TIME TO CALM DOWN A LITTLE
by Ibrahim Karagul

Yeni Safak
April 16 2009
Turkey

There are attempts to create an extremely artificial and exaggerated
crisis – being shaped based on rumours rather than realities – between
Turkey and Azerbaijan; a crisis which is being exploited and which
will eventually cause serious damage to both countries. A disturbing
picture is being marketed through remarks such as "Turkey has turned
its back on Azerbaijan, it is collaborating with Armenia, it has sold
Baku, it has betrayed the Turkic world" and similarly nonsensical
ones, a picture that is instigating the Azeri public opinion against
Turkey and that has even a tendency to turn into an enmity against
the Justice and Development Party, AKP, on a domestic scale.

An amateurish crisis is being concocted. A disquieting goal that will
drag Azerbaijan to commit a historic mistake and that will force Turkey
to retreat from its position in the region can be detected. This is
a situation in which the secret agendas are mixed with realities and
natural reactions, in which narrow power schemes directed against
Turkey and Azerbaijan coexist with multinational scenarios involving
the Caucasus, and in which covert operations shape the infrastructure
for Turkish enmity -as was previously experience in Kyrgyzstan and
Kazakhstan.

Both Baku and Ankara have to be extremely careful. The public both in
Azerbaijan and Turkey should use their common sense. The perpetrators
of this scheme are exploiting the sensitivities, the weaknesses, and
the vulnerabilities of the two countries, the two capitals and the two
communities. Daily stances, policies, and tactics might mortgage the
future of especially Azerbaijan. A great wall can be erected along
Turkey’s Eastern Gate.

The strategy of severing the link between the East and the West, which
had been implemented in Caucasus for centuries, can be transported to
the present time. Why did Armenia occupy Azeri territories outside
Karabakh? Did it occupy those territories only to have a bargaining
chip? No, it occupied through Russian guidance. When Armenian troops
approached the Iranian border, the Iranian army immediately crossed
over to the Azeri side of the border to create a buffer zone. Here
the Russian-Iranian strategy was implemented. The same strategy has
been kept alive since the destruction of the Altinordu state. This
strategy never changed despite the changing administrations in both
Russia and Iran. This strategy is about dividing the East-West Turkic
world, the Sunni world. It succeeded today just as it has succeeded
in the past. The Caspian Basin, today’s Azerbaijan, has been the
venue for this scheme for centuries.

Therefore, especially Azeri territories outside Karabakh should
be liberated. This strategy is more important than Karabakh for
Russia and Iran. Consequently, negotiations on the withdrawal (of
Armenia) from these territories will seriously be sabotaged. It
might even lead to governmental problems in Baku. To what extent
is the Azerbaijani administration aware of this historic role? The
existence and power of states, countries, nations, and empires are
determined by such strategies and not by daily policies, rages, and
susceptibilities. Therefore, Baku should well know that the steps
it is about to take will determine the future of the country and its
people. Turkey should remember the essence of this border which was
more effective in its past as an empire.

The amelioration of Turkish-Armenian relations will not only be
beneficial for Armenia, but it will be beneficial for Turkey and
Azerbaijan as well. Naturally, Baku will and should use the cards
in its possession in a most effective way. Its territories are
under occupation, it has been extremely wronged, and international
public opinion does not seem to attach much importance to this
wrongdoing. Those who scheme over the resources of a country, which is
one of the most effective actors of the energy projects of the 21st
century and which has such a power, have been taking Azerbaijan’s
sensibilities very lightly. They have been unjust towards this
country. This reality should be known.

The issue, however, is not only the opening of the Armenian border. The
Azeri territories should be liberated as well. These two issues have
to be advanced simultaneously. Discussions on the genocide issue or the
activities of the Armenian lobby cannot be assessed alone just because
the United States so wishes. Turkey recognizes and will continue to
recognize this reality. Those who are exploiting the sensitive approach
of Ankara are making a new move in the geopolitical chess game of the
Caucasus by trying to channel Azerbaijan in the wrong direction. We are
fully aware of this move! The issue is far beyond Turkish-Armenian,
Turkish-Azerbaijani, Azerbaijani-Armenian relations; it is about the
consequences of the global power struggle being waged between Russia
and the West. When Russia loses Armenia, it will be totally distanced
from South Caucasus. Energy projects will be reshaped. A new stance
will be determined with regards to the future of the region.

Therefore, the Azeri public and even the administration are being
instigated by Russia and its allies. If this attempt to lead Azerbaijan
in the wrong direction succeeds, President Ilham Aliyev will have
committed a very grave mistake. He will have opened the door not
only to his own irrevocable servitude, but to that of his country and
nation. Those who have a look at the last century will realize this.

The trump card of "Russia against the West" is as valid as the
energy card. Aliyev should definitely use this card. He should
do so if the interests of his country necessitate it. He should,
however, not eliminate his country’s will. He should not let it
be held hostage. Currently, this is not the situation. There is
only a card and Aliyev is forcing it to be perceived. If, however,
he is inclined to use it, there might be trouble in Baku. Yes, even
this can happen. It is true that Armenia is very important for the
West. However, Azerbaijan is much more important and neither the
West nor Turkey can turn a blind eye to the reasons that will push
Azerbaijan to take such a decision.

For the time being, an experiment is being conducted over Azerbaijan
on the assumption that "Armenia will slide towards the Western
axis." Russia is playing its card. Even Iran is playing its card. Those
linked to circles making power calculations in Turkey are implementing
their own agenda. The confidence crisis between Turkey and Azerbaijan
should be surmounted immediately. So long as this is not surmounted,
everyone will continue to play their cards. This can, in the initial
stage, lead to instability in Azerbaijan.

Therefore, everyone should primarily try to calm down…