ANKARA-YEREVAN RAPPROCHEMENT STRAINS TURKEY’S RELATIONS WITH AZERBAIJAN
By: Emrullah Uslu

Jamestown Foundation
April 9 2009

Rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia has been fast tracked as
diplomats intensified their work in the past two months on possible
ways of addressing the issue (EDM, February 10, March 27). Ankara
and Yerevan now appear poised to find a solution to their bilateral
problems. However, Azerbaijan’s leadership is dissatisfied by
the prospect of any rapid improvement in Turkey’s relations with
Armenia. On April 2 Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov
said, "If the border is opened before Armenian troops withdraw from the
occupied territories of Azerbaijan, it will run counter to Azerbaijan’s
national interests. We have conveyed this opinion to the Turkish
leadership" (Hurriyet Daily News, April 2). Azerbaijan’s President
Ilham Aliyev played the energy card and warned: "before finding a way
to solve the Karabakh problem, if Turkey cuts a deal with Armenia we
could cut off the natural gas flow to Turkey" (Referans, April 2).

Azerbaijan and Russia’s Gazprom recently signed a "memorandum of
understanding" on long term cooperation on natural gas investment
(Referans, April 2). This development was considered as a critical
move from Azerbaijan, since it is one of the supplier countries in
the troubled Nabucco pipeline project. In addition, President Aliyev
declined an invitation from President Abdullah Gul to attend the
United Nations Alliance of Civilizations UNAOC forum in Istanbul,
preferring instead to send his daughter to represent the country,
conveying his discomfort over Turkish-Armenian reconciliation (EDM,
April 8).

Turkish opposition parties and pressure groups have also raised
objections against the possible re-opening of the Turkish-Armenian
border. The leaders of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP)
and Nationalist Action Party (MHP) have criticized the government’s
rapprochement policies (CNNTurk, April 7). Moreover, the Federation of
Turkish-Azerbaijani Circles (FTAC) sent letters to Turkish President
Gul and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan expressing their concern. In
its letter to Erdogan the FTAC asserted that "no Turk would want to
see Turkey opening its border with Armenia unless Armenia withdraws
its troops from Azerbaijani land" (CNNTurk, April 5). In addition,
new internet forums have been set up to help organize protests
against the Turkish government’s policy of rapprochement with Armenia
(Zaman, April 9). Public protests, although currently small-scale,
have also begun in the cities of Kars, Gaziantep, Igdir and Amasya
showing popular discomfort surrounding Turkey’s reconciliation policy
(, April 9).

While Azerbaijan and the Turkish opposition parties have objected to
Turkey-Armenian reconciliation before resolving the Karabakh problem,
the U.S. has encouraged Ankara to press ahead. President Barack Obama
during his recent visit to Turkey underlined the U.S. position:

We have already seen historic and courageous steps taken by Turkish and
Armenian leaders. These contacts hold out the promise of a new day. An
open border would return the Turkish and Armenian people to a peaceful
and prosperous coexistence that would serve both of your nations. That
is why the United States strongly supports the full normalization of
relations between Turkey and Armenia (Today’s Zaman, April 7).

It seems the Turkish government appreciates the difficulties in
opening the border prior to satisfying Azerbaijan’s concerns. Obama
has recognized Baku’s sensitivities on the issue and directly involved
himself in the process of explaining Washington’s position. After his
visit to Turkey, Obama held telephone conversations with Azerbaijan’s
president Aliyev about his support for Turkish-Armenian efforts to
normalize relations (CNN Turk, April 8).

Nonetheless, Ankara is optimistic about improving its relations with
Yerevan, despite these objections. Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman,
Burak Ozugergin, stated that "the developments on the talks between
Ankara and Yerevan are promising and we are happy about that" (CNN
Turk, April 5). As a sign of progress, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry has
now changed the conditions for reconciliation that were previously
posted on its website. These were: 1) Armenia should officially
recognize the existing border between Turkey and Armenia, 2) Armenia
rescinds its claim about Armenian "genocide" and 3) Armenia must
end its invasion of Azerbaijan’s territory. In late March however,
the Foreign Ministry altered its website (Haberturk, April 9). The
Turkish language section contains a statement that "ill-disposed
policies pursued by Yerevan towards its neighbors have discouraged
Turkey to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia." However, the
English version adds: "Armenia continues to disregard the UN Security
Council Resolutions Numbers 822, 853, 874, and 884, disrespecting the
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan by occupying over 20 percent of
Azerbaijani territory" (, April 9).

These factors indicate that Ankara has been pursuing a carefully
calculated foreign policy changes. Therefore, it is expected that the
Turkey-Armenia rapprochement will be gradual in order to ensure its
steady progress. Reportedly the border between Armenia and Turkey
will open incrementally. According to this plan, it will be opened
initially as a purely symbolic gesture and will only open once each
week. In the meantime, diplomatic relations will commence with both
parties declaring their intention to open embassies in Ankara and
Yerevan. In addition, the plan refers to the Karabakh problem and
requests that Armenia withdraws its troops from the five provinces
of Karabakh it currently occupies (Sabah, April 9).