OPPOSITION’S HOPE
by Ike Janpoladjan

WPS Agency
What the Papers Say (Russia)
April 9, 2009 Thursday
Russia

ELECTION OF MAYOR OF YEREVAN, ARMENIA, WILL BE A POLITICAL BATTLE OF
THE FIRST MAGNITUDE; Armenia is on the threshold of fierce political
wars.

Political tranquility in Armenia was shattered by the opposition whose
leader Levon Ter-Petrosjan (the first president of sovereign Armenia)
decided to run for the Council of Elders and mayor of Yerevan. The
voting is scheduled for May 31. Corridors of power in Yerevan avidly
discuss the recent disturbances in Moldova where the mayor of the
capital city was identified as one of the organizers of protests. Even
these speculations aside, however, what has always been a routine in
Armenia is now anything but. Armenia faces the prospect of vicious
political wars.

Seven political forces will run for the Council of Elders. Four of them
represent the ruling coalition – Republican Party, Prosperous Armenia,
Armenian Revolutionary Front Dashnaktsutjun, and Orinats Yerkir (or
Land of Law). A couple of small organizations nominated candidates
too, and so did the Armenian National Congress, a conglomerate of 18
political parties led by Ter-Petrosjan.

One has to know Yerevan to understand what the whole fuss is about. It
so happens that nearly 50% of the population of Armenia lives in
Yerevan. Practically all of the political, financial and economic,
academic and educational, cultural, and intellectual potential of
the republic is to be found within Yerevan’s city limits. In other
words, Yerevan is essentially a state within the state. Should the
Republican Party (the ruling party) win the election in Yerevan, its
positions will be rock-solid even for the next nationwide election. The
Republican Party nominated incumbent Mayor Gagik Beglarjan for another
term of office.

Victory of the opposition on the other hand will put into motion some
serious and far-reaching processes. The Armenian National Congress
all but admits that election of the mayor of Yerevan will be but "an
instrumental phase of restoration of the constitutional regime". The
opposition means business as may be judged from the words of Congress
Coordinator Levon Zurabjan that "… election of the mayor of Yerevan
will become the second round of the presidential election" (that took
place in February 2008).

"Once victory is ours, we will serve the authorities the schedule
of their resignations," Zurabjan said. Chances of the opposition are
estimated as fine. Leader of the party that polled 40% plus one vote
automatically becomes the mayor of Yerevan. Even by official estimates
of the presidential election last year (whose outcome the opposition
questions), the opposition polled 43% throughout the country and
48.2% in Yerevan. Dispersing the opposition rally last March, the
authorities bagged, tried, and convicted literally hundreds activists
of independent movement. All of that couldn’t help earning the Armenian
National Congress sympathies of the population. The latest developments
– devaluation of the national monetary unit and price-rise – delivered
a serious blow at the image of the regime and society’s trust in it.

Sociometer Center Director Agaron Adibekjan kept telling everyone
within earshot in 2008 that there was absolutely no chance for
Ter-Petrosjan to poll above 4-6% votes (he polled 22%). Adibekjan
changed his tune now. "If the first president plays it real smart, he
may poll more than 35% in election of the Council of Elders," he said.