RUSSIA-TURKEY WARS OF SUPREMACY IN AZERBAIJAN

Hurriyet
April 21 2009
Turkey

BAKU – Although the storm in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations has settled
following assurances from Ankara that it will not open its borders
with Yerevan before a breakthrough in Armenian-Azerbaijani issues is
made, it seems difficult for the short term to eradicate the crisis
of confidence erupted recently between Ankara and Baku.

Ankara and Yerevan came very close to a deal that would normalize
relations between the two countries but the process came to a sudden
halt following reaction from Azerbaijan, which is opposed to the
opening of the border without progress in the Nagorno Karabakh issue.

Turkey closed its borders with Armenia after the Armenian occupation
of the Azerbaijani enclave Nagorno Karabakh, as well as other regions
surrounding the enclave.

"We were not informed of the talks between Turkey and Armenia,"
Asim Mollazade said of the negotiations conducted between Turkish
and Armenian diplomats. The talks gained momentum following Turkish
President Abdullah Gul’s historic visit to Yerevan last September. "We
learned it from others," added Mollazade, the leader of the opposition
Democratic Reform Party.

The lack of confidence is not a recent factor in relations. When
the Justice and Development Party, or the AKP, came to power, Baku
hesitated to fully trust the new government in Ankara. "There was an
apprehension towards the AKP. Baku was not sure whether the Turkic
world would appear high on the agenda of the AKP. There was a suspicion
that the AKP could prioritize other issues to the detriment of
Azerbaijan," said a foreign observer, who asked not to be identified.

Although the recent statements from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
and President Gul have calmed down the administration’s anxiety, the
fact that the Turkish parliamentary group that went to Baku last week
did not include AKP parliamentarians did not go unnoticed. "Relations
with Azerbaijan should be a bipartisan issue. It should not be the
victim of discussions between the government and the opposition,"
said Mollazade, talking to Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review
right after a meeting with the visiting delegation.

Russian influence In every conversation in Baku that involves the
Caucasus, Russia is inevitably mentioned. Opponents of Russia see
the hand of Moscow in the rapprochement between the Turks and the
Armenians, as it will be detrimental to relations between Ankara
and Baku.

"Russia wants the Caucasus out of the hands of the Muslims," taxi
driver Ennagi Ismailoglu said. "Russia will never want good relations
between Turkey and Azerbaijan."

In the short term, open borders between Turkey and Armenia will
benefit Russia, especially in light of the recent war with Georgia,
as it will have better access to Armenia where it still has military
troops. Russian flights presently carrying ammunition to troops in
Armenia are flying all the way from Turkmenistan. Furthermore, it
will further isolate Georgia.

Turkey and Azerbaijan forged good relations right after Azerbaijan
declared its independence. The Azerbaijani government, under Haydar
Aliyev, the father of the current president has been careful not to
alienate the Russians. "In fact we have always advised Azerbaijanis
to go very careful with Russia, to avoid policies that might anger
Russians," said a Turkish diplomat who is familiar with the early
stages of the bilateral relations.

Ever since independence, Azerbaijan has been the scene of rivalry
between Turkey and Russia for cultural, economic and political
supremacy. Turkey has the advantage of having linguistic, religious
and ethnic affinity. The Turkish dialect spoken by the Azerbaijanis
is easily understood by Turks. But the Russians have the advantage of
having kept Azerbaijan under Soviet domination for half a century. Many
Azerbaijanis still speak Russian.

lham Aliyev, the son of Haydar Aliyev, who took over the government
following the death of his father, is still surrounded by the
members of the old Soviet cadres. "There is a pro Russian group in
the government that is leading an anti Turkish campaign," Arastun
Orujlu, president of the East-West Research Center, said. After the
advent of Ilham Aliyev, Turkish soldiers were sent back to Turkey,
claimed Orujlu. The broadcasting of Turkish soap operas, which are
very popular among the Azerbaijani public, were stopped in an effort
to avoid the influence of Turkish on the local dialect. "I see no
rational in this decision. This came us a result of Russian pressure,"
said Nesip Nesibli, of the opposition party Musavat.

Search for identity Although Turkish officials recognize the presence
of what they call "the Soviet-minded officials, who believe the center
of the world is still Moscow," there is not such a perception in Ankara
that Azerbaijan is deliberately taken steps to decrease Turkey’s
influence. "As Azerbaijani soldiers were also trained in Turkey,
they are back in Baku to provide training themselves. The Turkish
soldiers have finished their mission in Baku, it is only natural
for them to leave Azerbaijan," said one Turkish official. There is
also a relative understanding in Turkish circles for Azerbaijani
efforts to keep the local culture away from the cultural influence of
Turkey. "At one stage every kid in Azerbaijan was wearing t-shirts
of the nationalistic film ‘Valley of the Wolf." Differences emerged
in the language spoken by the grandfather and the grandson," said a
Turkish businessmen living in Baku.

No matter how the two sides’ officials perceive the cultural wars, the
fact remains that the recent developments seem to have reinforced the
suspicion on the part of the Aliyev administration toward the AKP. "The
recent events have shown to us that the motto ‘one nation two states’
has remained only rhetoric. We have not been able to substantiate it,"
said Nesibli. "The Turkish government made the mistake of conducting
talks with Yerevan without consulting Baku. Our administration,
however, made the mistake of making its discontent public, instead
of handling it through the diplomatic channels," Nesibli added,
criticizing the decision of Aliyev not to go to Turkey.

"Baku resented the fact that Turkey took them for granted," one
foreign observer said.

"What I see is the need to talk more, we need to be more in touch with
each other," Mollazade said of how to overcome the confidence crisis
between the two countries known until recently as strategic partners.