TURKEY AND ARMENIA AGREE ON RECONCILIATION ROADMAP

Deutsche Welle
April 23 2009

Groansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Turkish President
Abdullah Gul, left, and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan met in
2008Turkey and Armenia have reached an agreement on a comprehensive
framework to normalize relations. Deutsche Welle correspondent
Dorian Jones reports that the process carries some risk for the
Turkish government.

The Turkish minister for EU affairs, Egemen Bagis, said Thursday
the process, which is taking place under Swiss supervision, aimed to
bring about a fundamental change in bilateral relations between the
two countries.

"Better relations, more neighborly relations, more trade, more
opportunities and cooperation and peace – I see a light at the end
of the tunnel, that peace is possible," he said.

A senior Western diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity,
told Reuters news agency that the deal had not yet been signed but
that Turkey and Armenia had agreed on diplomatic ties, opening the
border and establishing commissions to address historical disputes.

"All the documents have been agreed in principle but it’s from the
signing that the clock starts ticking," the diplomat said. "It is
a finite period that is not very long. We are talking about weeks
or months."

Old wounds

Bildunterschrift: Groansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift:
Some Armenian groups have long opposed reconciliation with Turkey
In Armenia, several thousand protesters, mainly supporters of a
nationalist junior partner in the government, burned Turkish flags
and condemned the efforts at normalizing relations.

At the heart of ongoing tensions between the countries are accusations
by Armenia that Turkey was directly responsible for what it calls
the genocide of 1.5 million Armenians in 1915 during World War I,
a charge strongly denied by Ankara

Turkey officially admits that as many as 600,000 Armenians died
during the war and deportation from eastern Anatolia, but it insists
the deaths must be seen in the context of an Armenian uprising at a
time when Armenians were siding with invading Russian troops

Earlier this week, Ankara recalled its ambassador from Canada after
the Canadian prime minister supported the genocide charge.

Eyes on Obama

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Obama looks likely to ease pressure on Turkey after the talks with
Armenia Ankara now fears US president Barack Obama will do the
same. During his presidential campaign Obama said he would recognize
the genocide if elected. But Yasemin Congar, deputy editor of the
Turkish daily Taraf, said Obama may now hold back as a result of the
new rapprochement efforts.

"Washington wants to see Turkey open its border with Armenia,"
she said. "They want to see Ankara and Yerevan normalize diplomatic
relations and there is a movement to that end.

"I think Obama wants to give the message to Ankara that if this
process goes on it might even stop him from saying the ‘G’ word,
the genocide word in Washington."

During his visit to Turkey earlier this month Obama avoided using
the so-called "G" word. Instead he praised the Turkish and Armenian
rapprochement efforts.

Eve of remembrance

Bildunterschrift: Groansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift:
Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabahk displaced
hundreds of thousands The timing of Turkey’s announcement of its
agreement with Armenia is being seen as no coincidence. It comes just
one day before Armenians around the world remember those killed in
1915. Traditionally, US presidents deliver a speech to mark the event.

US-based Armenian groups have been lobbying Obama intensively to use
his expected speech to recognize the genocide. That is now seen as
unlikely in light of the new rapprochement efforts. Obama is also
aware that a reference to genocide would seriously damage US-Turkey
relations.

The Turkish government is paying a heavy domestic political price
for its rapprochement efforts, since Turkey’s close relationship to
Armenia’s rival, Azerbaijan, is seen to be at risk.

Sixteen years ago, Armenia occupied nearly 20 percent of Azerbaijan
following a war over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey
imposed a trade embargo against Armenia in support of its ally.

"All Turkish press, all political opposition, is using the Azerbaijani
issue against the government. I think the government finds itself in
a very difficult position," said political scientist Nuray Mert.

Such pressure is already having an effect, with the Turkish prime
minister now linking the ending of the embargo to the withdrawal of
Armenian forces from Azerbaijan. That is seen as unlikely anytime soon.

Turkish news reports have said Azerbaijan is disturbed by the
reconciliation efforts, which could lead to the reopening of the
Turkish-Armenian border.

But with Ankara facing increasing pressure from both the US and the
EU to end the embargo, the Turkish government now finds itself between
a rock and a hard place.