ARMENIA HAS GOOD CHANCES TO BECOME A CENTRAL FORCE IN THE REGION
PanARMENIAN.Net
28.04.2009 15:25 GMT+04:00
The route map on Armenian-Turkish ties normalization has given rise to
various reactions in public, political and analytical circles. However,
to obtain a more comprehensive and accurate picture, it is necessary to
reduce the emotional component, David Babayan, a political scientist
from Karabakh, writes in an article entitled "Armenian Turkish
geo-politics: real situation and perspectives".
The political scientist finds that domestic policy requires sober
approach to different problems. "It doesn’t mean that the emotional
component should be absolutely ignored in politics, because this is
a kind of immune system for the nation; once it’s lost, the state
may find itself in a very complicated situation," the article says.
According to Babayan, if Turkism becomes a principal trend in Turkey’s
policy, it will produce a direct impact on the country’s multi-million
Kurdish population whose native land, by the way, was adjacent to the
South Caucasian region. "Turkism will arouse serious concerns among
Kurds and seriously impact their policy."
Clearly, Turkey will have to compensate the existing dissatisfaction
and distrust by proposing a national ideology capable of ensuring
stability and internal self-satisfaction in Turkish public. The only
way to achieve that is to pursue the Islam religion. Actually, by
attacking Israel, Ankara has officially recognized Islamic religion
as its national ideology. In view of Turkey’s more active role in the
South Caucasus, especially, the combination of Turkism and Islamist
religion, Armenia is assuming an increasingly important role for
Georgia, Iran, Israel and the Arab world. Armenia has good chances
for becoming a central force in the region.
Studying the Armenian-Turkish geopolitics, we are confronted the
following question: what’s the price of that? "If Ankara proposes
the Azerbaijani scenario of Karabakh settlement as a precondition
(i.e. the de-facto and step-by-step partition of Artsakh), then,
all the possibilities becoming a central force will vanish. The
loss of Artsakh is fraught with an overwhelming shock, leading to
the collapse of the nation. Such scenario is certainly unacceptable,
especially considering that Ankara will hardly insist on its previous
statement on the Armenian-Turkish ties normalization being a parallel
process with Karabakh settlement. The country is now required to
enter Tran Caucasus and establish firm positions in any part of the
region except Azerbaijan. Only in that case can Turkey resort to
other methods. But if we conduct a balanced and well-reasoned policy,
we’ll really manage to attain desired results," he noted.