DEVELOPMENTS IN AND ROUND IRAN
Sevak Sarukhanyan
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20 April 2009
The recent political and international developments in and round
Iran are mainly connected with two important factors. Those factors
are the forthcoming elections and the new US Administration’s policy
towards Iran, which is still at the stage of the formation. At the
same time some developments can be observed in the line of "nuclear
problem", especially, taking into the account the resumption of the
talks between Iran and "the six".
Presidential elections
The statement of the former prime-minister M.Mousavi that he was going
to take part in the presidential elections can be regarded as the
main news in domestic policy of Iran in March. The ex-president of
Iran M.Khatami kept his word and after the nomination of M.Mousavi,
withdrew from the further struggle and he is going to support the
candidature of the former prime-minister.
It is difficult to predict how the electoral campaign in Iran will
proceed and who will get the support of the majority. M.Mousavi
is a political figure who mainly stays in the shadow and he is not
well-known within the Iranian society, which mainly consists of the
youth. But the history shows that in 1997 M.Khatami won the elections
when he was under the similar conditions.
In contemporary Iran, which goes through difficult political and
economic developments, the appearance of such a new, but at the same
time rather experienced political figure as M. Mousavi may obtain
the support of the society. M. Mousavi, who was the prime-minister
of Iran during the war between Iran and Iraq and the "victorious
march" of Islamic revolution and who now represents the camp of the
so called "reformers", can take the place in the "centre" of the
Iranian political field.
The "reformers-conservatives" two-polar political struggle model
do not have the topicality in Iran it had ten or even five years
ago. M.Khatami and M.Ahmadinejad, the representatives of different
camps, in spite of some success they had during their rule, lost the
credit of the people during the last years of their presidency.
>>From this point of view, M. Mousavi, who is between the old and the
new, may seem rather attractive and reliable for the Iranians. It is
characteristic that almost all the Iranian political forces responded
positively to the decision of the former prime-minister to take part in
the forthcoming presidential elections. At the same time the dialogue
between Iran and the US may greatly influence the elections.
Iran and the US
Almost all the international mass media touched on the video-message of
the president of the US B. Obama to the Iranian people in connection
with Nowruz, which was mainly regarded as a step to boost the Iran-US
dialogue. At the same time the statements made by the president of the
US, during meeting of the "G20" and with the president of Russia that
the National Missile Defence is created to prevent the supposed attack
of Iran and North Korea, evidence that the dialogue, nevertheless, goes
in the ambiguous way. One may suppose that as against the negotiations
between Iran and the US regarding Iraqi problem, that took place in
Bagdad, today the matter of the negotiations and the dialogue is more
global and strategic, and Israeli party, directly or indirectly, is
also included in the process of the negotiations. This can be evidenced
by rather "peaceful" felicitation of the president of Israel Sh. Peres
to Iranian people in connection with Nowruz. He expressed hope for the
improvement of the relations between the Iranians and the Israelis. At
the same time on March 29 Lebanese "Al-Lava" newspaper issued the
information that during recent days the secret Iranian-American
negotiations on the regulation of state-to-state relations took place
on the territory of American and later Iranian embassies.
The choice of Beirut and not Bagdad or Islamabad was conditioned
arguably by the existence of Arab-Israeli problem as one of the main
topics of the negotiations.
On April 8 the president of Iran M.Ahmadinejad announced in Esfahan
that Iran "will of course shake the offered hand", meaning the
congratulations and the words of B. Obama. But he also mentioned that
if it was not sincere B. Obama would get the same response as G. Bush.
In the US the developments round Iran are rather interesting too. The
statement of the vice-president of the US J. Biden made on April 7 that
he did not believe that the new prime-minister of Israel B. Netanyahu
would order to deliver an air thrust on the nuclear infrastructure
of Iran and otherwise he would be "ill advised". This may be regarded
as the first statement of American authorities, on such a high level,
which excludes and condemns the military actions against Iran.
But, in spite of this statement by J. Biden, in the American
State Department the resignation of "pro-Iranian" employees can be
seen. According to the orders of the US special envoy for Afghanistan
and Pakistan R.
Holbrooke, and the special envoy for the Persian Gulf D. Ross, the
officials responsible for Iran issue V.Nasr and R.Tekey were relieved
of their posts. Those two rather well-known and authoritative analysts
were adherent of the peaceful settlement of the relations with Iran
and elaborated the documents of strategic importance.
The statement by J. Biden and the staff changes within the State
Department, in all appearances, evidence that there is no finally
elaborated "Iranian policy" between the different wings of the
ruling establishment of the US. It allegedly will be formed after
the presidential election in Iran, when it becomes clear whether
M.Amadinejad will keep his post or not. And the ongoing talks create
the base for the real dialogue if there would be any.
Nuclear problem
The activation of the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear programme
is expected within the next couple of months, and this is conditioned
by the new proposal of "the six" (Russia, the USA, France, Germany,
Great Britain, China) to Iran. The package of proposals, according
to the mass media, is already ready and in the near future it will
become a matter of negotiations. Iran officially agreed to discuss
it but there is no distinct information about the essence of that
package of proposals offered by "the six".
There are a good many controversies within "the six". Russia and China
continue to stand on "pro-Iranian" stance, but the biggest surprise is
connected with the Germany. At the end of March foreign minister of
Germany F.Stainmayer introduced in parliament (Bundestag) the bill,
according to which Germany should apply sanctions against Iran in
the connection with its nuclear programme. But on April 6 all the
commissions of Bundestag made an adverse determination to the bill and
the secretary of prime-minister A. Merkel’s Christian-Democratic Union
stated that they would not allow passing such a law. The "green" also
made the similar statement and regarded the sanctions as "groundless
and dangerous".
Amid the current global crisis one can say that the pressure of the
western countries on Iran will weaken at some extent, as the sanctions,
commodity circulation reduction and the opening of oil market by
Iran on the Kish Island as a counter-measure on the sanctions and
the sell of the oil on euro can deliver another strike on the global
economy security.