AZERBAIJAN: IS BAKU OFFERING A NATURAL GAS CARROT TO MOSCOW FOR HELP WITH KARABAKH?
Shahin Abbasov

Eurasianet
April 20, 2009

As talk of a potential Nagorno-Karabakh deal gains momentum, Azerbaijan
appears to be making serious overtures toward Russia in hopes that
the Kremlin will push Armenia to make key concessions, analysts in
Baku believe. As an incentive, Azerbaijan is playing one of its most
strategic cards – cooperation in the natural gas sector.

During a joint press conference with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev
on April 17, Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev stated that he does
"not see any restriction" on possible sales of Azerbaijani gas to
Russia. The assertion has been understood to include sales of gas from
Stage 2 of the multilateral Shah Deniz project, which is expected to
yield 14-16 billion cubic meters of gas per year. He also indicated
that oil transportation via the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline could also
increase. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Baku had earlier avoided making any commitments about gas sales to
Russia or the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline.

President Medvedev, in turn, stated that the chances for reaching "a
full-fledged" agreement on gas sales between Gazprom and the State
Oil Company of the Azerbaijani Republic (SOCAR) are high. A recent
agreement envisages the sale of gas produced by SOCAR alone. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In a separate statement on April 17, the last day of Aliyev’s
two-day visit to Moscow, Novruz Mammadov, head of the presidential
administration’s Foreign Policy Department, elaborated more
definitively. Gas sales to Russia or to Iran could be an alternative to
the Western-backed Nabucco project, he told the Turan news agency. "If
countries interested in Nabucco do not move, Azerbaijan has no option
but to think about its interests," Mammadov said.

One Baku expert, however, states that Azerbaijan’s energy-sector
promises were not solely intended to spur Nabucco’s sponsors into
action.

Elhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas Center for Political Research,
believes that Aliyev may have received some assurances in Moscow
about the potential withdrawal of Armenian forces from the five
regions surrounding Karabakh. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. "Roughly speaking, in exchange for guarantees of gas supplies
to Russia, Moscow could put pressure on Armenia in order to liberate
the five occupied regions, i.e. to launch the step-by-step conflict
resolution plan," Shahinoglu said. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].

Shahinoglu believes that such a development could be advantageous
not only to Baku and Moscow, but also to Ankara and Yerevan. "Russia
gets gas, Azerbaijan gets the territories, Armenia opens its border
with Turkey. Ankara also gets progress in resolution of the Karabakh
conflict, which allows it to normalize relations with Armenia without
problems with Azerbaijan," the expert said. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive].

In an April 18 interview with the Russian television channel Vesti,
Aliyev indicated readiness to make one serious concession to Yerevan –
signaling that Baku might be willing to live with a final settlement
in which the Lachin corridor that links Karabakh proper to Armenia
remains under Armenian control. "[W]e do not see problems here," Aliyev
said. "The issues with the Lachin corridor could be effectively solved
in order to not cause anxiety for those who live in Nagorno-Karabakh
and for the Azerbaijani population which will return there after the
conflict’s resolution."

But Rauf Mirkadirov, political columnist for the Russian-language
daily Zerkalo (Mirror), believes that "it is difficult to talk about
real progress even after Aliyev’s visit to Moscow."

While interest from the United States and the European Union in
resolving the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and establishing a corridor
for gas from Central Asia to Europe may goad Moscow’s interests in
brokering a conflict resolution, the terms may prove unpalatable for
both Armenia and Azerbaijan, Mirkadirov said.

"Moscow wants a resolution under its full control — in other words,
with its peacekeepers in the conflict zone — while Azerbaijan and
even Armenia are not ready for that," he said.

Former presidential foreign police aide Vafa Guluzade also believes
that the chances for progress are slim. Without clarity on the ultimate
question — Karabakh’s final status – statements by Aliyev, Medvedev
and others "are just diplomatic words," Guluzade argued.

Nonetheless, those "words" show little sign of slacking off.

In an April 17 interview with the Voice of America, US Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza
stated that Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan are now
examining "painful compromises" that have to be made before a
breakthrough can occur. Nonetheless, Bryza, a noted optimist in
the Karabakh peace process, believes that a "real" breakthrough is
possible in the coming weeks.

In an April 20 interview published by the Trend news agency, the
presidential administration’s Mammadov stated that if Armenia "defines
its position" at an expected May 7 meeting in Prague between Aliyev
and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, "a decision will be adopted."

Mammadov called on Moscow, which will be hosting an official visit by
Sargsyan in late April, to "fulfill its historic mission" to resolve
the 21-year conflict.

According to Bryza, a special meeting of the US, French and Russian
presidents on the Karabakh issue is possible this summer.

Editor’s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent
based in Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society
Institute-Azerbaijan.