MANEUVERS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT
Vladimir Mukhin

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 22, 2009 Wednesday
Russia

RUSSIA’S SOUTH CAUCASUS MANEUVERS AS A RESPONSE TO NATO EXERCISES;
The Russian-Georgian confrontation looks like it might escalate to a
conflict between Moscow and NATO. In the lead-up to NATO exercises
in Georgia, Moscow has started building up ground and naval forces
in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia is also planning large-scale
maneuvers.

The Russian-Georgian confrontation looks like it might escalate to a
conflict between Moscow and NATO. In the lead-up to NATO exercises
in Georgia (at Russia’s former Vaziani military base), Moscow has
started building up ground and naval forces in South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. Russia is also planning large-scale maneuvers.

The exercises at Vaziani will involve 1,300 military personnel from 19
countries – including Kazakhstan and Armenia, Russia’s allies in the
CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). North Caucasus
military district spokesman Andrei Bobrun told the RIA Novosti news
agency that the Russian exercises are a routine event – part of the
conclusion of the winter training season.

The Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters also told us that it is only
holding routine training and military maneuvers. Thus, Russia’s
military leadership is trying to avoid linking these exercises with
the NATO maneuvers in Georgia.

Last year, before Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia, the region
was swept by large-scale military exercises – some organized by
the Russian Armed Forces, others by NATO. NATO held its Immediate
Response 2008 international military maneuvers at the Vaziani military
base between July 15 and July 31. Meanwhile, Russia was holding the
Caucasus 2008 exercises near the Rok Tunnel, in Abkhazia, and at the
Black Sea Fleet – with around 8,000 troops involved. Military leaders
in Moscow denied any connection between the Russian maneuvers in the
Caucasus and NATO’s exercises in Georgia.

Russia’s latest maneuvers have already raised some apprehensions
in Georga. According to the Georgian Foreign Ministry, Russian Navy
ships are present in the Black Sea, in direct proximity to Georgia:
"at least twenty military vessels, carrying weapons." Allegedly,
Russia also plans "flights by fighter jets, transport planes, and
helicopters from military airfields around Georgia." The Georgian
Foreign Ministry claims that Russia has also "increased its military
presence on the occupied territories of Georgia."

In contrast to Defense Ministry leaders, the Russian Foreign Ministry
doesn’t deny the region’s high militarization or the direction of the
maneuvers. The Foreign Ministry has been quite frank about the scale
of Russia’s military preparations in the South Caucasus. Foreign
Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said the other day that these
"military exercise are a demonstration and a warning directed
at Georgia," due to "the concentration of Georgian commandos and
military hardware in direct proximity to Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
along with preparations for further acts of provocation right under
the nose of the international presence."

NATO’s decision to hold exercises in Georgia is viewed by Moscow as
an act of provocation. At his recent meeting with President Ilham
Aliyev of Azerbaijan, President Dmitri Medvedev said: "This is a wrong
and dangerous decision. When a military bloc holds exercises close
to points which used to have a high level of tension, and are still
difficult, this could lead to complications. This will not facilitate
a positive mood among the residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia."

Despite this, NATO not only decided to hold its maneuvers in Georgia,
but even invited Russia to participate. Moscow refused, of course –
and decided to show some muscle in the South Caucasus. For the first
time, the armed forces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will participate
in large-scale maneuvers organized by the Russian military. Following
consultations at the Russian Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry
on April 17, President Sergei Bagapsh of Abkhazia said: "The Western
nations are supporting Georgia, holding exercises. But we can respond
to those exercises in kind, by holding other exercises in both Abkhazia
and South Ossetia."

Thus, in response to the militarization of Georgia and NATO’s support
for Georgia, Moscow is taking analogous measures – building up its
military groups on the borders.

Obviously, under certain circumstances this could lead to localized
armed clashes, or perhaps even war – with an unpredictable outcome,
given present-day conditions. Russia has been weakened by the economic
crisis, ill-considered military reforms, and international isolation
in response to Russia’s handling of the Georgia question. But the
Kremlin and the Defense Ministry don’t seem to be too worried about
that. In the wake of last August’s five-day war in South Ossetia,
and flattering comments from President Medvedev and Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin, the top brass seems to have become convinced that
the Russian Armed Forces are invincible.