WILL THERE BE ROSE II IN GEORGIA?

cafebabel.com
http://arirusila.cafebabel .com/en/post/2009/04/15/Will-there-be-Rose-II-in-G eorgia
April 15 2009
France

Demonstrations against President Mikhail Saakashvili continued
fifth day on April 13th in Georgia. Consolidated opposition demands
president’s resignation, early presidential and parliamentary elections
being held in the spring 2009.So far the participation to protests
is not enough to implement Rose Revolution II but two new regional
questions have potential to develop conflicts and change political
geography once again.

Critics accuse Mr Saakashvili, who came to power on the back of the
2003 Rose Revolution, of monopolising power and exerting pressure on
the judiciary and the media. Last year’s war, when Russia crushed a
Georgian assault on breakaway South Ossetia and caused also separation
of other breakaway province – Abkhazia are added to his other crucial
mistakes.

During previous demonstration in 2007, Saakashvili deployed
the military and successfully — though violently — crushed the
protests. But that demonstration consisted of 15,000 protesters.Now
the first time all 17 opposition parties have consolidated enough to
organize a mass movement in the country. Furthermore, many members of
the government – who were leading also Rose I – are joining the cause.

Demonstrations

Some 60,000 people turned out on Thursday for the first day of
demonstrations – but far fewer were visible on Friday. About 10,000
people protested Saturday 11.4.2009 in three locations: in front of
parliament, outside Saakashvili’s residence and at the headquarters
of the main state television channel, where they called for the
demonstrations to be broadcast live.

The Georgian opposition reversed its previous decision to hold a break
for Palm Sunday and resume protests on Monday after the opposition’s
press center, set up in front of the Georgian parliament’s building,
was attacked by unidentified assailants on the night of April
11-12. Opposition leaders said a 50-strong mob had attacked the venue,
tearing banners and ripping out computer cables at a stage set up
outside parliament as dozens of protesters prepared to spend a third
night on the street. Police, however, said protesters had set on street
cleaners who arrived to clear the site of litter. (Source Newsdaily)

Georgia’s political opposition will erect fake jail cells at sites
across Tbilisi to symbolize the country turning into a police state
and to symbolise imprisoned democracy.

Adjara and Samtskhe-Javakheti

There is also concern that protests are planned in the Georgian
secessionist region of Adjara, which rose up against and rejected
Saakashvili’s government in 2004 after the Rose Revolution. This
region was suppressed by Saakashvili once and has held a grudge
ever since, looking for the perfect time to rise up again. Tbilisi
especially wants to keep Adjara under its control because it is home
to the large port of Batumi, and many of Georgia’s transport routes
to Turkey run through it.

Thousands of protesters gathered in Batumi 9th April with demand
president’s resignation. Movement for "Fair Georgia" representative
said they will hold similar rallies on May 6 if the president refuses
to resign.

Adjara region If Adjara rises up, there are rumors in the region that
its neighboring secessionist region, Samtskhe-Javakheti, will join in
to help destabilize Saakashvili and the government. Georgia already
officially lost its two northern secessionist regions of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia to Russian occupation during the August 2008 war
and is highly concerned with its southern regions trying to break away.

In Samtskhe-Javakheti, an isolated, predominantly ethnic Armenian
region in the country’s south there is a risk that socio-economic
problems may turn into ethnic problems.The financial decline, crisis
in central government and ethnic question makes the region a potential
conflict region.

Hot early summer starting

Georgia is living now crucial moments if there will be Rose Revolution
II or not. My point of view is that three aspects will show the
direction:

First if opposition can get more supporters on the streets, President
can manage today’s demonstrations, but if there is over 100,000
protesters this could be enough for revolution.

Second aspect is if there will be enough support for change outside
Tbilisi and especially if the two secessionist regions see opportunity
now implement wide autonomy.

Third aspect is the response of present government and President,
violence can develop situation worse at least mid term, negotiations
and concessions can divide opposition.

Georgia is not isolated state in Europe, it is only one flashpoint
in northern Black Sea region.In Moldova some activities started last
week, in Ukraine triangle drama between two governing parties and
opposition is erupting anytime soon boosted next gas bill and rising
ethnic tensions. Neighbour Balkans has its own tensions and the big
game about energy and sphere of influence is going on between U.S.,
EU and Russia. Anyway that part of world can be a little bit different
after this year.