. What do you think, is there relation
between the opening of borders and Nagorno karabakh issue?
-Absolutely. It is one of the plans, rather a part of the plan proposed
by Obama to Ankara and accepted probably with understanding. Otherwise
this position wouldn’t be publicized. Obama is an American leader
welcomed by the international community and he listens his partners
and allies. If this issue was not agreed previously, US President
wouldn’t publicize it.
-Do you mean seven regions around Nagorno Karabakh occupied by Armenia
speaking about the regions to be returned to Azerbaijan?
– Yes, you are absolutely right. There is very important issue,
what regions are mentioned in the plan. There are some regions with
military strategic importance, which gives some superiority during
the conflict in Nagorno Karabakh. There is a question what regions
will be liberated concretely. It needs to think about this issue
seriously. I think, even the most optimistic scenario will offer no
concrete decision, but any declaration or protocol of understanding
because the process of specification or agreement will take long time.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress