ANALYSIS-PITFALLS ON THE ROAD TO TURKISH-ARMENIAN THAW
Ibon Villelabeitia

The Seminal
leId=48512304&buyerId=theseminalcom&channe lId=11804
April 24 2009

ANKARA, April 24 (Reuters) – Turkey and Armenia’s plan to restore
relations is a diplomatic breakthrough, but a dispute over "genocide"
and Turkish unease over a backlash from Azerbaijan may still derail
a final agreement.

Ankara and Yerevan worked for months on establishing formal ties
and opening their border, agreeing a "road map" shortly before
U.S. President Barack Obama was to make a statement on Friday on mass
killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915.

The deal gives Obama time to hold off on a U.S. Congress resolution
describing the killings as genocide. But analysts warn nothing has
been signed and many pitfalls lie ahead, including one of the last
frozen conflicts in Europe — over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.

"It is a road map and because it is a road map there could be road
accidents," Faruk Logoglu, a former Turkish ambassador to Washington,
told Reuters.

Muslim Turkey accepts that many Christian Armenians were killed by
Ottoman Turks in 1915, but strongly denies that up to 1.5 million
died and that it amounted to genocide.

A Western diplomat said the road map committed the sides to
establishing a joint history commission to look into the 1915 events,
a taboo subject in Turkey.

Armenian lobby groups have long pushed for a recognition of
genocide. But such an admission may infuriate nationalist public
opinion in Turkey.

GEOPOLITICAL ALLEGIANCES

Further complicating a solution to a Turkey-Armenian thaw are the
complex geopolitical allegiances in a region with strategic energy
reserves.

Azerbaijan, Turkey’s Muslim ally and Europe’s key hope as a supplier
of gas for the planned multi-billion dollar Nabucco pipeline that
would run through Turkey and cut Europe’s reliance on Russian gas,
fears losing leverage over Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. The
conflict remains unresolved.

Turkey closed its frontier with Armenia in 1993, in solidarity with
Azerbaijan in its war with Armenian-backed separatists in breakaway
Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia would have to recognise Turkey’s territorial integrity,
giving up historical claims to areas cleansed of Armenians during
the World War One killings and deportations.

"Both sides are going to have to bite hard bullets," said Semih Idiz, a
columnist for Turkey’s daily Radikal who follows international affairs.

"It is not going to be an easy sell for public opinions in either of
the two countries," Idiz said.

While the road map appears to show Ankara wants to separate the
two issues, Turkish official have been at pains to reiterate they
will normalise ties only in parallel with a process to settle
Nagorno-Karabakh.

"All the work being done is in line with the interests of both Turkish
and Azeri sides. There is no problem in this regard," Turkish President
Abdullah Gul said in Ankara before heading for an energy security
conference in Sofia on Friday.

Azerbaijan has been courted by Russia and has indicated it might
revise its energy policy towards Turkey.

"Armenia must use this opportunity and look not only to Turkey but
also to Azerbaijan and take steps to give assurances that it wants
progress in Nagorno-Karabakh," Logoglu said.

An open border would bring huge benefits to both sides.

NATO member Turkey would increase its sway in the Caucasus, where
a brief Russia-Georgia war last summer has heightened its desire
for stability.

It would extend its influence into Central Asia and win plaudits from
the European Union, which it wants to join, and the United States.

Landlocked Armenia, an impoverished country of three million people
which has always looked to Russia for protection, would gain key
access to Turkish and European markets.

"We are not at the end of the process, we are at the beginning," said
a political source close to the negotiations. (Additional reporting
by Matt Robinson in Yerevan; editing by Andrew Roche)