Armenian dram to fall VS us dollar by end-Q2

YEREVAN, April 18. /ARKA/. The Armenian dram (AMD) vs. US dollar (USD)
rate is expected to total 353 drams per $1 by end-Q2, Cascade
Investments says in its March review of local market.

According to the source, the AMD vs. USD rate is expected to range from
345 drams to 348 drams per $1 between Q3 and Q4.

A shift towards a floating exchange rate put the dram within the range
of AMD 360- 375 for 1 dollar throughout the whole month, Cascade
Investments says.

The pros and cons of this shift have been still debated, however one
thing is clear – the new established rate has put under the ringer the
import conditions and resulted in hoisting prices for consumers’ goods.
Meanwhile, in February, the volume of the dram in circulation shrank
17% compared to January. This may result in abrupt changes of the rate
in case the increased demand for the dram, the specialists of Cascade
Investments say.

According to their forecasts, the AMD vs. USD rate is expected to range
from 350 drams to 355 drams per $1 between Q1 and Q2 2010.

On March 3, the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) officially returned to
the floating national currency exchange rate. According to CBA experts,
the Armenian dram /U.S. dollar exchange rate is expected to range from
AMD 360 to AMD 380 per $1.

From March 4 to April 18, AMD/USD rate showed no drastic ups and downs,

with the lowest and highest levels being recorded on March 9 (359.37
drams per $1) and April 16 (375.92 drams per $1) respectively.

On April 18, the Armenian dram dropped 0.68pct against the US dollar to
372.84 drams per $1. Z. Sh. `0–