-dangerous-shift/
The Washington Times
COHEN: Turkey’s dangerous shift
But Obama blithely takes no notice of Europe’s concern
By Ariel Cohen | Friday, April 10, 2009
COMMENTARY:
After attending three summits – of the Group of 20 richest countries,
NATO and the European Union – President Obama ended his European trip
in Turkey. His messages there highlight the importance Washington
attaches to this regional player bridging Europe and Asia, a veteran
NATO ally, and an influential Muslim country.
In his speeches, Mr. Obama emphasized that Turkey is a Muslim nation
that respects democracy, the rule of law and is founded on a set of
modern principles. In view of the Islamist Justice and Development
Party’s (AKP) stranglehold on power, this may be an overstretch.
Mr. Obama also voiced support for Turkey’s membership in the EU. This
did not endear him to many Europeans, especially French President
Nicolas Sarkozy, who rebuked the idea. Absent from these speeches was
any mention of recent trends that have raised legitimate questions
over Turkish leadership’s commitment to secular democracy, as well as
its trajectory toward the West in general and NATO in particular.
Until the AKP rose to power in 2002, a secular Turkey founded by
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire after World
War I was considered a reliable U.S. partner that aspired for EU
membership. Today, however, the AKP appears to be moving Turkey away
from its pro-Western and pro-American orientation to a more Middle
Eastern and Islamist one.
Turkish secular elites are worried about their country’s direction.
They argue that the AKP promotes a creeping Islamic agenda – one close
to Muslim Brotherhood’s fundamentalism.
While the AKP has enjoyed popular support since it came to power, for
the first time since 2002 it lost support in the local elections. The
global economic crisis is in part responsible, but voters are
disappointed that AKP has strayed from its promises of a more liberal
Turkey in the EU. Prominent supporters of democracy are concerned that
the right of dissent, tolerance and government accountability are
being eroded.
In foreign policy, there are important signs that Turkey is drifting
away from the West. In 2006, Turkey became the first NATO member to
host the leader of Hamas, Khaled Mashaal. Turkey also enthusiastically
hosted Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Sudanese President
Omar al-Bashir, whose government has been accused of genocide.
Turkey’s geography justifies its relations with Iran, but not with
Hamas or Sudan; only Islamist solidarity and anti-Western sentiment
can explain these ties.
Although Turkey has been trying to facilitate an Arab-Israeli
rapprochement by sponsoring Syrian-Israeli proximity talks and several
other initiatives, it is losing its impartiality and, therefore,
credibility.
This was evident when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
spoke about Israel’s operation in Gaza and attacked the dovish Israeli
President Shimon Peres before he stormed out of a panel at the recent
Davos World Economic Forum – only to get a hero’s welcome back home.
AKP and other Islamists also sponsored a flood of anti-Israel
demonstrations, billboards and anti-Semitic rhetoric.
Turkey could potentially play a role in U.S.-Iranian negotiations.
However, Mr. Erdogan’s judgment has been called into question after he
said last year that `those who ask Iran not to produce nuclear weapons
should themselves give up their nuclear weapons first.’
Developments in Turkey’s Black Sea and Caucasus policies have also
been worrisome. During the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war, Turkey
proposed the `Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform,’ a
condominium of Russia and Turkey, together with the three South
Caucasus countries, but initially omitted the United States and EU as
well as Iran.
Turkey also temporarily blocked the transit of U.S. warships
delivering humanitarian aid to Georgia. And it prioritized
rapprochement with Russian ally Armenia over the ties with the
secular, pro-Western Azerbaijan. These developments underscore
Turkey’s cozying up to Russia, as Moscow provides nearly two-thirds of
its gas supplies.
Turkey is critical to Europe’s efforts to reduce its dependence on
Russian energy, including the proposed Nabucco gas pipeline that would
bring Caspian Basin gas to Europe, bypassing Russia. However, Turkey
is currently stalling a critical intergovernmental agreement on the
Nabucco pipeline. Thus, Turkey is throwing away a decade of progress
on the East-West energy corridor.
According to Mr. Erdogan, Turkey is open to providing assistance for
the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq through Turkey. This statement
was borderline offensive in view of Turkey’s refusal to allow U.S.
troops to cross its territory into Iraq in 2003. Yet the planned
withdrawal of troops from Iraq raises the importance of the Incirlik
U.S. Air Force Base through which 70 percent of supplies to Iraq move.
Beyond this, Turkey has long-standing ties to Afghanistan and Pakistan
and continues to play a positive role in both countries.
Mr. Obama attended a meeting between Turkish and Armenian foreign
ministers, signaling U.S. support to the rapprochement between the two
old foes. Mr. Obama avoided alienating a key ally by not by using the
`G’ word (genocide) when talking about Turkish-Armenian relations. He
may face a domestic political blowback for this. Yet a strong U.S.
endorsement for the enhanced Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation is also
necessary, and hopefully forthcoming.
Despite Turkey’s movement away from the West, the country continues to
play a key role in NATO and the region. Washington should devote more
attention to U.S.-Turkish relations. Strong bilateral security
relations are particularly important for cooperation on the Iraq
withdrawal, Afghanistan, dealing with Iran, and addressing a resurgent
Russia. The administration should stress that it is in Turkey’s
long-term interests to remain politically oriented toward the West.
Ariel Cohen is senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies
and international energy security at the Heritage Foundation’s Shelby
and Katherine Cullom Davis Institute.