ARMENIA: TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER’S VISIT RESOLVES NO QUESTIONS
Marianna Grigoryan

Eurasianet

April 17, 2009

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan’s trip to Yerevan may have been
brief, with little publicity, but it has nonetheless further fueled
Armenia’s ongoing debate about mending ties with Turkey.

Arriving at Yerevan’s airport on April 16 for a meeting of the
Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation, Babacan told CNN-Turk
only that "[w]e want a comprehensive solution and full normalization
of relations." Negotiations with Armenia will proceed "in parallel"
to talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan about the disputed
Nagorno-Karabakh territory, he said. He refrained from further comment.

Nonetheless, to judge by his interlocutors, the issue of a
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement remained front and center for Babacan’s
meetings. During his one-day trip, the Turkish foreign minister
met with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, Foreign Minister Eduard
Nalbandian and held separate talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov and Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Mahmud Mamadguliyev
at the conference.

Sargsyan’s press office stated only that the president and Babacan
discussed "questions regarding the settlement of Armenian-Turkish
relations."

Yet despite the recent uptick in bilateral contacts, some Yerevan
analysts are skeptical that an actual deal will come about. While
Armenia has not linked a reconciliation deal to any other issue,
Ankara has made plain that it expects such an agreement to move in
tandem with a resolution to Armenia’s Nagorno-Karabakh dispute with
Azerbaijan, a close Turkish ally.

At an April 8 meeting with journalists, Turkish Prime Minister Recip
Tayip Erdogan expressed hope that the United Nations Security Council
would recognize that Armenia had occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, and call
on Armenia to withdraw its troops from the territory.

"The settlement of problems between Turkey and Armenia is possible
after first solving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict," Hurriyet
newspaper reported Erdogan as saying.

Political analyst Sergei Shakariants argues that those terms imply
that the Armenian-Turkish honeymoon is coming to an end, "if it has
not already done so."

"Anyone willing to improve ties with a neighbor will start the dialogue
without preconditions," Shakariants said. "If Turkey gets into it,
but brings preconditions at the last minute, it means it has never
been willing to negotiate."

Opposition Heritage Party parliamentarian Stepan Safarian believes that
opening the Armenian-Turkish border in the near future is impossible
given Turkey’s recent remarks.

"[I]f Turkey, which itself faces the issues of Cyprus, the Armenian
genocide and [disputed] territories, puts forward conditions to
Armenia in favor of another country, Azerbaijan, this means that
Armenian diplomacy has made serious strategic, diplomatic and tactical
mistakes," Safarian argued.

During an April 14 meeting with Tehran’s ethnic Armenian community,
Sargsyan, a native of Nagorno-Karabakh, affirmed that the disputed
territory would not be given to Azerbaijan under any circumstances.

"Sometimes suppositions and forecasts or good wishes are presented as
facts. The truth is the following: We are ready to establish normal
relations with Turkey without preconditions. Turkey has not been ready
for it up to this day," Sargsyan said, according to the presidential
press office. "Today there seem to be [the right] conditions [for us]
to get out of this unacceptable situation, when two neighbors do not
even have diplomatic relations."

Parliamentarian Rafik Petrosian, a senior member of the ruling
Republican Party of Armenia, believes that recent agreements signed
with Iran will spur Turkey to take action. [For details, see the
Eurasia Insight archive].

"Turkey will definitely understand that Armenia will get other
opportunities to communicate with the outside world through Iran,
and this will accelerate the negotiation process over Armenian-Turkish
relations," said Petrosian.

Dismissing skeptics, Petrosian maintained that there has been "minor
success" to date in talks with Turkey. "If the process had not been
positive, Ali Babacan would not have come to Armenia," he concluded.

Editor’s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based
in Yerevan.