KARABAKH CONUNDRUM: INTENSIFIED DIPLOMACY VS. DOMESTIC TRANQUILITY
Anahit Danielyan

hetq.am/en/politics/lxh/
2009/04/23 | 15:04

Nagorno Karabakh important politics

Statements and developments regarding a settlement of the Karabakh
conflict have intensified of late and have lead to speculation that
a break-through in the talks is soon in coming. Such speculation
is based in part on the recent statements of U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton, alluding to the prospect in a solution to the Karabakh
conflict within the next several months.

Such increased activity is clearly conditioned on the stepped-up
measures taken by the super-powers and various international
institutions regarding the normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations. The spokesperson for the U.S. Secretary of State office
has even declared that the normalization of relations between Armenia
and Turkey must be achieved without preconditions and according to
a sensible timetable.

In the coming days the Minsk Group Co-chairs will once again visit the
region. Who they will meet while in Karabakh, besides the president,
is still unclear. But the signs of increased activity regarding a
settlement are quite apparent.

Against this back drop of swirling activity, both the authorities and
rank and file citizens in Karabakh exhibit amazing calm. All are caught
up in the mundane concerns of everyday life, as for the example the
negative effects of ill weather. Everything is a topic for discussion
except for a possible settlement of the Karabakh issue. In fact, the
topic is discussed more outside of Karabakh than within its borders.

The calm exhibited by the people of Karabakh can be interpreted in
several ways. The first is that the residents believe that they have
solved the problem already, through their own actions on the ground,
and thus the statements of foreigners do not concern them in the
least. Or else, they don’t find it necessary to state their position
on the matter for the umpteenth time, even though they occasionally
do so. Or else they simply believe that in the end, come what may,
the determining factor will be the voice of the Karabakh people. As
to what extent these arguments of theirs will prove to bear fruit,
only time will tell.

But it is more than clear that on-going developments demand a higher
sense of preparedness and alertness than presently exists. For isn’t
it the case that in the geo-political game such reasoning, however
sincere, is simply brushed away on the diplomatic back-burner.