Friday, April 10, 2009
EURASIA INSIGHT

AZERBAIJAN: RUSSIAN 2008 BLITZ AGAINST GEORGIA ERODED ARDOR FOR NATO
AND EU IN BAKU – EXPERT

4/09/09

The Georgia-Russia war last August has rendered Azerbaijan more wary
of Russia and less likely to start a military conflict over the
disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, according to a
government-affiliated analyst. The Russian military’s performance in
Georgia has also prompted a shift in public attitudes in Azerbaijan
about the benefits of NATO cooperation, the expert added.

Baku was thrust into a difficult situation by the August war because
public opinion and government policy were at odds, said Anar Valiyev,
an analyst with the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Public opinion in
Azerbaijan was strongly on the side of the Georgians, because people
felt that Georgia’s struggle to recover its lost territories of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia is similar to Azerbaijan’s attempt to regain
Karabakh, Valiyev said. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].

However, the government in Baku was disinclined to publicly support
Georgia in the conflict because of a fear of angering Russia, Valiyev
said. "If it was up to the government, the government wouldn’t do
anything. But the pressure from the people, from the public forced the
government to say something concerning the Georgia crisis, that they
support territorial integrity," he said.

Valiyev spoke April 6 at a conference in Washington, DC, in a panel
called "Internal Political Shifts in Azerbaijan and Ukraine in the
Wake of the War."

The war’s outcome — which left Russian troops on Georgian soil and
prompted Moscow to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia — affected how the public sees Azerbaijan’s geopolitical
orientation. "The war significantly changed perceptions in Azerbaijan
of Russia and the United States," Valiyev said. In particular, support
for NATO has dropped.

In 2007, 58 percent of Azerbaijani citizens supported NATO membership,
35 percent were neutral and 6 percent opposed joining the alliance,
according to public opinion data from the Caucasus Research Resource
Center. After the war, only 48 percent supported NATO membership and
44 percent were neutral. (A similar effect was seen in Armenia, while
in Georgia support for NATO membership did not significantly change,
according to the CRRC data.) Similarly, faith in international
institutions like the United Nations and European Union also dropped
noticeably after the Georgia-Russia war.

A large part of the reason for that shift is fear of Russia, Valiyev
maintained. Most analysts in Baku interpreted the conflict as "a war
of ideologies," he added. "Because Georgia and Ukraine have ‘orange’
or ‘unmanaged’ democracies, that goes against the interests of the
Russian government and that was the main reason for the Russian
government to start this conflict [in Georgia]."

The outcome of the Russian-Georgian fighting produced no significant
changes in attitude among Azerbaijani political institutions or
parties because the opposition in Baku is so marginalized, Valiyev
said. But within the government, the position of those who prefer
economic tools to military methods as the primary means for recovering
Karabakh gained the upper hand in internal policy debates, he said.

"If Georgia had succeeded to bring back South Ossetia and Abkhazia
back to its own sovereign territory, Azerbaijan would have a really
strong case to put forward before the international community on the
Karabakh issue," Valiyev said. "Unfortunately, the defeat of the
Georgians in South Ossetia disheartened many people in Azerbaijan. And
it also helped to tone down the voices of the ‘war hawks,’ who were
hoping that a Georgian victory would help them to strengthen their
position inside the Azerbaijan government."

"The war brought back the old fear that the Russians are coming back.
And people started to believe that we won’t be able to solve the
Karabakh conflict without Russian involvement, so we have to take into
consideration Russian involvement," he added. "What would happen if
Russia got involved in the conflict? Would we have enough forces to
fight Karabakh, the Russians and the Armenians all together? So the
perception has changed, people are becoming more cautious."

This has been seen, for example, in the declining influence of GUAM,
the alliance of pro-western post-Soviet states Georgia, Ukraine,
Azerbaijan and Moldova. Without a large power supporting GUAM,
Azerbaijan is disinclined to become closely involved in the
organization. "It’s a fear of the Russians," Valiyev said.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress