ARMENIAN-TURKISH ALLIANCE?
Dmitry Yermolayev

WPS Agency
April 20, 2009 Monday
Russia

ESTABLISHMENT OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND ARMENIA WILL
CHANGE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IN THE REGION; Armenia and Turkey are
about to establish diplomatic relations.

What information is available to Rossiiskiye Vesti indicates that
an agreement to establish diplomatic relations will be signed in the
course of Turkish Foreign Minister Ala Babacan to Yerevan, Armenia, on
April 16. The agreement to do so was made during negotiations between
Babacan and his Armenian opposite number Edward Nalbandjan in Ankara on
April 7 night. It is only fair to add that US President Barack Obama
Enhanced Coverage LinkingBarack Obama -Search using: Biographies Plus
News News, Most Recent 60 Days was present at the talks.

It was Obama Enhanced Coverage LinkingObama -Search using: Biographies
Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days who impressed on Babacan and
Nalbandjan the importance of normalization of the Turkish-Armenian
relations. It was Obama Enhanced Coverage LinkingObama -Search using:
Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days who emphasized
that official Ankara could become an effective intermediary in
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. Finally, it was Obama Enhanced
Coverage LinkingObama -Search using: Biographies Plus News News,
Most Recent 60 Days who advised Yerevan to show goodwill and return
to Azerbaijan some of the least strategically important occupied
districts – in return for its withdrawal from isolation.

Babacan and Nalbandjan met the following morning tete-a-tete and
discussed details. The former mentioned that he cared little about
Baku’s reaction to the forthcoming establishment of diplomatic
relations between their two countries. Babacan even said that
"… Azerbaijan clearly aspires to the role that far exceeds its
weight and status in the region."

Experts point out that establishment of diplomatic relations between
Turkey and Armenia will dramatically alter geopolitical situation
in the region. Isolation of Armenia will be history. Even more
importantly, Armenia will have Turkey’s support in the matter of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Ankara in its turn will want at least neutrality
(but support will be better, of course) from the powerful Armenian
lobby in the matter of Turkey’s entry into the European Union.

Establishment of diplomatic relations with Turkey will enable Yerevan
to diversify its foreign policy. It does not mean of course that
Armenia will withdraw from the strategic alliance with Russia. Moscow’s
positions there are safe. All the same, Yerevan will try to develop
broader and more intensive contacts with Washington and perhaps even
start thinking about joining NATO.

Azerbaijan will took it bad of course. Instead of Nagorno-Karabakh,
it will be told to be happy with just several districts that have
always been Azerbaijani in the first place. It will probably save
President Ilham Aliyev’s image domestically but never placate official
Baku entirely. In order to sweeten the bitter pill, US diplomacy will
promise Azerbaijan more energetic contacts with NATO and the prospect
of membership in it one fine day. For the time being, however, the US
Department of State is looking for substitutes for Aliyev in Baku –
just to be on the safe side.

There is only one potential fly in the ointment. Establishment of
diplomatic relations with Turkey may foment a drastic rearrangement
of political forces in Armenia itself. Modern history of Armenia
plainly shows that it may spell trouble.