TURKISH PM ESTABLISHES "RED LINES" FOR ARMENIAN RECONCILIATION
by Dragana Ignjatovi

World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
April 13, 2009

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan presented his government’s
"red lines" for the reconciliation of relations with Armenia on Friday
(11 April). Erdogan has made the normalisation of relations with
Armenia contingent on Armenia resolving its conflict with Azerbaijan
over the ethnic Armenian Nagorny Karabakh region. The Prime Minster’s
remarks were prompted by reports that Turkey and Armenia would soon
sign a landmark deal allowing the opening of formal diplomatic
relations and the opening of their mutual border, which has been
closed since 1993. Reports of the looming agreement have reportedly
angered Turkey’s close ally Azerbaijan, which has insisted that any
deal should be contingent on Armenia making concession over the Nagorny
Karabakh region, which broke away from Azerbaijan in the early 1990s.

Significance:Turkey’s relations with Armenia have improved considerably
in recent years, with an agreement on the opening of border relations
set to be the first formalisation of the progress made. Erdogan’s
statements making rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia contingent
on a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is in line with
the Turkish government’s previous position, and was largely done to
appease Azeri concerns. Azerbaijan is worried that the opening of
the Armenian-Turkish border will cause it to lose leverage in the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Furthermore, even if the border between
Turkey and Armenia were to be opened, the deeper issue of Armenia’s
international campaign to have the series of killings of Armenians
recognised as genocide has still not been addressed. In fact, it
remains the single most significant obstacle to the bettering of
relations between the two countries–a reality that is unlikely to
shift even if the border is opened. The myriad of issues clouding
relations between the three countries is likely to make any settlement
difficult to negotiate. Regardless, Turkey appears to be committed
to making progress in its relations with Armenia, while at the same
time strengthening existing allegiances with Azerbaijan.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress