OSKANIAN, HOVANNISIAN URGE CAUTION IN TURKEY-ARMENIA DEAL

_4/18/2009_1
Friday, April 17, 2009

YEREVAN (RFE/RL)–Two former foreign ministers of Armenia remained
pessimistic on Friday about the success of the ongoing Turkish-Armenian
dialogue, urging the current authorities in Yerevan to reconsider
their diplomatic overtures to Ankara.

"I don’t anticipate the signing of a Turkish-Armenian agreement
in the near future," said Armenia’s first foreign minister, Raffi
Hovannisian. He was particularly worried about Erdogan’s calls for
the UN Security Council to denounce Armenia as an "occupier" and
demand Karabakh’s return under Azerbaijani rule.

Vartan Oskanian, who served as foreign minister from 1998-2008,
likewise suggested that the Turks have no intention to cut an
unconditional deal with Armenia and are instead trying to exploit the
talks to keep the United States and other countries from recognizing
the 1915 massacres of Armenians as genocide. He said they could also
be pressing international mediators to seek more Armenian concessions
on Karabakh in return for an open border with Turkey.

The former minister, who founded last year a private think-tank,
the Civilitas Foundation, spoke to journalists before an official
presentation of a newly published book containing speeches delivered
by him throughout his decade-long tenure.

"When you make a Turkish-Armenian dialogue public, the Turks always
take advantage of that because they face the genocide issue, the
issue of European Union membership and the issue of friendship with
Azerbaijan," Oskanian told a news conference. "So publicity here, if
we let it last for long, is not to our benefit. With every day passing
without border opening or normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations,
Turkey finds itself in a more beneficial position than Armenia.

"The moment that the border is opened, we too will start to draw
dividends. The question is when that will happen."

"The Armenian side should set a clear deadline for the Turks — if
we sign an agreement and the border is opened on a particular day,
it will be fine; if not, let us interrupt the negotiations from that
day. Something has to be done," added Oskanian.

Oskanian also seemed puzzled by President Sarkisian’s assurances that
Armenia will "emerge stronger" from the U.S.-backed talks even if they
end in failure. "I hope that there is something that the president
knows that we don’t know," he said.

A top U.S. official, meanwhile, visited Armenia in what may have
been an attempt to salvage the faltering talks between the two
neighboring nations. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew
Bryza met with President Serzh Sarkisian and Foreign Minister Eduard
Nalbandian. Official Armenian sources gave no details of the talks,
and Bryza was not available for comment.

The diplomat, who is also the U.S. co-chair of the OSCE Minsk
Group, arrived in Yerevan from Baku where he met Azerbaijani
Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov. Washington has been trying
to neutralize Azerbaijan’s strong resistance to the normalization
of Turkish-Armenian relations before a peaceful settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. U.S. President Barack Obama personally
discussed the matter with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev,
in a phone call last week.

The vehement Azerbaijani protests led Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan to publicly state earlier this month that Turkey will
not establish diplomatic relations and open its border with Armenia
without a Karabakh settlement. Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan
appeared to echo that linkage as he flew to Yerevan on Wednesday night.

"We don’t say, ‘Let’s first solve one problem and solve the other
later,’" Babacan was reported to tell Turkish journalists. "We want
a similar process to start between Azerbaijan and Armenia. We are
closely watching the talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia."

Nalbandian insisted on Thursday, however, that Ankara and Yerevan
could still hammer out a ground-breaking agreement "soon." Two of his
predecessors are far more pessimistic on that score, pointing to the
statements made by Erdogan.