States News Service, USA
April 24, 2009 Friday
SOUTH CAUCASUS PRESENTS TANGLED WEB OF SHIFTING ALLEGIANCES
PRAGUE, Czech Republic
The following information was released by Radio Free Europe / Radio
Liberty:
Anticipation is in the air in the Armenian village of Margara.
Roads are being repaired. Visitors are inquiring about real estate
prices. Talk abounds of new hotels, shops, and restaurants.
A sleepy border hamlet of just 1,500 people, Magara is the site of the
only bridge linking Armenia with Turkey — a bridge that has not been
used since Ankara closed the border and cut off diplomatic relations
with Yerevan in 1993 over the war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Now, with talk of an impending Armenian-Turkish rapprochement reaching
a fever pitch, locals like 70-year-old Demaxia Manukian are hopeful
that their isolation is at an end.
"The more consumers there will be, the better it will be for
us. Infrastructure will improve — the streets and the water system,"
Manukian tells RFE/RL’s Armenian Service, stressing that the town will
need to be spruced up in order to impress all the new visitors if the
border opens.
"After all, it’s a matter of prestige. That’s why it has to get
better."
The thaw in relations between Ankara and Yerevan, which began shortly
after Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian took office a year ago, has
picked up steam in recent months with high-level backing from both the
United States and Russia.
The issue takes on added relevance this week, as Armenians on April 24
commemorate the 94th anniversary of the onset of mass killings of
ethnic Armenians by Ottoman Turks at the end of World War I — a
longstanding source of tension between Turkey and Armenia.
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry announced this week that the two sides had
agreed to a road map to normalize ties. In testimony before the
U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton praised Ankara and Yerevan for taking "bold steps" toward
reconciliation, adding that "normalizing relations and opening their
borders will foster a better environment for confronting that shared,
tragic history."
But the complex Turkish-Armenian relationship does not exist in a
vacuum. It is but one thread in a tangled web of grievances and
mistrust that have long plagued the South Caucasus — and sparked a
sometimes fractious race for influence among the international powers
drawn by the lure of energy and strategic location.
Historical Animosities
When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Turkey was the first country
to recognize Armenia’s independence, but the warm neighborly relations
were short-lived.
Turkey and Azerbaijan, both predominantly Muslim countries, are close
allies. When Armenia occupied Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region,
Ankara broke off relations with Yerevan and closed the border in
solidarity with its ally.
Azerbaijan remains deeply suspicious of a Turkish-Armenian
reconciliation and has hinted that it would scuttle the regional
balance if its interests are not safeguarded.
Moreover, Yerevan’s longstanding claim that the mass killings of
Armenians in the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I constituted
genocide infuriates Ankara and has long been a roadblock to
normalizing ties.
The Turkey-Armenia road map, brokered by Switzerland, comes as Armenia
and Azerbaijan appear to be edging closer to a resolution of the
Karabakh standoff, with apparent help from Moscow.
Both the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders traveled to Russia this week
for talks with officials, and both offered carefully worded, but
optimistic, assessments of the talks.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, which fears it will be the odd man out in a
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, has turned a cold shoulder to its
traditional allies in Ankara in recent weeks, with Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev refusing a recent invitation to travel to
Turkey.
At the same time, Baku has been cozying up to Moscow.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (right) with Russia’s Dmitry
Medvedev in Barbikha on April 17
Baku may be seeking to remind Ankara that as the sole energy supplier
in the South Caucasus, it is free to choose its friends, and its
issues. Analysts say Turkey is trying desperately to persuade
Azerbaijan that an opening to Armenia is in everybody’s interests.
"The Turkish strategic perspective and the message that they
constantly articulate to Baku is that over the longer term, a
normalization with Armenia will actually enhance Turkish leverage and
influence in the region — which, from the Turkish point of view is
good for Ankara and good for Baku," says Richard Giragosian, director
of the Yerevan-based Center for National and International Studies.
"This is a Turkish strategic agenda based on Turkish national
interests. It is not to curry favor with Brussels, nor is it to please
Washington. But in the long run from a Turkish perspective, it’s good
for the region, it’s good for Azerbaijan, and it’s good for Turkey."
Baku, however, appears unconvinced.
During his visit to Moscow on April 17, Aliyev said he saw no
obstacles to cutting a deal to sell natural gas to Russia’s
Gazprom. Aliyev added that Baku hoped to diversify its natural gas
exports, most of which are currently sent west to Europe via Turkey.
Such a move would be a severe blow to the proposed U.S.- and EU-backed
Nabucco pipeline, which would transport gas from Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan to Europe via the South Caucasus, bypassing Russia.
Baku has also warned that an open Turkish-Armenian border "could lead
to tensions in the region and would be contradictory to the interests
of Azerbaijan."
Shifting Alliances
Analysts say Aliyev is attempting play the gas card to get the best
possible deal in a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Specifically, Baku is seeking Russian support for the
withdrawal of Armenian troops from regions surrounding
Nagorno-Karabakh.
A Karabakh resolution would be a feather in Moscow’s cap as it seeks
to reassert itself in its former Soviet territories. But a far greater
draw — for Moscow and all the international powers keeping toeholds
in the South Caucasus — is energy.
The South Caucasus’ role as a transit hub for oil and gas from the
Caspian Sea and Central Asia to Europe is casting a long shadow over
the ongoing process as Russia and the West seek to control these
crucial energy routes. Ilgar Mammadov, a Baku-based political analyst,
says "everybody is playing a sophisticated game."
After the Armenian-Turkish road map was announced on April 22, the
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry released a statement saying that "the
normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations must proceed in parallel
with the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied lands of
Azerbaijan."
But Mammadov says Baku’s strategy has risks, as it could push
Azerbaijan even "farther into the hands of Russia" and away from the
West.
"Baku is trying to use the advantage of its geopolitical location to
influence the position of its European and American partners. But if
the Russians respond to this policy in a very material way, like
pulling Armenian forces back from some of the occupied territories, I
think the foreign policy orientation of this regime in Baku may become
irreversible," Mammadov says.
If the Russians respond to this policy in a very material way, like
pulling Armenian forces back from some of the occupied territories, I
think the foreign policy orientation of this regime in Baku may become
irreversible.
The moves toward Moscow by Baku, which until now has enjoyed a degree
of independence due to its energy wealth, are being watched nervously
in Georgia, whose ties with Russia have sunk in recent years,
bottoming out during the five-day war over South Ossetia in August.
With no energy resources of its own, and an international partner —
the United States — that has grown more accommodating of Moscow in
recent months, Georgia may be in the position to suffer most in the
event of a resurgence of Russian influence in the region.
Armenia, which has the strongest traditional ties with Moscow despite
its relative lack of resources, may prove a more equal partner if the
border with Turkey is opened and its commercial isolation ends. In
this way, Russia has a vested interest in seeing the Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement move forward, and may be using the Karabakh process to
help nudge it along.
In a recent interview with RFE/RL, Deputy U.S. Assistant Secretary of
State Matthew Bryza — who is one of three co-chairmen of
OSCE-sponsored mediation on Karabakh — stressed that Washington sees
the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation and a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement
as "separate tracks." He added, however, that negotiations on Karabakh
are gaining momentum.
"I honestly can say that I feel more than ever a constructive spirit
and that we are actually entering a new phase, I hope, of the
negotiations," Bryza said. "The presidents spent a year getting to
know each other a bit and knowing each other’s positions. And now I
feel we are moving to a new phase with a deeper more detailed
discussion of the remaining elements of the basic principles that need
to be resolved."
Football Diplomacy 2.0
Analysts say, however, that Turkish-Armenian reconciliation will
likely precede any settlement on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Sabina Freizer, director of the Brussels-based The International
Crisis Group’s Europe program says many Caucasus-watchers are pointing
to October, when Sarkisian is due to visit Turkey to watch a World Cup
qualifying soccer match between Armenia and Turkey, as a possible date
to close the deal.
"I am quite optimistic and I believe that if the border is opened and
diplomatic relations are established this will change things
fundamentally in the South Caucasus. I personally believe that at this
point the two sides seem to be close enough that the border should
open quite quickly," Freizer said. "But of course the timing is very
political. One date that people are talking about is during President
Sarkisian’s visit to Turkey, if it occurs in October. That might be a
good time to open the border."
If an agreement is reached in time for Sarkisian’s visit, it would
provide a tidy conclusion to the "football diplomacy" that the
Armenian president began in September, when he hosted Turkish
President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan to watch the last match between the
two national teams.
While the United States has strongly backed Turkey and Armenia
normalizing relations, the momentum is also causing some political
discomfort for U.S. President Barack Obama.
During a visit to Turkey earlier this month, Obama encouraged the
talks between Ankara and Yerevan, saying they "could bear fruit very
quickly."
The recent progress, however, will make it difficult for Obama to make
good on a campaign promise to Armenian-Americans to recognize the
90-year-old mass killings as genocide. Such a move now would infuriate
Turkey and potentially scuttle any deal to open the Armenian border.
But back in the border village of Margara, residents say they are
ready to move beyond painful historical grievances.
Three of Demaxia Manukian’s uncles perished in the mass killings, but
he nevertheless says he is ready to move on.
"There are Turks and there are Armenians. The Turks are human beings,
too. They rock their children in their cradles just like we do,"
Manukian said. "But when politics get injected into this, that is the
danger."